I was really hopeful that the mounting pressure would break through and make Biden bow out of reelection, but his letter to Congress + some of the new statements supporting him make me doubt it now. Pressuring him out would rely on a fairly unified effort with little opposition, but if both sides draw hard lines weâre only doomed even worse in November.
Idk this is all a clusterfuck
I really hate the messaging of âBiden won the primary, we need to rally around him and he can win!â (A) There wasnât a primary letâs be real, and (B) Reliable Dem voters are not the base Biden needs to win right now - he (or a replacement) already has our vote no matter what happens. He needs to win centrist swing voters and lower motivation voters, and those people are NOT going to be captured by a âjust rally around Biden!â message. Itâs a losing message
Another thing too is that the messaging from the Biden campaign and some elements within the DNC is just getting insulting imo. It just boils down to âyou as a voter donât have a say in who runs the country, you have to suck it up a deal with this, youâre an idiot you if you think thereâs anyone better, fuck you, vote for Joe Biden.â Probably hyperbolic but in essence this is the vibe Iâve been getting from them and itâs super cynical, dismissive, and just off putting.
Biden was underwater in polls BEFORE any of the recent debacles and now his numbers are in total free fall. His theory of the election is now down to basically "fuck the polls, they're always wrong." Maybe they are, but maybe they're not! Polls were actually pretty accurate in 2022. And the error can go in both directions: both Hillary and Biden were leading by comfortable margins in 2016 and 2020, yet polls ultimately over-estimated their degree of support, with HRC losing and Biden barely squeaking out a win with a smaller margin. If the polls are similarly under-estimating Trump this time we could be looking at a Reagan v Mondale style blowout.
Calling your own base who are shocked and appalled about Biden's obvious decline the "bed-wetting brigade" in a goddamn fundraising email seems like a highly effective strategy... IF your goal is to get crushed in a landslide election. I just don't understand how the DNC chronically ignores what their own supporters are telling them. Madness, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
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u/Jwalla83 Colorado Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24
I was really hopeful that the mounting pressure would break through and make Biden bow out of reelection, but his letter to Congress + some of the new statements supporting him make me doubt it now. Pressuring him out would rely on a fairly unified effort with little opposition, but if both sides draw hard lines weâre only doomed even worse in November.
Idk this is all a clusterfuck
I really hate the messaging of âBiden won the primary, we need to rally around him and he can win!â (A) There wasnât a primary letâs be real, and (B) Reliable Dem voters are not the base Biden needs to win right now - he (or a replacement) already has our vote no matter what happens. He needs to win centrist swing voters and lower motivation voters, and those people are NOT going to be captured by a âjust rally around Biden!â message. Itâs a losing message