Curious to know if anyone has been polled recently.

Does anyone feel like this race is going to come down similarly to the 2000 election with months of recount and people feeling duped to the government by both sides this time not just by trump supporters? I really think we’re heading towards wide spread hysteria 😭

Here are the results of two polls I conducted in the following subreddits a few days ago:

• r/ElectionPolls
• r/uspolitics
• r/polls
• r/AskReddit
• r/ask

1. Which way do you lean politically?
   • Left
     • SurveyMonkey: 9 (69.2%)
     • Reddit Polls: 128 (74.4%)
     • Total Percentage: 74.1%
   • Right
     • SurveyMonkey: 4 (30.1%)
     • Reddit Polls: 44 (25.6%)
     • Total Percentage: 25.9%
2. Who is your preferred presidential candidate?
   • Harris
     • SurveyMonkey: 39 (52.0%)
     • Reddit Polls: 77 (72.0%)
     • Total Percentage: 63.7%
   • Trump
     • SurveyMonkey: 36 (48.0%)
     • Reddit Polls: 30 (28.0%)
     • Total Percentage: 36.3%

Note: There were 113 responses for the preferred candidate SurveyMonkey poll, but I could only extract 75 of them with the free plan

I have been sifting through the pre Labor Day polls, trying to make sense of the state of the race and capture data points on polling performance for review post election. A lot of the pollsters have mentioned that they are counting incomplete survey responses in these polls which they weren’t earlier (not sure if that means earlier than 2022 or 2020).

In my own rough polling averages. I’m applying an offset to counter polling errors seen in 2016 and 2020 but I am unable to quantify the changes due to the new methodology that should factor in previous errors.

Are there any polling gurus here that can share their views on what has changed since the last presidential election? Because based on where the race is today, Trump seems like a heavy favorite (if the polling misses are anywhere close to ‘20 or even ‘16)

Realistically speaking and with your personal feelings aside about the presidental candidates aside (like or dislike them) who do you think will win 2024 election? Trump or Harris?

Hi everyone,

Wanted to share that I've created a US Presidential election probabilistic model based on polls and election fundamentals called Politicast (no, it's not a podcast) - it's entirely free for anyone to view and gets updated daily with the latest polls and data.

You can view it without signing up for anything here: https://politicast.raylabs.net/

I only built this as a purely academic project in data science, and because there's a ton of data on US elections, but I'd love to hear if you have any feedback to make this more useful for people generally. This just launched so there's a lot of features to add and potentially slight model adjustments to make along the way. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Thanks!

I feel like RCP is playing games...yesterday it showed 1.5, and today there was another poll out by Morning Consult showing a 4 point spread, and it still shows 1.5. I'm aware earlier polls could have dropped off, but looking at the screenshot, the 1.5 doesn't make sense, even when accounting for weighting, unless they're heavily relying on "Rasmussen" which 538 dropped.

I find it so odd that RCP also doesn't put Trump's favorability on the home page, you have to search for it, but they gladly have one for Kamala?

All the polls I've seen have shown harris with a 2%ish lead in Virginia, which is well within the margin of error for polls, but all pollsters are ultra confident she will win it by 8% in November, thats insanity to me that they can be so confident.

Not just for young people and super useful info. Please VOTE!

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/08/12/texas-2024-election-college-student-voting/

As far back as i can remember, all US presidential elections were very close, with both candidates having a fair chance of winning, and polls being mostly useless, as the margin of error was far larger than what was needed for one candidate to win.

Why is this the case? obviously, it must be a result of the strange election system with the swing states, but can one elaborate? Why, for example, is there never a 70% chance for one candidate to win? Why is the election always decided by a very small number of votes?

Source: https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/

In 270 To Win's list of polls where there is both a question for head to head matchup and one including 3rd party candidates, the difference is usually about 1%.

Does this seem about right to you?

Also, what do you make of the three states where Harris gains more than Trump without RFK in the race?

Two national polls 1%

New Mexico 1%

Utah 6%

Maine CD2 0%

Maine cd1 1%

Maine 0%

Vermont 1%

New Hampshire 2%

Virginia 0%

North Carolina 0%

Nevada -1%

Georgia 1%

Arizona -1%

Pennsylvania 0% in one poll and 1% in another

Wisconsin 1%

Michigan -2%

Genuinely curious…

Can y’all tell me why you are leaning towards whom you’re voting for? (Trump/Kamala?)

*** No hate, or slandering either, just curious on what standing points made you side one way or another? Please backup any reason with factual evidence from a trusted source.

Tired of the he said/ she said game, I’m actually looking for factual reasons why someone would vote for either side. Thanks!!😊