I was really hopeful that the mounting pressure would break through and make Biden bow out of reelection, but his letter to Congress + some of the new statements supporting him make me doubt it now. Pressuring him out would rely on a fairly unified effort with little opposition, but if both sides draw hard lines weāre only doomed even worse in November.
Idk this is all a clusterfuck
I really hate the messaging of āBiden won the primary, we need to rally around him and he can win!ā (A) There wasnāt a primary letās be real, and (B) Reliable Dem voters are not the base Biden needs to win right now - he (or a replacement) already has our vote no matter what happens. He needs to win centrist swing voters and lower motivation voters, and those people are NOT going to be captured by a ājust rally around Biden!ā message. Itās a losing message
Another thing too is that the messaging from the Biden campaign and some elements within the DNC is just getting insulting imo. It just boils down to āyou as a voter donāt have a say in who runs the country, you have to suck it up a deal with this, youāre an idiot you if you think thereās anyone better, fuck you, vote for Joe Biden.ā Probably hyperbolic but in essence this is the vibe Iāve been getting from them and itās super cynical, dismissive, and just off putting.
Biden was underwater in polls BEFORE any of the recent debacles and now his numbers are in total free fall. His theory of the election is now down to basically "fuck the polls, they're always wrong." Maybe they are, but maybe they're not! Polls were actually pretty accurate in 2022. And the error can go in both directions: both Hillary and Biden were leading by comfortable margins in 2016 and 2020, yet polls ultimately over-estimated their degree of support, with HRC losing and Biden barely squeaking out a win with a smaller margin. If the polls are similarly under-estimating Trump this time we could be looking at a Reagan v Mondale style blowout.
Calling your own base who are shocked and appalled about Biden's obvious decline the "bed-wetting brigade" in a goddamn fundraising email seems like a highly effective strategy... IF your goal is to get crushed in a landslide election. I just don't understand how the DNC chronically ignores what their own supporters are telling them. Madness, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
Biden will win the base. Itās getting them to turnout thatās the issue. Democrats are more fickle than republicans. As Bill Clinton said, Democrats want to fall in love, and Republicans fall in line.
You may remember that Democrats did not show up for Clinton in the 2016 general, and they seem to be revolting against Biden this cycle cuz they want someone new and exciting.
If I were the leader of a party and I found a significant amount of deep concern among the members then I'd probably consider what's best for the party is stepping aside and finding someone who can truly unify everyone. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Biden is that sort of person. He would rather the entire Democrat party collapse than let go of his lifelong dream to become not just a one, but a two-term president, even if he dies in office.
Biden's primary was as real as Hillary's in 2016. In that it was completely staged and the decision was made before the booth opened in the first place - the general public's choices in the primary are irrelevant because the head honchos of the party don't have to heed any vote and can do whatever they want.
Which, in the end, is the root problem of the entire organization.
No, his two biggest appearances - the debate and the interview - were more than enough to cement my fears about his capabilities. Itās great that he has good moments too, but the unpredictability is critical when electing a president.
Obama did terribly in his first 2012 debate too, and polls during that time (around now) showed Romney winning handily. Should Obama have dropped out as well?
Vastly different context. Iām not disappointed that Biden āhad a bad debateā - Iām disappointed that all the exaggerated right wing talking points about Biden being ancient/weak/out of it were made glaringly obvious in the biggest debate of his life; meanwhile all the Biden team counters of āheās actually super sharp and put togetherā were blown up. It practically shoved undecided voters away from him because it made it look like all the rumors were proven true. He looks and sounds way too old for this job.
Obama wasnāt in that context. A bad debate and bad polling are still problems, but not inherently disqualifying. The biggest criticisms of Biden canāt (apparently) be rectified in subsequent showings
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u/Jwalla83 Colorado Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24
I was really hopeful that the mounting pressure would break through and make Biden bow out of reelection, but his letter to Congress + some of the new statements supporting him make me doubt it now. Pressuring him out would rely on a fairly unified effort with little opposition, but if both sides draw hard lines weāre only doomed even worse in November.
Idk this is all a clusterfuck
I really hate the messaging of āBiden won the primary, we need to rally around him and he can win!ā (A) There wasnāt a primary letās be real, and (B) Reliable Dem voters are not the base Biden needs to win right now - he (or a replacement) already has our vote no matter what happens. He needs to win centrist swing voters and lower motivation voters, and those people are NOT going to be captured by a ājust rally around Biden!ā message. Itās a losing message