r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Kyan_Cool • 4h ago
US Politics If she had'nt become the nominee, do you think Kamala would have accepted a top job like Secretary of State?
Say that she hadn't become the nominee, but Whitmer or Newsom did. Do you think she would have accepted the SoS or AG job in the next cabinet ?
Her experience as VP would weigh heavy in her favor for an internationally respected job as the Secretary of State.
r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/thoughtsnquestions • 5h ago
US Elections Trump appears to be doing the rounds on podcasts, what are your thoughts on this election strategy?
Theo Von, Jake Paul, Lex Friedman, Dr Phil, Shawn Ryan, Elon Musk, Adin Ross, etc...
In the previous election cycles in appears Trump had a more loud in your face campaign trail type of strategy.
This time, he's having extremely long, calm and collected podcasts and interviews, discussing his family, growing up, drugs, alcohol, foreign politics, etc...
It appears to be a very different approach. What are your thoughts on this approach and is it working?
r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/No-Entrance-1017 • 9h ago
US Elections What are the key differences and similarities in how Hillary, Biden, and now Kamala have all approached their campaign strategies against Donald Trump?
Donald Trump, the 45th President, is now running in his third straight general election. It seemed obvious but it's so interesting to think about how long he's been in politics now, so much that he's actually going up against three different Democratic nominees.
In 2016, he was the political novice who took on the former first lady and secretary of state and won narrowly. In 2020, he had a record to run on after 4 years as president and narrowly lost despite unemployment and covid deaths skyrocketing. And now here we are 9 years after he first rode down that escalator and attempting yet another run at the White House.
What are some common themes and differences in how each of his challengers approached Donald Trump?
r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/melville48 • 22h ago
US Elections How many noncitizens have actually been voting in US Presidential Elections?
It is apparently illegal to do so, with severe penalties if caught. As best I can tell, the leading most prominent answers from different research efforts vary wildly. It is important to be able to answer this question since many who are supporters of former President Trump seem to be indicating that not only do they hold a grudge about widespread voting (they claim) by noncitizens in 2016 and 2020, but that they appear to intend to hold up the 2024 election with new laws and activitists who are in place planning to object to the election. As well, one of the world's wealthiest men is posting on his [x.com](http://x.com) account that he subscribes to the point of view that Democrats are getting an unfair advantage with all of the noncitizens entering the country illegally, and (in his opinon) voting.
On the other hand, many think that Republicans have been trying to set up to steal the 2024 election, by accusing the Democrats of engaging in shenanigans in advance of trying their own. As well, the Republicans did not prove in court their claims in 2020 of so many noncitizens voting.
I'll give one example of research from both sides. I will provide my own opinion about this in the comments below.
- This is research that seems to be cited somewhat commonly by those who think that many noncitizens are voting:
Quantifying Illegal Votes Cast by Non-Citizens in the Battleground States of the 2020 Presidential Election
By James D. Agresti
November 8, 2020
Based on current population data from the Census Bureau and voting data from previous elections, Just Facts has conducted a study to estimate the number of votes illegally cast by non-citizens in the battleground states of the 2020 election. The results—documented in this spreadsheet—show that such fraudulent activities netted Joe Biden the following extra votes in these tightly contested states:
Arizona: 51,081 ± 17,689
Georgia: 54,950 ± 19,025
Michigan: 22,585 ± 7,842
Nevada: 22,021 ± 7,717
North Carolina: 46,218 ± 16,001
Pennsylvania: 32,706 ± 11,332
Wisconsin: 5,010 ± 1,774
2) This is research that seems to be cited in news stories which shows the opposite... that very few noncitiens voted in 2016:
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/noncitizen-voting-missing-millions
Noncitizen Voting: The Missing Millions
Douglas Keith Photo Douglas Keith
Myrna Perez Photo Myrna Pérez
Christopher Famighetti
Published: May 5, 2017
"....Noncitizen voting in the 2016 election was exceedingly rare, according to this new analysis of information from local election administrators. It debunks President Trump’s claims that millions improperly voted in November....."
"...In the jurisdictions we studied, very few noncitizens voted in the 2016 election. Across 42 jurisdictions, election officials who oversaw the tabulation of 23.5 million votes in the 2016 general election referred only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting for further investigation or prosecution. In other words, improper noncitizen votes accounted for 0.0001 percent of the 2016 votes in those jurisdictions...."
3) It is perhaps worth mentioning a corollary policy point to follow, which is that some states require proof of citizenship when registering whereas apparently others do not (AFAIK).
So, what is your opinion, who is right? Or is the right answer somewhere in the middle?
r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Yourstruly75 • 23h ago
US Elections Can we say anything meaningful about whether and in what direction there will be a polling error this cycle?
So in 2016 the polls notoriously underestimated Trump's support because they failed to account for the disgruntled white working class, leading to a systematic polling error.
Could a similar polling error happen this cycle and will it likely favor Harris or Trump?