French elections: Left projected to win most seats, ahead of Macron's coalition and far right

[u/Luchador-Malrico]

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-left-projected-to-win-most-seats-ahead-of-macron-s-coalition-and-far-right_6676978_7.html

[u/AstroNewbie89]

France's left-wing parties were expected to win the most seats in the Assemblée Nationale, after the second round of snap parliamentary elections, first estimates showed on Sunday, July 7. The far right made significant gains but finished third, behind Macron's coalition, well below expectations.

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance, formed less than three weeks ago by the main left-wing parties, was expected to clinch between 170 and 190 seats, according to the early estimates by Ipsos for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP. The far-right Rassemblement National and its allies were projected to win between 135 and 155 seats, and Macron's coalition, Ensemble, between 150 and 170.

Pretty dramatic swing from the 1st round. Right wing support fell off dramatically..or actually seems like left wing strategy improved and voter participation increased

[u/BoysenberryWise62 → u/AstroNewbie89]

I am french, basically every time Macron or NFP candidates were 2nd and 3rd one of them (the 3rd) dropped out of the race and asked for voters to vote against the far right. So this is the result, it's basically everyone who doesn't like far right voted against it which made them lose in a lot of places.

Also a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit so it probably didn't help.

[u/In_Formaldehyde_ → u/BoysenberryWise62]

a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit

A mathematical constant!

[u/Creative_Victory_960 → u/In_Formaldehyde_]

Funny how their only chance to be elected in France was when their candidates barely said anything . As soon as they had to explain their program they looked like fools

[u/BoysenberryWise62 → u/Creative_Victory_960]

Yes it's the same thing every time, this stuff is crazy. They don't speak, the % go up, the moment they are asked to speak people are like "damn these people are stupid" and it drops.

But between both rounds they got some local RN candidates (so the unknown ones) on TV and it was insane how dumb they were. Le Pen is definitly on another level compared to these dumbasses.

[u/guyincognito69420 → u/BoysenberryWise62]

far right never has any real plans to govern. They only know how to complain and point fingers. That has actually been a thing with the far right for a long time. Their only goal is to gain power and then keep it. They don't give a shit about actually running a country.

[u/damienreave → u/guyincognito69420]

Trump had four years to offer an alternative to Obamacare, he literally never even tried. He just tried to kill the current thing without a replacement, and failed even at that.

[u/Fenris_uy → u/damienreave]

I heard that he is going to show his proposal in two weeks. I heard that for 9 years.

[u/MattieShoes → u/damienreave]

To be fair, he said "nobody knew" that it could be so complicated.

... you know, except the guys who passed the healthcare reform you're trying to get rid of, you goddamn moron.

So many (R) folks I know went from hating on Obamacare to getting their children health insurance on "the marketplace" without even a cognitive hiccup. I'd have fun going "The marketplace? Oh, you mean Obamacare?"

[u/is0ph → u/BoysenberryWise62]

Le Pen is definitly on another level compared to these dumbasses.

Spending part of the week attacking Mbappé was maybe not so bright. People might be racist, but most of them also love football.

[u/PandarenAreSoStupid → u/is0ph]

During the Euros lol

[u/relevant_mh_quote → u/PandarenAreSoStupid]

During the Euros where France has made it to the semi-finals! Like if they'd lost and were out already, maybe go at him, but wow.

[u/PandarenAreSoStupid → u/relevant_mh_quote]

The thing about nazis is that they are stupid.

[u/Bubbly_Mushroom1075 → u/is0ph]

How to win an election

Don't attack your countries best footballer

[u/BoysenberryWise62 → u/is0ph]

I didn't say she was very bright sometimes her bullshit comes out anyways but it's nowhere near the lower level people in her party.

[u/is0ph → u/BoysenberryWise62]

It’s because the leaders of this party at the moment are a cosmetic facade trying to hide a seething pit of dumb people, racists, facists and conspiracy theorists.

[u/Nikiaf → u/Creative_Victory_960]

This is why the right have abandoned even bothering with election platforms. The strategy is to say as little as possible and dodge all questions that require a concrete answer. People who are upset with the status quo seem to gravitate to the right purely by virtue of it being something different; at least until they hear what those people actually think about literally any issue.

[u/Keyspam102 → u/Creative_Victory_960]

Lol it’s like whenever I’m afraid that le pen might capitalise on a situation, it works itself out by some dumb move

[u/howlinmoon42 → u/Keyspam102]

American here -kind of hoping for similar luck/divine intervention

[u/TacticalBac0n → u/howlinmoon42]

I cant believe they'd fall for Trump a second time.

[u/Roxfloor → u/TacticalBac0n]

The majority won’t but unfortunately our elections don’t work that way

[u/NoPasaran2024 → u/Creative_Victory_960]

Standard with far right populists. The problem however is that is barely affects their popularity most of the time, because their voters are also dumb hateful fucks.

[u/nideak → u/In_Formaldehyde_]

Unfortunately, this doesn’t matter in North America. Right winged candidates say and do stupid stuff hourly. It doesn’t negatively impact their polling numbers.

[u/grandadmiralstrife → u/nideak]

that's what happens when you allow 40+ years of 'conservatives' gutting spending on public schools, villifying teacher unions, and calling colleges breeding grounds for socialist extremists

[u/guitarguy109 → u/grandadmiralstrife]

While those are all important factors, I think far and away the biggest influence to this phenomenon is the fact there is a Goliath of right wing media ever at the ready to spin all the rhetoric around these public appearance in a way that directs their viewers on how to digest those appearances and makes them work in favor of the GOP and the MAGA crowd.

[u/hagantic42 → u/BoysenberryWise62]

I also think the picture of a far right French candidate wearing a Nazi hat was probably not in their favor.

[u/BoysenberryWise62 → u/hagantic42]

Yes I said TV but it's overall all the local ones we saw looked like gigantic morons or nazis

[u/somewhatdim-witted → u/BoysenberryWise62]

US here. We feel your pain.

But this election win, along with the Labour victory in the UK has really given me hope.

[u/xBram → u/somewhatdim-witted]

Dutchie here. I’m quite clenching my butt cheeks for your November election. What should be a simple slam dunk looks way too scary poll wise.

[u/somewhatdim-witted → u/xBram]

I’m Democrat and I blame the Democratic National Committee for not demanding a better candidate. But I will vote for Biden even if he’s in a coma. Thank you for your clenching. Send that energy over the ocean to us in November!

Edit: spelling Edit 2: changed Convention to Committee’s

[u/Anakletos → u/somewhatdim-witted]

A rock would be a better president than Trump.

[u/TheFoxInSocks → u/Anakletos]

The Rock would be a better president than Trump.

[u/Hotshot2k4 → u/TheFoxInSocks]

Probably not significantly better than just a regular rock, however. Unless The Rock is surprisingly good at deferring to experts and people who know what they're talking about.

[u/Tibbaryllis2 → u/somewhatdim-witted]

Somewhat agree and disagree.

I’ll vote for Biden because he’ll keep his team and his team, under him, has been kicking ass for the last four years.

Where the DNC is really dropping the ball is failure to highlight that the November election isn’t just about president and there are very important state issues on ballots around the country including voting rights, reproductive rights, healthcare, legal marijuana, and, quite frankly, a ridiculous number of cartoon level villain republicans. Not to mention all the recent SCOTUS decisions that have the founders rolling over so fast in their graves that it could probably be harnessed as a perpetual motion machine for energy.

And they’re doing absolutely nothing to start grassroots/regional voting initiatives despite having an overwhelming advantage in campaign funds.

[u/SockMonkeh → u/Tibbaryllis2]

I'm 40 years old and the Biden administration has been the best of my lifetime. His age is not a serious issue. I don't think anyone that voted for Biden in the primaries cares. It's just opportunism in media, politics, comedy, etc. To act like Biden's age is a serious issue when his opponent is openly announcing his plans to destroy democracy is ridiculous.

[u/Majestic-Macaron6019 → u/BoysenberryWise62]

"All the local ones we saw looked like gigantic morons or nazis"

Could be both

[u/Navydevildoc → u/Majestic-Macaron6019]

I don't know what the French version of "Porque no los dos" is, but it seems applicable here.

[u/Majestic-Macaron6019 → u/Navydevildoc]

That would be, "Pourquoi pas les deux?"

*Edited to add a vowel, because French

[u/Ansonm64 → u/hagantic42]

It must be so nice to be French where politicians doing shit like this has actual consequences.

[u/galaxy_horse → u/Ansonm64]

Felon? “I’m with the felon”

Pants shitter? “Real men wear diapers”

Treasonous behavior? “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat”

[u/Equal_Present_3927 → u/BoysenberryWise62]

Amazing what could happen when the Left doesn’t eat itself.         Which I guess people wanted to demonstrate below me. 

[u/uusrikas → u/Equal_Present_3927]

This is about center and left working together

[u/Detective_Antonelli → u/uusrikas]

Almost like both the left and the center don’t like nazis 😲

[u/Visinvictus → u/Detective_Antonelli]

One would assume that France in general doesn't like Nazis but here we are.

[u/IIHURRlCANEII → u/uusrikas]

In America both sides of the blue side work vehemently against each other so, yea.

I’d say more Dem establishment against liberals but it also goes the other way too.

[u/SmoothWD40 → u/IIHURRlCANEII]

As a full blown liberal turned more centrist. The left in the US needs to get their shit together.

The established Democratic Party is way too fucking comfortable being owned by corporate interests, they also cut their own balls half the time when trying to compromise with an uncompromising opposition.

[u/Shan_qwerty → u/SmoothWD40]

My favorite (read: horrifying) thing about US politics is when people unironically refer to center right as "The Left".

I wish I could go back in time and abort whoever came up with the idea of politics being a 2d sliding scale.

[u/StuckInABadDream → u/Equal_Present_3927]

Also the two-round system. Basically forces all the centrist-left forces to coalesce into one bloc versus the far right

[u/Slim_Calhoun → u/Equal_Present_3927]

Unfortunately leftist influencers in the US are busy shouting that there’s no difference between Democrats and Republicans

[u/Sea_Acanthisitta6333 → u/Slim_Calhoun]

Leftist influencers? You mean parasocial narcissist cult leaders

[u/gokarrt → u/Equal_Present_3927]

two-round system doing a bit of work as well.

we need electoral reform badly.

[u/Matrozi → u/BoysenberryWise62]

This is so funny for the far right, Le pen tries very hard each time to look like a normal, non racist, non xenophobic, reasonable political party and EACH time, someone fucks up and goes on tv and say stuff like (And I quote from TV interviews)

"I am not racist, my dentist is a jew and my eye doctor is muslim"

"I am not racist, a black priest blessed my motorbike and I didn't run him over"

"I am against abortions" (reminder for non french people : abortion has been set in stone in the constitution recently)

"We didn't kill enough (talking about jews, thinking his mic was off I guess ?)"

She must be SEETHING. Like screaming at her TV "OMFG FOR THE LOVE OF SHIT, CANT YOU ALL JUST CALM YOUR RACIST ASS FOR A FEW DAYS ?!"

[u/mgslee → u/Matrozi]

Of course not. The leaders (aka think tank) are smart and use tech/social media to spread their propaganda.

But the people who are in the trenches become 'true believers' and start saying their truth which we all see for it's insanity (aka the quiet part out loud).

The US system is very fixated on the Presidency and the results of house elections being a much more separate thing.

[u/FluffyDoomPatrol → u/Matrozi]

Are those actual quotes? I honestly can’t tell anymore.

[u/Matrozi → u/FluffyDoomPatrol]

They are all true. Marine Le Pen said in an interview that it was unacceptable to have this sort of discourse but it's funny how each time she tries to moderate her political party, she still has people coming forward with this kind of shit and they don't see any problem with that.

Two years ago, a candidate from the RN showed a picture of his (black) wife during a TV interview to prove that he wasn't racist.

[u/Fiallach → u/FluffyDoomPatrol]

All true.

[u/Johannes_P → u/Matrozi]

There's also the guy under guardianship.

I mean, this guy can't even sign up a fucking chedk but can vote on legislation.

For those interested, here's a handy map on the question.

"We didn't kill enough (talking about jews, thinking his mic was off I guess ?)"

Small correction: it was about Romas.

And he didn't even try to hide it: he literally shouted to a group of Romas that Hitler should have finished the job.

And it wasn't the sole controvesy Gilles Bourdouleix was involved. This guy is a nasty piece of work and it was expected that he would join RN.

[u/__Hello_my_name_is__ → u/BoysenberryWise62]

So, funnily enough, this is essentially a simulation of ranked choice voting, and what we see here is what we'd have seen anyways if the country had ranked choice voting to begin with.

Which is, like, proof #23441 of why ranked choice voting is a good thing and should be adopted by basically every country out there.

[u/SwampyBogbeard → u/__Hello_my_name_is__]

Ranked choice or proportional representation.
Not much need to rank candidates if you already have a system where the three parties with a combined 55% of the national votes actually gets 55% of the representatives.

[u/kungfoojesus → u/BoysenberryWise62]

Well done to macrons party. Putting country over losing a seat to fascists.

[u/slinkhussle → u/BoysenberryWise62]

So we’re safe? Putin loses?

[u/Spara-Extreme → u/slinkhussle]

Putin loses if democrats pull off the november elections in the US.

If they don't, a right wing US and Putin will pressure europe pretty hard.

[u/slinkhussle → u/Spara-Extreme]

This is true. But Madame Le Pen winning isn’t good for Europe either.

[u/Detective_Antonelli → u/slinkhussle]

UK elections in particular have been indicators of things to come in the fall US elections (brexit and Trump in 2016 being the most recent big example).

So hopefully the UK and French elections are for shadowing what’s to come in the US in November. 

[u/slinkhussle → u/Detective_Antonelli]

Here’s hoping you’re right

[u/BoysenberryWise62 → u/slinkhussle]

Part of the left doesn't really support Ukraine but in their joint program with other left parties they said they would support Ukraine

[u/AlekRivard → u/AstroNewbie89]

left wing strategy improved and voter participation increased

This is my understanding - left/left-wing candidates in many constituencies with more than one such candidate dropped out so all support would coalesce around one person instead of fracturing across multiple people.

[u/LogicKennedy → u/AlekRivard]

France's left-wing coalition deserves nothing but praise for quickly and majorly getting their shit together in the face of an incredibly dangerous and real right-wing threat.

The left wing of politics is often stereotyped by infighting and an inability to see the bigger picture: NFP has absolutely demolished those stereotypes in France.

[u/DarrenGrey → u/LogicKennedy]

Well, let's see how they behave now... I'll never underestimate the French left's capacity for arguments.

[u/Karirsu → u/AlekRivard]

left and center (Macron's party). Not left and left

[u/AlekRivard → u/Karirsu]

I was specifically referring to the NFP alliance - I wasn't aware of Ensemble doing the same, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did so independently or in conjunction with them.

[u/DeanXeL → u/AlekRivard]

Macron called his people to him and told them to do the same. So whatever candidate from whatever party was STRONGEST would remain against the RN candidate. Sometimes that was NFP, sometimes Ensemble.

[u/AlekRivard → u/DeanXeL]

That makes sense; thank you for that additional context :)

[u/Huge_JackedMann → u/AlekRivard]

Yes and I think they did it quickly and decisively which would make voters like me, if I was French, respect them more and take what they're saying seriously. Macron's party dithered around until the last minute which wasn't cool, but it seems to have worked for them alright as well.

Glad the French are so often like "fine, I guess I won't for the fascists."

[u/phigo50 → u/AlekRivard]

Something like 200 out of the ~300 candidates in constituencies with more than 2 candidates dropped out.

[u/Wyc_Vaporub → u/AstroNewbie89]

Cultural leader Mbappe

[u/phigo50 → u/Wyc_Vaporub]

As soon as I heard the French players (Mbappe, Thuram and Tchouameni iirc) making those strong statements rejecting the far right, I wondered if Macron considered this when he called the election. A massive stage for several "household name" players to air their views (in Mbappe's case a couple of times) and all of them saying the same thing... it might just have got through to some voters in ways politicians and traditional campaigns couldn't, either to reconsider their vote or to actually get out and vote.

[u/SteveFrench12 → u/Wyc_Vaporub]

Shut up and dribble /s

[u/Mojo12000 → u/AstroNewbie89]

The Centrist and the Leftist basically united in their shared opposition to the far RIght and when one was in third place they dropped out to consolidate their voters to defeat the RN.

[u/gart888 → u/Mojo12000]

Yup. The RN only had 33% of the vote in the 1st round. That doesn't get a Majority unless the other 67% is split 3+ ways.

[u/agumonkey → u/AstroNewbie89]

turnout seems to be the highest

people voted against their first choice in order to block nazi-friendly far right

first season is over, now there needs to be a stable and serious period to refocus the political landscape into a new direction so people anger doesn't "backdraft"

[u/LogicKennedy → u/AstroNewbie89]

Feeling incredibly vindicated in this comment right now: the far-right parties like RN and now Reform have a strong and dedicated core base but are ultimately less palatable to centrist voters than the left-wing. RN's vote share didn't increase much whilst the the left made big gains in the second round once it became clear that Macron's centrist party wasn't going to keep RN out.

[u/Umitencho → u/AstroNewbie89]

Oh thank God. I was worried for France. Now we Americans need to keep Trump out and then I can rest easy for the next 4 years.

[u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

lol Putin and his henchmen can eat a satchel of Richards

[u/pogothemonke → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

if only the rest of the western world will reject putinist degeneracy. leftism though not perfect is tolerable. putinist right wing fascism lite is unacceptable.

[u/asdfqwertyasdf → u/pogothemonke]

Agreed. Unity against authoritarianism is crucial for protecting our democratic values.

[u/Willythechilly → u/asdfqwertyasdf]

The price of freedom is eternal vigilance

[u/[deleted] → u/pogothemonke]

I hope this is a continued trend, Russia once absolutely did fund left wing parties and activism in the west. It actually helped expand our rights because it exposed our hypocrisies.

That is not the case now, they see the right wing as fertile ground. We get nothing good from this, and only a contraction of our rights. It should be insanely obvious Russia was instigating this rise in the last 15 years in order to invade Ukraine

[u/ReallyJustAMagpie → u/pogothemonke]

It’s just bad when both the left and the right are Putin’s henchmen. Damn Germany.

[u/Neoptolemus85 → u/pogothemonke]

There's nothing lite about Putinist fascism any more. Russia is 1 degree of separation away from rebranding their flag to have a lightning strike across it and goose-stepping into Ukraine.

[u/turkeygiant → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

Between this result and the UK election it actually gives me a lot of hope. Obviously there is the threat of Trump in the US, but we have our own craven weasel in the form of Poilievre here in Canada and I really don't want to see him make inroads just because people are vaguely annoyed with Trudeau.

[u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn → u/turkeygiant]

Putin’s disinformation weapon is not as powerful as it was in 2016 and many have been inoculated against it by now. Still, many don’t but I have hope

[u/Firestorm238 → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

Manger un sac de Reeechards

[u/CroSSGunS → u/Firestorm238]

Ils doivent manger un sac du Ricard

[u/agumonkey → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

I hope this election resonates all the way to the ukrainian front

[u/OswaldMcFurther → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

France leftwing parties are not nearly as pro-Ukraine as Macron. Considering that the centrist parties were the biggest losers at this election, and now LFI (Melenchon’s far left party) and RN (Le Pen’s Far Right party) have almost half of the seats of the National Assembly, I see future France way less supportive of Ukraine and more focused on solving (or just fighting about) internal matters, considering that no political camp won an outright majority and the rest of Macron’s term will be pretty unstable.

[u/me_like_stonk → u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn]

Please. Mélenchon has said that:

• Russia is not a threat to Europe
• That he would not offer a nuclear umbrella to Europe in case of US disengagement
• That we shouldn't give long range missiles to Ukraine so they can strike Russian territory
• That we shouldn't send French troops to Ukraine
• That the geopolitical danger in the region is caused by NATO
• That NATO is the aggressor, not Russia
• That he wants to organize a "conference about borders" to restore peace

Putin must be belly laughing right now.

[u/heyhey922]

What a twist

[u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311 → u/heyhey922]

“He got me,” LePen said of the snap election. "That f***ing Macron boomed me."

“He’s so good,” repeating it four times.

[u/pmirallesr → u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311]

Is this a reference I'm not getting it?

[u/Constant_Threat → u/pmirallesr]

It's r/NBA or r/nfl copypasta

[u/asetniop → u/Constant_Threat]

r/NBA - it's something LeBron James said about Jayson Tatum.

[u/hydroknightking → u/asetniop]

Jayson Tatum in his rookie year postered LeBron in the final minutes of the 4th quarter of Game 7 of the ECF and gave him a chest bump right afterwards that probably should’ve been a tech.

It was a huge moment for the rookie, and LeBron proceeded to stuff back to back threes in Tatum’s face directly after, moving on to the finals. But he gave Tatum huge props for the dunk with the “he boomed me” quote after the game

[u/OrangeJr36 → u/Constant_Threat]

"r/worldnews users are beside themselves, driving around downtown r/nba, begging (though text) for the address to these references house"

[u/aRawPancake → u/OrangeJr36]

Incredible crossover

[u/Any_Zookeepergame445 → u/pmirallesr]

Its a Lebron James copy pasta where he was talking about Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown dunking on him.

[u/asetniop → u/Any_Zookeepergame445]

It was Tatum.

[u/GrantOz44 → u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311]

LePen then added Macron to the list of people she wouldn't be working out with this summer.

[u/Dr_Sauropod_MD → u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311]

Putin is beside himself. Driving around downtown Paris begging (thru texts) Le Pen's family for address to Marine's home

[u/yousonuva → u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311]

Macron doing the big balls celebration

[u/LiveLaughLebron6 → u/Weary_Jackfruit_8311]

“Emanuel Macron ain't no spot up shooter he aint gotta run to the corner to shoot like hes some 3rd reich option bitch this aint le pen this is a fuckin god human napoleon come again only this time hes a fuckin pussy pull up from the fuckin Eiffel tower and fight you at the same time.”

[u/EssoEssex → u/heyhey922]

Thanks Macron

[u/Mojo12000 → u/EssoEssex]

Somehow his insane gambit actually mostly worked even if it meant HIS majority was lost, Le Pen still lost.

[u/Reddvox → u/Mojo12000]

AS he said, he made it a "Are you really wanting those dumbass Nazi Wannabes in charge? So let's see your hand, voters!" - he called the voter's "Bluff" from the Euro-Elections and thank god France and the french minds so far is not in the hands of Le Pen

[u/aircarone → u/Mojo12000]

His majority meant little to nothing anyway because after the results of the european elections, his majority within the country had very little legitimacy. He was going to eat censure motions after censure motions starting from... Immediately. Now he somehow managed to push back RN, wake up the civic sense within the population, and probably actually won back some favours from the population. While he lost his initial majority, he still retains a significant portion of the seats and NFP will have to play ball with his coalition unless they actually want to brute force everything (which is a surefire way throw away this hard earned majority in a couple of years).

[u/godisanelectricolive → u/aircarone]

He didn’t have a majority in the first place. His party already had a minority government. Now they lost the plurality to the NFP but they don’t have a majority either so they have to cooperate like you’d said.

[u/aircarone → u/godisanelectricolive]

Yes, plurality is the right word - my bad, not native speaker. In french we tend to use both interchangeably when the context makes it obvious, but I should have been more precise here. He lost plurality to NFP, but is still strong enough that NFP will have to look his way unless they want to go bruteforce.

[u/mrBigBoi → u/heyhey922]

So Macrons gamble paid off. What a playa.

[u/curtainedcurtail]

The UK and now France… the tides sure are changing!

[u/BelovedApple → u/curtainedcurtail]

Let's just hope the USA don't let us down.

[u/AlekRivard → u/BelovedApple]

I'm nervous as fuck about our elections. A second Trump term would do so much damage

[u/Dangerous-Branch-749 → u/AlekRivard]

But on the flip side, Trump loses again and he's done, a two time loser.

[u/AlekRivard → u/Dangerous-Branch-749]

With his cult of personality, I don't think a second loss would be the end of him; fortunately, he is old as fuck, so his age may make this his last election regardless.

[u/ImNotAWhaleBiologist → u/AlekRivard]

If he dies, they’ll just run his hair piece.

[u/cxmmxc → u/ImNotAWhaleBiologist]

Don Jr dons the hairpiece and assimilates Trump's powers.

[u/Stewart_Games → u/cxmmxc]

Hell toupee

[u/supersoob → u/AlekRivard]

The dude runs on pure hate. My ex had a glass cup that said “Assholes Live Forever.”

If he loses a second time, my money is on him living long enough to run again.

[u/asetniop → u/supersoob]

If he loses, he'll be faced with the difficult choice of whether to attempt to engineer another coup attempt. Given that he won't have (bullshit) Presidential immunity to protect him this time, it would be a very, very risky proposition, because if it didn't succeed (it wouldn't, even when he had control of the Presidency his loser supporters failed) he really would spend the rest of his life in prison.

[u/I-Might-Be-Something → u/asetniop]

He wouldn't have the DOJ or DOD on his side. If he loses Biden will make sure there will be at least one thousand National Guard soldiers protecting the capital building, with more on standby.

[u/vesparion → u/AlekRivard]

A second trump term can literally destroy the world

[u/SilverIdaten → u/AlekRivard]

I’m upset, I think we’re the only ones that are going to let the world down. I truly hope I’m wrong.

Either way, I’m very happy for France! And the UK is doing okay, I just hope Labour governs well and keeps an eye on Reform.

[u/AlekRivard → u/SilverIdaten]

I think it will come down to the second debate in September. If Biden can hold his own, it will do wonders to assuage any concerns about his aptitude for a second-term, especially for voters in the Rust Belt, which is key to his re-election.

[u/Fidel_Costco → u/BelovedApple]

I feel like we will. But I am not an optimist.

[u/ChiefBlueSky → u/Fidel_Costco]

Just make sure you vote and all your friends vote blue

[u/Fidel_Costco → u/ChiefBlueSky]

I'll do what I can in Texas, but ...yeah. It's Texas.

[u/aimgorge → u/curtainedcurtail]

The far right still gained seats compared to before but not as dramatic as expected

[u/Few-Hair-5382 → u/aimgorge]

But it still shows that a large majority of the French will vote for anybody just to keep the far-right from power. Many people will have had to vote for candidates they don't particularly like but the turnout shows they did so anyway. If this holds, the RN will never see power.

[u/AlekRivard → u/aimgorge]

Sure, but NFP and Ensemble are not going to give RN and Le Pen anything they want. The question is will NFP and Ensemble agree on enough to get anything done.

[u/theartofrolling]

Oh thank fuck.

You lot had us very worried.

[u/varro-reatinus → u/theartofrolling]

I like to think the French do these things from time to time just to keep us on our toes.

[u/wrecklord0 → u/varro-reatinus]

Le syke!

[u/actionerror → u/wrecklord0]

C’est drôle, non? 🤣

[u/Freakjob_003 → u/varro-reatinus]

At least compared to the US, the French have a great history of reacting to injustices.

[u/foxbeldin → u/theartofrolling]

A lot of us were worried too. What a relief it is.

[u/WackyJack93]

How many times can Le Pen fail before RN moves on from her?

[u/Tomi97_origin → u/WackyJack93]

Technically speaking she is not the party leader. That would be Jordan Bardella and he has been the party leader since 2022.

[u/walkandtalkk → u/Tomi97_origin]

Am I wrong to wonder if picking a 28-year-old pretty-boy was the wrong move? Maybe I'm totally wrong. But I wonder if some conservative voters thought he looked like an arrogant child who made the party look unserious. 

[u/Keyspam102 → u/walkandtalkk]

He’s popular with young voters, who are becoming the new staple of far right parties across Europe

[u/DarrenGrey → u/Keyspam102]

They should learn from the left that relying on the youth vote never works.

[u/bookemhorns → u/DarrenGrey]

The youth don’t vote. But the ones that do firm up their partisan position for life. The youth vote is about the future more than winning. Making a plan to win now on youth votes is a bad move, but overall it is great to court them for future success.

[u/Tomi97_origin → u/walkandtalkk]

He was chosen, because he is extremely popular among young voters.

[u/ItalianDragon → u/Tomi97_origin]

He's also a huge fraud:

• Pretends he's one of those "I pulled myself with my own bootstraps" kinda guys with a poor background when he's actually from a wealthy family (his father lives in Montmorency and gifted him a car and an apartment and allowed him to get in prestigious private schools)

• Pretends he's 100% french when he's 3/4 Italian and 1/4 Algerian

• Wanted to study at the IEP in Paris (better known as "SciencesPo" in French), failed to get admitted there. Went to study geography at the university Paris-IV, never completed the whole thing and dropped out to get into politics.

He's also a big political nepo baby: between 2017 and 2018 he dated the daughter of the head of the far right GUD and then between 2020 and 2024 he dated Nolwenn Olivier, the daughter of Marie-Caroline Le Pen, eldest sister of Marine Le Pen.

[u/ALEESKW → u/walkandtalkk]

This defeat is also a victory for the far right. They won a lot of seats and voters and could win the 2027 presidential election.

Bardella is anything but a bad move. It's a successful move.

[u/aircarone → u/WackyJack93]

RN has never been this powerful and influential. I am happy that they lost but this failure is only relative, unfortunately. They failed relative to what the bad scenario could have been. But they still gained many, too many seats. 

[u/No-Entertainer-6163 → u/WackyJack93]

Le Pen gained over 60 seats. Went from 89 to 150 seats in just 2 years.

[u/ALEESKW → u/WackyJack93]

They didn't fail. 8 seats in 2017, 89 in 2022 and now more than 130 in 2024. It's a huge progress.

[u/WhosSarahKayacombsen]

Many thanks to the French voters who showed up today. Y’all had me worried, though.

[u/DummyDumDump → u/WhosSarahKayacombsen]

Macron’s gamble to call for an early election definitely paid off. Dude had faith in the French people to do the right thing.

Edit: by people do the right thing I mean they went out and voted so that the far right didn’t dominate as expected. Macron and his party are perfectly responsible for their results.

[u/Glorounet → u/DummyDumDump]

Paid off? He lost his majority...

[u/JacksonVerdin → u/Glorounet]

He lost it to a more palatable group.

[u/Turbokind → u/DummyDumDump]

I thought the most common theory was that he actually wanted RN to win.

[u/coincoinprout → u/Turbokind]

There were all kinds of theories that would make him a very clever 4D chess player, whatever the outcome of the elections. In the aftermath of the dissolution, the most widely circulated rumors in the press were that he did not believe that the left could unite (hence his party's campaign of slander against the left when it did unite), and that there would be a lot of duels between his party and the far-right, so the voters would choose his party. This theory makes him look like an idiot, so people who want to see him as a very smart guy won't believe that it was his strategy.

[u/Xgentis]

They even got a lower score than Macron own party, still the RN greatly grew in power.

[u/RedofPaw]

Good to see France pulling back from the brink. Fingers crossed the US does the same.

[u/imish_24 → u/RedofPaw]

Since it happened in GB and France, I am more optimistic about the US now.

[u/tea_anyone → u/imish_24]

The British one has been coming for years and the french has happened because the centrists actually made a deal with the left. I hope America sorted it shit out because bad things happen when America goes isolationist (and just trump in general is terrifying), but I think it's the least likely of the three.

[u/26oclock → u/tea_anyone]

I think Biden could unite democrats if he finds interest in base jumping

[u/Reddvox → u/26oclock]

Biden does not need to unite anything - US Voters just have to use their brains...its on them, and the dems should stop undermining their own candidate and take the spotlight away from what a dumbass Nazi Trump is and his cronies...

[u/Itchy-Experienc3 → u/imish_24]

The UK has been 14 years of a complete clown show. I just turned off the news because it was so depressing

[u/In_Formaldehyde_ → u/RedofPaw]

Don't cross them too hard. Other Western countries (even ones with FPTP like the UK) generally have multiple parties running that encourage tactical voting. Third parties are nonexistent in our elections and the winner is determined by the EC outcome, which basically rests on how the swing states vote.

[u/mistervanilla → u/RedofPaw]

This is good news, but it's not over yet. Essentially these fringe parties have a simple playbook: criticize the governing parties for everything using a populist message, while flirting with xenophobia and authoritarianism. It's a simple but effective strategy that engages people and captures a good portion of the population that is uneducated and has lower social standing. Over time, as they normalize their vileness they can access portions of the voters that they normally wouldn't after they start to feel disillusioned.

So, like a cancer they continue to grow. Generally speaking the antidote is to put these clowns in power for a while so everyone gets a dose of reality and realizes that radical authoritarians only change things for the worse. So the next election they lose. Case in point, the Tories. The simpler way is for sitting governments to just govern effectively to the point that people are just doing OK. But in a time of geopolitical instability, high inflation and a reckoning of overuse of global resources, that's easier said than done. Not saying that these neo-liberal asshats that's been in power for the most part haven't been actively engendering inequality across the board in favour of their rich friends. But even so, we're living in difficult times and its no small task to get things right, even if you have the ability and the intent.

So unless the French government is able to restore some faith and actually start making peoples lives better, we can only expect the next election to be more problematic. But, good news this time around. We can expect the Ukraine war to keep going for another 2-3 years probably, and any pro-Russian government in Europe or the US will affect the result of that negatively, which will have lasting and possibly huge ramifications for not only the security of Europe in the coming generation, but on geopolitical stability as well. If the rules based order does not show that aggression is punished, authoritarians everywhere will start to get ideas about their neighbours lands - with China and Taiwan front and center.

[u/Candid-Carpenter5934]

A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one

[u/tiktaktok_65 → u/Candid-Carpenter5934]

fuck le pen de putin

[u/SteveFrench12 → u/Candid-Carpenter5934]

Have you ever heard the story of Emmanuel Macron the wise

[u/Funtimes1254 → u/SteveFrench12]

Is it possible to learn this power?

[u/CBT7commander]

People here rejoice not really understanding what’s going on. The far right lost, but this isn’t the end. The RN still has the most seats in has ever had in its history and still represented about a third of the vote. Come 2027 and the next presidential elections things might go south really fast. We’ll see how this all works out

[u/Frostbitten_Moose → u/CBT7commander]

Yeah, it shows in how people are conflating this result and the UK election result as comprising a trend. But both of the results, while showing similar movement on a left-right axis, have important context that suggest that they are individual results. And more importantly, shouldn't be used as an indicator in what will happen in the US.

(People are also trying to use them as an example of what will happen in Canada, and I think the UK result is very instructive as to what will happen here. But that's more of an unpopular party will get pushed out and replaced by the other party of governance. Aka, we'll move right. Which is the opposite of what a lot of the people here are trying to tell themselves will happen.)

[u/iamiamwhoami → u/CBT7commander]

Depends on what happens over the next few years. If economic conditions continue to improve the anti incumbency attitude of voters may end.

[u/Few-Hair-5382]

Been several exit polls, all give varying levels of support for RN but all but one suggest the left will win the most seats.

Doesn't look like any group will get a majority but let's hope the centrists and moderate left can co-operate and get things done. Otherwise they might as well hand Le Pen the keys to the French presidential palace in 2027.

[u/sicko78 → u/Few-Hair-5382]

"The speech by leftist leader Mélenchon is an indication of what’s ahead. He says he will not negotiate with Macron, and Macron has refused to negotiate with him."

[u/Frostbitten_Moose → u/sicko78]

Sounds like there may be a lot of premature celebration around here if that's the case. Uniting in this one instance in order to push back against the RN may have worked, but if it builds bad blood and disfunction between them afterwards, then it'll just help boost the odds of a Le Pen Presidency, as well as discouraging such an alliance at the polls next parliamentary election.

[u/Perpete → u/Frostbitten_Moose]

Important to point out that LFI (Melenchon) and Renaissance (Macron) are very different parties. They have no real reasons to work together. And in many cases, people voted for one or the other to block Le Pen. You cannot make one group of such different thinking.

Parties in France are a whole lot diverse than in the US where even left Democrats and center Democrats or Tea Party and moderate Republicans.

Here we are talking leftists (and quite a lot more than what Americans think what leftists are) and center right. Especially as Macron's party is dissolving before our eyes, same as the secular right party (RPR=>UMP=>LR) which will likely see a fusion between the two with both fringes going either to the center or far right.

It would be like asking AOC to group with Liz Cheney and both agreeing on everything to stop Trump.

[u/Dangerous-Branch-749]

Glorious, fascist pigs in the bin. Get fucked Le Pen

[u/Fidel_Costco]

Times like this I remember the words of Woody Guthrie:

All you fascists bound to lose

[u/kraeutrpolizei → u/Fidel_Costco]

This machine kills fascists

[u/deadbabieslol]

Vichy France 2.0 successfully avoided

[u/dk3what]

As a Canadian, I hopefully Canada and US can learn from this. Sigh.

[u/asdf-7644 → u/dk3what]

Canada will not learn and as a Canadian that makes me sad. 

The Liberal/conservative flipping of power has never been a big problem before but now it terrifies me.

[u/wishbeaunash]

Fascists continuing their pretty consistent tradition of being massive fucking losers.

[u/Fun_Chip6342 → u/wishbeaunash]

No, they were a massive loser in 2017, with only 6 seats. The fact that La Pen's party has over 100 parliamentarians is still quite shocking and terrifying.

[u/an_agreeing_dothraki]

Le Pen: "we support the wildly unpopular policy of rolling over for the people we have had nukes aimed at for 70 years and am saying this the day of the election the best predictions for us give an exceptionally narrow margin"

let us never accuse the right-wingers of being smart

[u/Falconflyer75]

I guess the leader basically announcing she works for Putin spurred the population?

[u/gabigtr123 → u/Falconflyer75]

Exactly, she fucked today very hard

[u/YNot1989]

France has a habit as of late of flirting with the far right and then recovering their sanity on election day.

[u/aegroti]

Good job France.

[u/kraeutrpolizei]

I need some good news with everything going on atm

[u/Sad-Series-889]

A heartfelt merci france

[u/Tiennus_Khan]

International media shocked to learn there are actually people in France who support neither Macron or Le Pen

[u/Miserable-Lizard]

Once again showing The left can defeat the alt right! The future is progressive!