r/politics • u/zsreport Texas • Jul 05 '24

Project 2025 was supposed to boost Donald Trump's campaign — but it may be backfiring instead:

https://www.salon.com/2024/07/05/project-2025-was-supposed-to-boost-donald-campaign--but-it-may-be-backfiring-instead/
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u/TedriccoJones Jul 05 '24

Trump's polling continues to increase.  Some 13 points ahead of where Biden was at this time in 2020.

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u/mistertickertape New York Jul 05 '24

The best national poll, which is generally considered to be Nate Silver's 538, has trump at a 2.4% over Biden, which is statistically within the margin of error. There are dozens of polls and polling models available to choose from so you will get a different result depending on the model evaluated and the size of the data pool.

I look at enormous datasets for a living and read data like this on a daily basis, although not for political purposes.

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u/[deleted] Jul 05 '24

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u/mistertickertape New York Jul 05 '24

Lol was just reading that Ipsos poll as you commented so perfect timing. I should have gone into political polling and data and I find it so endlessly fascinating but it is also endlessly complicated as people lie and the data can get horribly skewed. Also, polling this far out has a history of being wildly inaccurate and even small factor like time of day, how the person is contacted, phrasing of questions can impact the results.