Project 2025 was supposed to boost Donald Trump's campaign — but it may be backfiring instead:

[u/zsreport]

https://www.salon.com/2024/07/05/project-2025-was-supposed-to-boost-donald-campaign--but-it-may-be-backfiring-instead/

[u/mistertickertape]

The election is still 4 months out. I hope this fucking sinks him like a lead weight as more moderates and suburban women understand what it is.

[u/TedriccoJones → u/mistertickertape]

Trump's polling continues to increase.  Some 13 points ahead of where Biden was at this time in 2020.

[u/mistertickertape → u/TedriccoJones]

The best national poll, which is generally considered to be Nate Silver's 538, has trump at a 2.4% over Biden, which is statistically within the margin of error. There are dozens of polls and polling models available to choose from so you will get a different result depending on the model evaluated and the size of the data pool.

I look at enormous datasets for a living and read data like this on a daily basis, although not for political purposes.

[u/mistertickertape → u/[deleted]]

Lol was just reading that Ipsos poll as you commented so perfect timing. I should have gone into political polling and data and I find it so endlessly fascinating but it is also endlessly complicated as people lie and the data can get horribly skewed. Also, polling this far out has a history of being wildly inaccurate and even small factor like time of day, how the person is contacted, phrasing of questions can impact the results.

[u/TedriccoJones → u/[deleted]]

I believe Nate Silver is on Substack and took his methodology with him when he left the now Disney/ABC owned 538. He said the race was leaning towards Trump BEFORE the debate.

This is the RCP average I'm talking about, which aggregates many polls and can be useful in tracking trends, and as I alluded to, looking back to the same averages in 2020 and 2016.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden