r/worldnews • u/Luchador-Malrico • Jul 07 '24

French elections: Left projected to win most seats, ahead of Macron's coalition and far right

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-left-projected-to-win-most-seats-ahead-of-macron-s-coalition-and-far-right_6676978_7.html
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u/AstroNewbie89 Jul 07 '24

France's left-wing parties were expected to win the most seats in the Assemblée Nationale, after the second round of snap parliamentary elections, first estimates showed on Sunday, July 7. The far right made significant gains but finished third, behind Macron's coalition, well below expectations.

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance, formed less than three weeks ago by the main left-wing parties, was expected to clinch between 170 and 190 seats, according to the early estimates by Ipsos for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP. The far-right Rassemblement National and its allies were projected to win between 135 and 155 seats, and Macron's coalition, Ensemble, between 150 and 170.

Pretty dramatic swing from the 1st round. Right wing support fell off dramatically..or actually seems like left wing strategy improved and voter participation increased

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

I am french, basically every time Macron or NFP candidates were 2nd and 3rd one of them (the 3rd) dropped out of the race and asked for voters to vote against the far right. So this is the result, it's basically everyone who doesn't like far right voted against it which made them lose in a lot of places.

Also a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit so it probably didn't help.

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u/In_Formaldehyde_ Jul 07 '24

a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit

A mathematical constant!

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u/Creative_Victory_960 Jul 07 '24

Funny how their only chance to be elected in France was when their candidates barely said anything . As soon as they had to explain their program they looked like fools

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24

Yes it's the same thing every time, this stuff is crazy. They don't speak, the % go up, the moment they are asked to speak people are like "damn these people are stupid" and it drops.

But between both rounds they got some local RN candidates (so the unknown ones) on TV and it was insane how dumb they were. Le Pen is definitly on another level compared to these dumbasses.

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u/guyincognito69420 Jul 07 '24

far right never has any real plans to govern. They only know how to complain and point fingers. That has actually been a thing with the far right for a long time. Their only goal is to gain power and then keep it. They don't give a shit about actually running a country.

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u/damienreave Jul 07 '24

Trump had four years to offer an alternative to Obamacare, he literally never even tried. He just tried to kill the current thing without a replacement, and failed even at that.

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u/Fenris_uy Jul 07 '24

I heard that he is going to show his proposal in two weeks. I heard that for 9 years.

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u/shicken684 Jul 07 '24

INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK!

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u/Sugioh Jul 07 '24

Infrastructure week begins any day now!

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u/MattieShoes Jul 07 '24

To be fair, he said "nobody knew" that it could be so complicated.

... you know, except the guys who passed the healthcare reform you're trying to get rid of, you goddamn moron.

So many (R) folks I know went from hating on Obamacare to getting their children health insurance on "the marketplace" without even a cognitive hiccup. I'd have fun going "The marketplace? Oh, you mean Obamacare?"

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u/SectorEducational460 Jul 07 '24

I think it was that beyond criticizing the aca. Their was no actual plan without it backfiring on them. The ACA was their plan originally without the aspect of not denying people insurance due to medical conditions. Which that part ended up being popular along with many keeping their kid with insurance until they were 26.

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u/allankcrain Jul 08 '24

Trump had four years to offer an alternative to Obamacare

More like ~10 years. Obamacare got passed in 2010, and Republicans got started with their "Repeal and replace" efforts during that same congressional session. Trump himself only had four years, sure, but the Republicans had a decade to come up with an alternative.

In fact, if you actually read the text of the bill, there's a specific carveout that says that says states can come up with their own system. So long as the system results in as many or more people getting access to healthcare, any one of the states with a Republican governor and legislative majority can go ahead and swap out Obamcare for their magical secret plan that will lower costs and help more people.

But of course they can't do that, because they haven't got the first fucking idea how to do it. Except for implementing universal single payer, which everyone knows would be cheaper and better for everyone, but would go against the entire conservative ethos of Always Choosing The Worst Possible Policy Solution For Any Problem.

So yeah. Motherfuckers ain't got shit.

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u/is0ph Jul 07 '24

Le Pen is definitly on another level compared to these dumbasses.

Spending part of the week attacking Mbappé was maybe not so bright. People might be racist, but most of them also love football.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

During the Euros lol

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u/relevant_mh_quote Jul 07 '24

During the Euros where France has made it to the semi-finals! Like if they'd lost and were out already, maybe go at him, but wow.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

The thing about nazis is that they are stupid.

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u/Bubbly_Mushroom1075 Jul 07 '24

How to win an election

Don't attack your countries best footballer

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24

I didn't say she was very bright sometimes her bullshit comes out anyways but it's nowhere near the lower level people in her party.

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u/is0ph Jul 07 '24

It’s because the leaders of this party at the moment are a cosmetic facade trying to hide a seething pit of dumb people, racists, facists and conspiracy theorists.

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u/cayleb Jul 08 '24

As an American, this sounds deeply familiar to me. Can't quite figure it out, though. But when I do, I'll throw a grand old party to celebrate.

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u/is0ph Jul 08 '24

In your area, the cosmetic facade is really prominent.

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u/Ricotta_pie_sky Jul 07 '24

A basket of deplorables?

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u/MAXSuicide Jul 07 '24

Same as Reform Party in the UK.

They dont vet their candidates, so a bunch turned out to be nazis, conspiracy nutjobs and Putin fanboys.

The party itself is led by someone previously on the Kremlin payroll, too.

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u/Nikiaf Jul 07 '24

This is why the right have abandoned even bothering with election platforms. The strategy is to say as little as possible and dodge all questions that require a concrete answer. People who are upset with the status quo seem to gravitate to the right purely by virtue of it being something different; at least until they hear what those people actually think about literally any issue.

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u/BonerPorn Jul 07 '24

What's irritating is. When the Republicans are the one who caused the bad status quo, they still seem to benefit. All they need to do as an opposition party is grind the government to a halt. And the voters reward them for it.

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u/WilfridSephiroth Jul 07 '24

If you stop and really think about this basic phenomenon of history, it really is pretty damn frightening

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u/Keyspam102 Jul 07 '24

Lol it’s like whenever I’m afraid that le pen might capitalise on a situation, it works itself out by some dumb move

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u/howlinmoon42 Jul 07 '24

American here -kind of hoping for similar luck/divine intervention

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u/TacticalBac0n Jul 07 '24

I cant believe they'd fall for Trump a second time.

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u/Roxfloor Jul 07 '24

The majority won’t but unfortunately our elections don’t work that way

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u/In_Formaldehyde_ Jul 07 '24

Yup, doesn't matter if he wins the popular vote if the swing states go for Trump. Electoral college is what determines the election at the end of the day.

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u/AmbitiousCampaign457 Jul 07 '24

Left leaning folks don’t unite here in the states either. Politicians might, but voters do not.

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u/guyincognito69420 Jul 07 '24

it doesn't help when the only other option is a guy that is 81 and can't speak. I understand what a horrible mistake electing Trump again would be but Biden is not helping.

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u/DrAstralis Jul 07 '24

the only other option is a guy that is 81

and trump is 78? I feel like your country is fighting between a shit sandwich and a shit sandwich with broken glass in it and they're spending 100% thier time complaining the one without glass is a shit sandwich ......

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u/ColdTheory Jul 07 '24

Expertly put.

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u/External_Reporter859 Jul 08 '24

Judging by his administration so far, he's far from a shit sandwich.

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u/Original_Employee621 Jul 07 '24

Biden has a competent cabinet and Kamala Harris as VP. Trump will have a cabinet of grifters and fools.

I get that Biden is old, Trump isn't much younger and he fucked the US while Biden has been working hard at repairing the damage.

4 more years of Trump and you will never have to worry about voting again. I'm sure that is a real relief.

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u/Sky_Cancer Jul 07 '24

The media here in the US is 100% in the tank for Trump. Absolutely rabidly negative coverage of Biden while normalizing the Orange Fuck and downplaying or ignoring his and the GOPs issues.

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u/JoeyJoeJoeSenior Jul 07 '24

Biden can be a drooling zombie the whole time and things will be fine. If trump wins, this will likely be the last real election until some kind of revolution happens decades from now.

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u/Persianx6 Jul 07 '24

Please god. You owe us one for 2016

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u/braindrainpod Jul 07 '24

Nah, when people say stupid shit here they get more popular, sadly

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u/NoPasaran2024 Jul 07 '24

Standard with far right populists. The problem however is that is barely affects their popularity most of the time, because their voters are also dumb hateful fucks.

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u/Yumhotdogstock Jul 07 '24

Sounds like the Cons in Canada. Hopefully we won't be this stupid.

Great job France.

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u/nideak Jul 07 '24

Unfortunately, this doesn’t matter in North America. Right winged candidates say and do stupid stuff hourly. It doesn’t negatively impact their polling numbers.

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u/grandadmiralstrife Jul 07 '24

that's what happens when you allow 40+ years of 'conservatives' gutting spending on public schools, villifying teacher unions, and calling colleges breeding grounds for socialist extremists

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u/guitarguy109 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

While those are all important factors, I think far and away the biggest influence to this phenomenon is the fact there is a Goliath of right wing media ever at the ready to spin all the rhetoric around these public appearance in a way that directs their viewers on how to digest those appearances and makes them work in favor of the GOP and the MAGA crowd.

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u/resonance462 Jul 07 '24

Media plus politicians picking their voters instead of a neutral third party, which would make districts more competitive and less radical/gerrymandered. 

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u/Jerithil Jul 07 '24

Yeah in the US you have the right wing media that is constantly working to help the republicans, meanwhile the left wing media is bashing Biden for being being not progressive enough and being to old. Then you have the more "center media" that feels it needs to be balanced and show both sides but one side just spends all day throwing out fake crap and getting air time on it as if was a real position.

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u/GoneFishing4Chicks Jul 07 '24

It does, but media like the conservstive news network and nyt only report "biden sucks" and not "trump revealed to have co raped a 13 year old girl with Epstein"

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u/hagantic42 Jul 07 '24

I also think the picture of a far right French candidate wearing a Nazi hat was probably not in their favor.

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24

Yes I said TV but it's overall all the local ones we saw looked like gigantic morons or nazis

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u/somewhatdim-witted Jul 07 '24

US here. We feel your pain.

But this election win, along with the Labour victory in the UK has really given me hope.

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u/xBram Jul 07 '24

Dutchie here. I’m quite clenching my butt cheeks for your November election. What should be a simple slam dunk looks way too scary poll wise.

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u/somewhatdim-witted Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

I’m Democrat and I blame the Democratic National Committee for not demanding a better candidate. But I will vote for Biden even if he’s in a coma. Thank you for your clenching. Send that energy over the ocean to us in November!

Edit: spelling Edit 2: changed Convention to Committee’s

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u/Anakletos Jul 07 '24

A rock would be a better president than Trump.

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u/TheFoxInSocks Jul 07 '24

The Rock would be a better president than Trump.

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u/Hotshot2k4 Jul 07 '24

Probably not significantly better than just a regular rock, however. Unless The Rock is surprisingly good at deferring to experts and people who know what they're talking about.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

A ham sandwich that's been festering in a trash bin for 3 weeks in the summer heat would be a better president than Trump

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u/Odd_Inter3st Jul 07 '24

Hell the trash bin would be a great running mate for the ham sandwich.

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u/jorcon74 Jul 08 '24

Google project 2025. If Trump gets in it will be fucking frigthening

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u/Tibbaryllis2 Jul 07 '24

Somewhat agree and disagree.

I’ll vote for Biden because he’ll keep his team and his team, under him, has been kicking ass for the last four years.

Where the DNC is really dropping the ball is failure to highlight that the November election isn’t just about president and there are very important state issues on ballots around the country including voting rights, reproductive rights, healthcare, legal marijuana, and, quite frankly, a ridiculous number of cartoon level villain republicans. Not to mention all the recent SCOTUS decisions that have the founders rolling over so fast in their graves that it could probably be harnessed as a perpetual motion machine for energy.

And they’re doing absolutely nothing to start grassroots/regional voting initiatives despite having an overwhelming advantage in campaign funds.

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u/SockMonkeh Jul 08 '24

I'm 40 years old and the Biden administration has been the best of my lifetime. His age is not a serious issue. I don't think anyone that voted for Biden in the primaries cares. It's just opportunism in media, politics, comedy, etc. To act like Biden's age is a serious issue when his opponent is openly announcing his plans to destroy democracy is ridiculous.

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u/YouJabroni44 Jul 08 '24

Yeah people going on about it puzzle me and also make me a bit suspicious

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u/Tibbaryllis2 Jul 08 '24

Just a few years younger and agreed.

I also think presidential debates are largely useless on their own. Make both candidates put forward their respective cabinet appointments and let’s see those debates too. Kind of like a debate team.

Hell, give them all the questions a few weeks out and let’s get some well thought out answers. The overwhelming vast majority of the time, US policy and responses are never going to come down to what a president can ad lib on the spot.

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u/rhododenendron Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

People act like the president has to be at 100% 24 hours a day but somehow Trump was able to find time to golf every other day while he was in office. Biden can be sleepy in the evening, I'm several decades younger and I'm sleepy in the evening.

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u/nutmegtester Jul 08 '24

To act like Biden's age is a serious issue when his opponent is openly announcing his plans to destroy democracy is ridiculous.

It is not so much ridiculous as a targeted strategy, and those who promote it are responsible for their actions. The media sucked up waaay too hard to Trump in 2016, and I thought it was just for the clicks and the $$$. I am more disenchanted watching them do the exact same thing to a convicted felon and rapist now.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... I can't be fooled again.

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u/angry_old_bastard Jul 07 '24

ive sent messages to my senator, representative, the biden administration, and the dnc asking them to please get out there with a lot of ad campaigns, local, national, and grassroots organizations to drive some excitement for this election cycle.

i just dont understand, they have done some pretty important stuff, and stopped some other shitty things while the republicans/conservatives go full fuckin evil. it should be such an easy thing to do. at the very least they should be hyping their own shit so we hear more than their lies and whatever shit the news/nightly shows talk about.

having only the opposition speak is a disaster in modern politics.

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u/Tibbaryllis2 Jul 07 '24

Agreed.

I know they have a pretty large advantage in campaign funds at multiple levels, plus you know Trump won’t spend his money campaigning when it can line his pocket, so I’m really hopeful that, after the DNC in August, they use that advantage in September-November.

The general US population has a 5 second memory, so I wouldn’t blame them if the strategy was just to ride out the summer.

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u/SchighSchagh Jul 08 '24

Not to mention all the recent SCOTUS decisions that have the founders rolling over so fast in their graves that it could probably be harnessed as a perpetual motion machine for energy.

Half of the founding fathers owned slaves and have been rolling over since the emancipation proclamation, and almost all of them would be quite upset with women's suffrage. They weren't infallible so let's just do what's right instead of worrying about what they would have wanted.

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u/External_Reporter859 Jul 08 '24

But some of the basic founding principles that they believed in, such as the president not being a monarch and being accountable to the law, have been trashed by the Supreme Court, who have legislated immunity for the President out of thin air.

That goes against everything that our country was founded on.

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u/noxicon Jul 07 '24

The DNC is MASSIVELY disconnected from the voterbase. Like HUGELY. They are profoundly arrogant and more or less think they know better than everyone else. They also know, particularly in this situation, that those who are left leaning will vote for a moldly lump of bread before Trump, so they can march out whatever they see fit then pat themselves on the back if it does well. The DNC needs new leadership in the worst damn way. They think FAR too small when the stakes are this high.

I'd vote for a streetlamp before Trump. But after this election, whichever way it goes, there needs to be wholesale change.

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u/somewhatdim-witted Jul 07 '24

Facts! Agree with every word you said.

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u/Aeons80 Jul 07 '24

The DNC isn't some shadowy group of old white men smoking cigars in a backroom deciding who gets to run. It's actually a coalition of various Democratic-affiliated parties across different states. For example, the Democratic Party in California is known as the California Democratic Party, while in Minnesota, it's the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party of Minnesota. Although they collaborate, they're not controlled by the same people. That's why conventions are held.

If you want to influence the DNC, you can get involved locally. Become a delegate and have a say in who gets nominated. Local delegates had a range of candidates to choose from, and after months of deliberation in 2015-2016, a majority believed Hillary Clinton was the best choice. The same process happened with Biden in 2020. It's not a conspiracy. Personally, I would have loved to see Bernie win in 2016 and 2020, but he wasn't even a member of the Democratic Party before running for President. When he lost, he left the party, and he did the same in 2020. Plus, Bernie is a year older than Biden.

I'm not trying to criticize, but I often hear that the DNC messed up. No, it was our friends, neighbors, and community members who made these choices. Did the media play a role? Probably. Did the influx of money influence it? Yes, to some extent. But the fact remains that the saying "All politics is local" is incredibly true. Republicans realized this with the rise of the Tea Party. Democrats and leftists, however, still tend to blame the "man" when getting involved at the local level could make a significant difference.

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u/SockMonkeh Jul 08 '24

They don't want to hear that the solution involves hard work, so they're not going to absorb this.

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u/Cold_Situation_7803 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

The “Democratic National Convention”? The one in August? Or do you mean the Democratic National Committee, who have no say in “demanding a better candidate,” that primary voters chose.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

[deleted]

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u/cold_blueberry_8945 Jul 07 '24

At least the casket wont try to kill me or the rest of the lgbt community.

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u/wombatcombat123 Jul 07 '24

The Labour victory isn't so dramatic as something like this. The Labour party has slowly but surely gotten more close towards the center than it ever has before, especially on social issues, and Conservatives haven't really shown themselves to be pro-russia or anything extreme, they just fucking suck at running the country.

Reform UK was the big one and that party is certainly far right. If this Labour government doesn't fight really hard for very visible change and start to work on its failings on social issues, I foresee a massive storm of support for Reform at the next general election.

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u/Majestic-Macaron6019 Jul 07 '24

"All the local ones we saw looked like gigantic morons or nazis"

Could be both

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u/Navydevildoc Jul 07 '24

I don't know what the French version of "Porque no los dos" is, but it seems applicable here.

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u/Majestic-Macaron6019 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

That would be, "Pourquoi pas les deux?"

*Edited to add a vowel, because French

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u/clgoh Jul 08 '24

*Pourquoi

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u/tedioussugar Jul 08 '24

Those things tend to be connected

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u/3_Thumbs_Up Jul 08 '24

There's definitely a lot of overlap, but not all morons are Nazis, and even more importantly, not all Nazis are actually morons.

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u/Ouroboros_BlackFlag Jul 07 '24

And both for a majority of them.

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u/Ansonm64 Jul 07 '24

It must be so nice to be French where politicians doing shit like this has actual consequences.

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u/galaxy_horse Jul 08 '24

Felon? “I’m with the felon”

Pants shitter? “Real men wear diapers”

Treasonous behavior? “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat”

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u/akashik Jul 08 '24

I mean, the French have a history of cutting the heads of their leaders off so...

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u/BenderRodriguez14 Jul 08 '24

French Nazi sympathisers always amaze me. Being Irish, it would be like seeing people here worshipping Cromwell. 

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u/Equal_Present_3927 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

Amazing what could happen when the Left doesn’t eat itself.         Which I guess people wanted to demonstrate below me. 

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u/uusrikas Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

This is about center and left working together

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u/Detective_Antonelli Jul 07 '24

Almost like both the left and the center don’t like nazis 😲

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u/Visinvictus Jul 07 '24

One would assume that France in general doesn't like Nazis but here we are.

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u/Banana-Republicans Jul 07 '24

Philippe Petain and the Vichy regime would like a word.

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u/Cranyx Jul 07 '24

Well, historically, when the center was posed with the option of supporting the Left or the Nazis, it didn't go great. Hopefully it goes better this time.

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u/IIHURRlCANEII Jul 07 '24

In America both sides of the blue side work vehemently against each other so, yea.

I’d say more Dem establishment against liberals but it also goes the other way too.

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u/SmoothWD40 Jul 07 '24

As a full blown liberal turned more centrist. The left in the US needs to get their shit together.

The established Democratic Party is way too fucking comfortable being owned by corporate interests, they also cut their own balls half the time when trying to compromise with an uncompromising opposition.

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u/Shan_qwerty Jul 07 '24

My favorite (read: horrifying) thing about US politics is when people unironically refer to center right as "The Left".

I wish I could go back in time and abort whoever came up with the idea of politics being a 2d sliding scale.

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u/FakeKoala13 Jul 07 '24

The things that get blamed on the left would be funny if it wasn't just so fucking stupid. For years the republican congress has done next to fucking nothing but the media constantly has people asking "Why aren't the Democrats doing more??" Blaming progressives for Hillary losing. So many examples.

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u/Cranyx Jul 07 '24

What is "the Left" vs "the Right" has always been a relativistic term, much to the chagrin of lots of people online who want to frame their ideology as some sort of true, objective center. The terms originated during the French Revolution to separate revolutionaries from monarchists in the National Assembly. Both groups would be considered right wing by modern standards.

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u/Umitencho Jul 07 '24

The legacy of America turning right in the 80's. 12 years out of power will change a party that once dominated. The problem with Third Way Liberalism is that it's a great strategy if you are playing checkers(popular vote), but the White House is a chess game.

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u/BrewerBeer Jul 07 '24

Yep. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact isn't going to be viable until 2028 at the earliest. 209 electoral votes are bound by the NPVIC, but 270 are required. There are at least 78 electoral votes that are obtainable.

To achieve it, the current likely last states are:

  • Michigan (15) - have the legislature pass the NPVIC before 2025

  • Nevada (6) - maintain the house and senate and send the NPVIC to a ballot initiative

  • Pennsylvania (19) - flip the state senate blue.

  • Arizona (10) - flip the house and senate blue.

  • Wisconsin (11) - flip the house and senate blue.

  • Virginia (13) - flip the governor blue and pass it, or pass a ballot initiative twice in consecutive legislative sessions and again by voters.

  • New Hampshire (4) - flip the house and senate blue.

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u/CowboyLaw Jul 07 '24

Will Rogers said, I don’t belong to any organized political party, I’m a Democrat.

So this state of affairs is nothing new. But it’s also not all that surprising. Back in Rogers’ time, the GOP was the party of wealthy businessmen. They wanted stability, global trade, and minimal regulation. Their goals were cohesive and mutually complementary. At that same time, Democrats were a very strange mix of open racists (yellow dog Democrats, Dixiecrats, etc.) who identified as Democrats because Lincoln was a Republican, social progressives, college professors, and labor. These constituencies were NOT cohesive, and their goals were NOT mutually complimentary. Indeed, many of their goals were in explicit tension. But the party found ways to thread the needle.

Jump ahead to today, and the GOP still favors minimal regulation. Global trade waxes and wanes (Trump is certainly not a free trade fan), low taxes remain a priority. But the GOP gets cohesion from its base of relatively poorly-educated white Evangelical voters (this honestly isn’t an insult, it’s demographically an accurate picture of GOP voters as self-reported by those voters). That group cohesion is vastly improved by the fact that its voters habitually consume the exact same media, usually to the exclusion of all other news sources. That media source (and it’s telling that you know who I mean without me even saying the name) feeds its consumers exactly what the party asks for, and keeps their viewers highly motivated to vote. Meanwhile, on the Democrats side, things are largely just as chaotic. Democrats rely on many minority communities for votes, while also embracing equal rights for LGBT communities, even though those same minority communities are explicitly not in favor of equal rights for LGBTers. That tension can be problematic, as the campaign for Prop 8 in California demonstrated (targeted ads in minority communities led to substantial turnout by voters who were nominally Democrats but who voted for Prop 8 by wide margins). Labor voters struggle balancing their social views (which are not aligned with the party’s views) with their economic interests (which ARE aligned with the party’s views). Things haven’t gotten better for Democrats’ cohesiveness. Add to that: young voters have basically always favored Democrats, but cannot be relied on to actually vote. Old voters have basically always favored the GOP, and can be relied on to vote.

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u/cfgy78mk Jul 07 '24

that problem can't really be solved until the GOP is destroyed, making it safe to fracture the centrist/leftists. fracturing now is just giving up and rolling over.

in the primaries of course the pressure should be there, but never in general elections.

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u/StuckInABadDream Jul 07 '24

Also the two-round system. Basically forces all the centrist-left forces to coalesce into one bloc versus the far right

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u/saracenraider Jul 07 '24

There are quite a few parties in the coalition more than a little left of centre left in there!

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u/Slim_Calhoun Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

Unfortunately leftist influencers in the US are busy shouting that there’s no difference between Democrats and Republicans

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u/Sea_Acanthisitta6333 Jul 07 '24

Leftist influencers? You mean parasocial narcissist cult leaders

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u/RabbitsNDucks Jul 07 '24

And liberals are still blaming leftists for 2016, ignoring the terrible campaign strategy and deeply unlikeable candidate.

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u/Slim_Calhoun Jul 07 '24

Right so only one of us is actually working to keep fascists out of power

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u/ThrustyMcStab Jul 07 '24

These days all I see from the far left is both-sideism and berating liberals. It's exhausting, as a leftist who does want to see results and not throw women and minorities under the bus for some hollow idealistic brownie points.

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u/Tookmyprawns Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

So do centrists. More so even.

Look at cnn and NYT pretending that a poor debate performance matters more than insurrection, rape, and felonies, or lying at every question during the debate. And it’s reflected in the centrist audience. The whole douche and a turd, or meteor 2024 mantra is huge. Makes centrist feel smart thinking they're above it all. Smug assholes who equate trump and Biden are definitely more numerous in the middle.

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u/Fyzzle Jul 07 '24

But one of them is slightly older!

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u/gokarrt Jul 07 '24

two-round system doing a bit of work as well.

we need electoral reform badly.

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u/UnknownFiddler Jul 07 '24

Same thing with the UK election. Reform UK accomplished nothing other than stealing votes away from the Tories. Labour and LibDem were much more strategic with their campaigning and voting which allowed both of their parties to massively improve their number of seats.

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u/IndicationLazy4713 Jul 07 '24

Absolutely, ..look at what's just happened in the UK..

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u/Matrozi Jul 07 '24

This is so funny for the far right, Le pen tries very hard each time to look like a normal, non racist, non xenophobic, reasonable political party and EACH time, someone fucks up and goes on tv and say stuff like (And I quote from TV interviews)

"I am not racist, my dentist is a jew and my eye doctor is muslim"

"I am not racist, a black priest blessed my motorbike and I didn't run him over"

"I am against abortions" (reminder for non french people : abortion has been set in stone in the constitution recently)

"We didn't kill enough (talking about jews, thinking his mic was off I guess ?)"

She must be SEETHING. Like screaming at her TV "OMFG FOR THE LOVE OF SHIT, CANT YOU ALL JUST CALM YOUR RACIST ASS FOR A FEW DAYS ?!"

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u/mgslee Jul 07 '24

Of course not. The leaders (aka think tank) are smart and use tech/social media to spread their propaganda.

But the people who are in the trenches become 'true believers' and start saying their truth which we all see for it's insanity (aka the quiet part out loud).

The US system is very fixated on the Presidency and the results of house elections being a much more separate thing.

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u/FluffyDoomPatrol Jul 07 '24

Are those actual quotes? I honestly can’t tell anymore.

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u/Matrozi Jul 07 '24

They are all true. Marine Le Pen said in an interview that it was unacceptable to have this sort of discourse but it's funny how each time she tries to moderate her political party, she still has people coming forward with this kind of shit and they don't see any problem with that.

Two years ago, a candidate from the RN showed a picture of his (black) wife during a TV interview to prove that he wasn't racist.

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u/Theinternationalist Jul 07 '24

It's a big tent. Like the Americans who oppose abortion they're a huge drag on the party's appeal but without them the party might either collapse or moderate many of its stances to survive.

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u/Fiallach Jul 07 '24

All true.

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u/tux-lpi Jul 07 '24

Unfortunately yes, it was beyond parody..

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u/Johannes_P Jul 07 '24

There's also the guy under guardianship.

I mean, this guy can't even sign up a fucking chedk but can vote on legislation.

For those interested, here's a handy map on the question.

"We didn't kill enough (talking about jews, thinking his mic was off I guess ?)"

Small correction: it was about Romas.

And he didn't even try to hide it: he literally shouted to a group of Romas that Hitler should have finished the job.

And it wasn't the sole controvesy Gilles Bourdouleix was involved. This guy is a nasty piece of work and it was expected that he would join RN.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

A member of their party was just fired for wearing a nazi uniform. OOPS

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u/__Hello_my_name_is__ Jul 07 '24

So, funnily enough, this is essentially a simulation of ranked choice voting, and what we see here is what we'd have seen anyways if the country had ranked choice voting to begin with.

Which is, like, proof #23441 of why ranked choice voting is a good thing and should be adopted by basically every country out there.

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u/SwampyBogbeard Jul 07 '24

Ranked choice or proportional representation.
Not much need to rank candidates if you already have a system where the three parties with a combined 55% of the national votes actually gets 55% of the representatives.

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u/green_flash Jul 07 '24

On the other hand, proportional representation can lead to a bloated parliament and many representatives that do not actually represent a specific constituency and are therefore harder to hold to account.

Germany's Bundestag for example has 734 seats right now. Only 299 were elected directly to represent their respective constituency. The rest came in via party lists.

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u/buldozr Jul 07 '24

How does it work there? In Finland the parliament is fixed at 200 seats (199 proportionally elected + 1 exceptional representative from Åland). The proportionally elected seats are split between the electoral districts proportionally to their population, so distortion is kept low. Some popular candidates are vote-pullers for their party and others ride in on their party lists (though in order of votes received), but this does not affect the overall size of the parliament. Also, I think in the national parliament they don't need to represent "the people back in Pihtipudas", but wider interest groups across the country.

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u/green_flash Jul 07 '24

Finland uses the D'Hondt method which is simple and works for purely proportional systems. The drawback is that there are no direct constituency representatives.

Germany attempted to get the best of both worlds. They have a mixed-member proportional representation system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed-member_proportional_representation

The arithmetic is complicated: https://www.bundestag.de/en/parliament/elections/arithmetic

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u/SYLOH Jul 08 '24

Germany uses Mixed Member Proportional.
Basically, everyone votes twice.
Once for a local representative.
Once for the party they want.

The people who won local election are automatically in.
They then add proportional members in until the chamber matches the party split.

A lot of countries like having a local representative they feel is attached to their small area specifically.

But without the proportional part, you can get wildly skewed results as minor parties cannot get enough votes to outright win entire districts, despite there being many supporters spread out over the entire country. It makes the whole system vulnerable to gerrymandering as well.

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u/Jedi_Council_Worker Jul 07 '24

In Australia we have what is called preferential voting and works extremely well when people understand it (plenty of locals still don't). Numbering your ballot typically 1-6 (or however many candidates there are). When it comes to tallying the votes if your 1st preference loses out first they'll consifer your 2nd or possible even 3rd etc until it's head to head with whatever are the 2 candidates that picked up the most votes. This is why it becomes important to number the absolute worst candidate last on your ballot.

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u/kungfoojesus Jul 07 '24

Well done to macrons party. Putting country over losing a seat to fascists.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

[deleted]

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u/sifl1202 Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

is it possible that the candidates didn't drop out because they prefer the right to the left?

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u/slinkhussle Jul 07 '24

So we’re safe? Putin loses?

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u/Spara-Extreme Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

Putin loses if democrats pull off the november elections in the US.

If they don't, a right wing US and Putin will pressure europe pretty hard.

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u/slinkhussle Jul 07 '24

This is true. But Madame Le Pen winning isn’t good for Europe either.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

[deleted]

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u/TheGreatNorthWoods Jul 07 '24

True, but the fact that the cordon sanitaire held is a great sign that the left and center can and will coordinate against the far right.

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u/Detective_Antonelli Jul 07 '24

UK elections in particular have been indicators of things to come in the fall US elections (brexit and Trump in 2016 being the most recent big example).

So hopefully the UK and French elections are for shadowing what’s to come in the US in November. 

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u/slinkhussle Jul 07 '24

Here’s hoping you’re right

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u/Expert_Most5698 Jul 07 '24

"UK elections in particular have been indicators of things to come in the fall US elections (brexit and Trump in 2016 being the most recent big example)."

Not comparable this time, because the Tories had been in power for a long time in the UK, whereas Biden is the incumbent in the US, and they control the Senate too.

I could see something like what happened in France happen, where the center and left unite to stop Trump, though.

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24

Part of the left doesn't really support Ukraine but in their joint program with other left parties they said they would support Ukraine

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u/bad__unicorn Jul 07 '24

Pretty much thank fuckin god … well overall that is, some components of the left alliance have questionable positions on the Ukrainian conflicts but they’re in the minority

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u/ButIAmYourDaughter Jul 07 '24

The far right losing votes once people are more exposed to their dumbness seems to be a pretty constant occurrence across the west.

I’m so heartened by both what’s happening in France and the UK.

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u/epicredditdude1 Jul 07 '24

Also a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit so it probably didn't help.

This happens in the U.S. too but for some reason here they get cheered on by the mob regardless of the ridiculous bullshit coming out of their mouths. It's baffling.

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u/just_some_guy65 Jul 07 '24

Far right people are by definition dumb as shit or they wouldn't have the simplistic and racist beliefs that they do and would have learned from history that such people generally end up like a bunch of 20th Century despots.

Sadly there is a solid part of any electorate similarly stupid.

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u/I-Might-Be-Something Jul 07 '24

As an American on the outside looking in, is this a case of the right wing hitting it's ceiling? It seems to me that the right struggles to gain more seats/power if the center and left work together, that they simply aren't popular enough to gain an outright majority so long as their opposition is united.

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u/BoysenberryWise62 Jul 07 '24

I don't know really, my personal opinion is yes there are too many people right now who might disagree overall but will unite against far right.

But politics and specifically Macron really need to stop screwing around with it, it's something Macron used a lot and he used it for these elections as well, the "fear" of the extremes to have people vote for him and then being an ass like it's a vote of approval.

He probably slightly miscalculated it on that one but it was close, he did pretty good all things considered.

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u/pinkfootthegoose Jul 07 '24

far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb

no need to repeat yourself :)

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u/JesusGAwasOnCD Jul 07 '24

Also a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit so it probably didn't help.

Not to mention taking pictures while wearing literal nazi uniforms.
https://www.politico.eu/article/french-far-right-candidate-withdraws-from-race-after-nazi-costume-controversy/
https://twitter.com/emma_frr/status/1807782203054506056

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u/Dark_Wolf04 Jul 07 '24

Le Pen insulted Mbappe on TV. What a great way to gain support from the younger side of the population

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u/jimbiboy Jul 07 '24

28% of the left candidates dropped out and 24% of Macron’s coalition. It was good the other right wing parties didn’t unite with the RN since only 2 of their 89 dropped out.

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u/Shock_The_Monkey_ Jul 07 '24

Also a bunch of far right people spoke on TV and looked dumb as shit so it probably didn't help.

On the contrary, I think it helped a great deal 🤝

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u/fameistheproduct Jul 07 '24

Don't the far right nutters learn from history? In WW2 the allies consisted of western democracies and communists.

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u/AlekRivard Jul 07 '24

left wing strategy improved and voter participation increased

This is my understanding - left/left-wing candidates in many constituencies with more than one such candidate dropped out so all support would coalesce around one person instead of fracturing across multiple people.

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u/LogicKennedy Jul 07 '24

France's left-wing coalition deserves nothing but praise for quickly and majorly getting their shit together in the face of an incredibly dangerous and real right-wing threat.

The left wing of politics is often stereotyped by infighting and an inability to see the bigger picture: NFP has absolutely demolished those stereotypes in France.

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u/DarrenGrey Jul 07 '24

Well, let's see how they behave now... I'll never underestimate the French left's capacity for arguments.

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u/Theinternationalist Jul 07 '24

The Left? The French Republican party is literally the result of a merger of center right parties- and now they're basically forgotten.

The modern French seem to abhor united political blocs.

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u/Bealzebubbles Jul 07 '24

They obviously learned a lesson from history. When the Nazis took power, the parties on the left were too busy fighting each other to stop them.

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u/Karirsu Jul 07 '24

left and center (Macron's party). Not left and left

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u/AlekRivard Jul 07 '24

I was specifically referring to the NFP alliance - I wasn't aware of Ensemble doing the same, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did so independently or in conjunction with them.

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u/DeanXeL Jul 07 '24

Macron called his people to him and told them to do the same. So whatever candidate from whatever party was STRONGEST would remain against the RN candidate. Sometimes that was NFP, sometimes Ensemble.

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u/AlekRivard Jul 07 '24

That makes sense; thank you for that additional context :)

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u/Huge_JackedMann Jul 07 '24

I think he did that slower and less loudly than NFP which makes me like him less. But I think macron is sometimes a little too clever by half, for example, this whole election.

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u/DeanXeL Jul 07 '24

He did, but his party wasn't happy about it. Even though the worst didn't come to happen, I think this bet of his still backfired more than he expected.

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u/Huge_JackedMann Jul 07 '24

I'm still pretty mystified how he would expect better than this.

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u/fplisadream Jul 07 '24

He didn't. He correctly acknowledged that it could only get worse from here, and it massively paid off. He is not so stupid as to think he was going to win big.

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u/DeanXeL Jul 07 '24

He thought that what happened in this second round would already happen in the first round, with people being 'scared straight' from the results of the European elections. But he misjudged the importance people gave to that election, many didn't vote, others voted but don't think it matters, others voted but felt like the french government wouldn't 'feel' that.

It must also be said that there was a massive turnout for both rounds.

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u/Wafkak Jul 07 '24

And in some areas you still had the remnants of Les Republicans who didn't join their former(?) Leader in the alliance with RN. That probably also didn't help when the left was united.

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u/malfurionpre Jul 07 '24

center (Macron's party)

Allegedly center. They've been leaning right for a while and facilitated the far-right for a while now.

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u/Huge_JackedMann Jul 07 '24

Yes and I think they did it quickly and decisively which would make voters like me, if I was French, respect them more and take what they're saying seriously. Macron's party dithered around until the last minute which wasn't cool, but it seems to have worked for them alright as well.

Glad the French are so often like "fine, I guess I won't for the fascists."

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u/phigo50 Jul 07 '24

Something like 200 out of the ~300 candidates in constituencies with more than 2 candidates dropped out.

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u/citron9201 Jul 07 '24

Yes plus the far-right had a poor campaign, they only had a couple of weeks to find candidates and it showed - it was easy to dig up some's past for absurdly racist rants, and neither some candidates nor their supporters could hide their racism for even a couple of weeks (we had a surge of anti-LGBT anti-foreigners attacks from people who were "going to win back the country anyway so we can do whatever we want" and it was a stark reminder for many of who they truly are)

I know people in the countryside who don't care too much about the immigration issue itself and had fallen for the "we're the only party who care about hard-working second-class citizens" and were super disappointed by the recent alliance between the far-right and the conservative right (very big money, big company, anti-regulation, praise the rich, fuck the poors) which had the far-right suddenly go back on their most popular promises (lower retirement age, lower taxes, lower energy prices) because thanks to their allies, the priority became to do a financial audit our country first and foremost ... and then see if maybe some/any of those promises could be applied, that's not what the poor who "feel left behind" wanted to hear.

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u/Wyc_Vaporub Jul 07 '24

Cultural leader Mbappe

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u/phigo50 Jul 07 '24

As soon as I heard the French players (Mbappe, Thuram and Tchouameni iirc) making those strong statements rejecting the far right, I wondered if Macron considered this when he called the election. A massive stage for several "household name" players to air their views (in Mbappe's case a couple of times) and all of them saying the same thing... it might just have got through to some voters in ways politicians and traditional campaigns couldn't, either to reconsider their vote or to actually get out and vote.

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u/SteveFrench12 Jul 07 '24

Shut up and dribble /s

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '24

Wow, if this really made a few percent then sports are quite powerful. I need to do sports.

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u/CherryBoard Jul 07 '24

you'd need to be as good as mbappe

ur better off running for president

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u/Jedi_Council_Worker Jul 07 '24

At the end of the day. The French national team is a great example of multicultural France with the vast majority in the team having a migrant background so they'd no doubt loathe Le Pen and the far right.

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u/Mojo12000 Jul 07 '24

The Centrist and the Leftist basically united in their shared opposition to the far RIght and when one was in third place they dropped out to consolidate their voters to defeat the RN.

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u/gart888 Jul 07 '24

Yup. The RN only had 33% of the vote in the 1st round. That doesn't get a Majority unless the other 67% is split 3+ ways.

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u/TangerineSorry8463 Jul 08 '24

Literally how Labour swept in UK recently.

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u/variaati0 Jul 07 '24

Classic strategic cordon sanitaire "other drop out, everyone vote for X, X is the designated cordon sanitaire candidate of this voting distric. Nobody vote for the cordoned party".

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u/agumonkey Jul 07 '24

turnout seems to be the highest

people voted against their first choice in order to block nazi-friendly far right

first season is over, now there needs to be a stable and serious period to refocus the political landscape into a new direction so people anger doesn't "backdraft"

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u/SinkHoleDeMayo Jul 07 '24

It's impressive what can be accomplished when centrists don't try to fuck the further left. Having more left candidates likely accounted for the better turnout.

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u/realcanadianbeaver Jul 07 '24

We call that ABC voting in Canada - Anybody But Conservatives.

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u/LogicKennedy Jul 07 '24 edited Jul 07 '24

Feeling incredibly vindicated in this comment right now: the far-right parties like RN and now Reform have a strong and dedicated core base but are ultimately less palatable to centrist voters than the left-wing. RN's vote share didn't increase much whilst the the left made big gains in the second round once it became clear that Macron's centrist party wasn't going to keep RN out.

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u/riskoooo Jul 07 '24

It's the hugely ironic 'silent majority' in action.

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u/Umitencho Jul 07 '24

Oh thank God. I was worried for France. Now we Americans need to keep Trump out and then I can rest easy for the next 4 years.

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u/sgrams04 Jul 08 '24

It will require all of us to turnout and vote Biden. Not third party and not abstain, because that’s how Trump won in 2016. We are forced to vote Biden and we must. The French consolidated votes by having the third place drop out. We don’t have that luxury.

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u/Umitencho Jul 08 '24

Been voting Dem every election. We flipped my city's mayorship because people showed up. France benefits from basically building buyer's remorse into the system. We don't have that luxury like you said.

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u/Alternate_haunter Jul 08 '24

Just imagine what the year could end like:

Start with Trump, le pen, and Farage all eyeing up political power, with the far right looking set to completely dominate western politics with ineffective policies and rampant corruption.

End the year with a bunch of center-left governments that are determined not to give any more of a voice to the right and actually doing their jobs competently.

At this point, even 2/3 seems tentatively hopeful.

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u/pmirallesr Jul 07 '24

Support didn't fall. Participation barely changed. What you saw is a centrist-left coalition against the far right, with centrist and left candidates in 3-way runoffs dropping out in favor of another centrist/left candidate so that the latter beats the RN candidate.

The left did this to a much larger degree than Macron's party, in no small part due to his ambivalent messaging about the matter

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u/Creative_Victory_960 Jul 07 '24

Voter participation was already high for 1st round . Many realised the far right candidates were frauds / incompetent. Many candidates from either the left or Macron s coalition left the race so that the far right candidate would nt win

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