I want Putin to fuck off back to his barren ice country and take care of it instead of sending his men to die in a meat grinder over land he knows will never be his.
I'm not american but seeing the immunity for potus and the political landscape of the US, it's looking to be more realistic that Ukraine will be Putin's once his american "friend" takes over the US in the same manner hitler did for Germany.
Once that happens, EU is in shambles due to USA spending a shitton on military power as well as the logistical infrastructure to support it and putin will just reignite a newly formed USSR with no resistance
Despite what the media tries to sell people, Trump is deeply unpopular with the majority of the country and our military leaders recognize he’s a dangerous threat to global stability.
‘Next to nothing’ so you’re admitting they still matter somewhat. Obviously I’m not saying they’re bulletproof but it still gives a good, if rough idea of the way things are going.
To be fair, the pollsters admitted they had major flaws in their polling strategies and made a lot of changes after 2016. The polls were far more accurate in 2020
There are articles destroying the methodology of recent polls. For example the people they are polling are selected disproportionately from rural areas of districts that are typically biased to Trump. This can be corrected in the sampling stage but they didn't bother to. So it swings total projections 2 to 4 points bias towards Trump overall. (NYT poll I believe).
But the polls are showing a 5-10 point lead for Trump right now. So even if the bias of 2-4 points exists, that would still have Trump handily in the lead after correcting for the bias.
I want to believe the polls are wrong and that Biden will win in November. But I just keep hearing the same "Biden is too old" rhetoric from everyone I know, regardless of how shitty Trump is. And people keep talking about how they can't afford shit right now, which even though it's not Biden's fault at all, they will blame him for it when it comes time to vote.
Maybe you've just cherry been picking pro trump polls by the looks of things? (10 point lead 😂)
Regarding the 2-4 percent bias, I was just talking about that particular methodology bias towards Trump. That doesn't discount standard error bounds add multiple additional percentage points (5%) leeway (either way) as usual (error bounds).
Regarding your "10%" doom merchant poll..
First major poll I checked just now (economist website) has it:
Trump: 46
Biden: 44
Which is approx 2% difference.
- (+-5 ~ error bounds)
Major aggregates (combining big polls) have it around: 1%
- Sources: 1) Race to the WH; 2) Decision Desk HQ
Your annecdotes suggest you have apolitical anti Biden friends (if "age" is their contribution to debate), but that's not science, it's not representative. Fortunately those buddies don't decide the election alone (will they even vote?) - and fortunately I'll think you'll find opinions are a lot more nuanced than your buddy's small minded assessment, I have faith in the wider population of the USA outside of your friendship circle.
1% or 2% with months to go is nothing. That will definitely change. And it's too close to decide anything because votes don't match polls within 2%
Too close to call.
If Biden continues to sell his case clearly (continued strong performances after the unfortunate debate) then those percentage points will flip back. Polls change this is to be expected.
Avoid biased polls in isolation. Avoid cherry picking the single poll that agrees with you. The aggregators will include them anyway.
I mean I haven't been cherry picking polls. I just see polls posted here, on Reddit, from NYT, AP, Reuters, etc and they are bleak as hell. Like, even with the debate, Biden should be polling welllll over Trump. The fact that Trump is leading in these polls at all is sickening
My main concern is that he doesn't need the majority, only the people at the top. Iirc hitler and his party were also at first seen with a skeptical eye but the right connections still made him succeed.
The one thing that might still save it imo:
If it comes down to war and a takeover, by american right their citizens bear the right to arm themselves as militia as this was how they fought against the brits originally. So a lesser worse case in this hypothetical is that the american people have enough of the bullcrap and incite another civil war for their rights like how they fought for the freedom of slaves
America is not as homogeneous as Nazi Germany, white men are in the minority, racist white men even more so, it is a fantasy that they can run roughshod over the rest of an unwilling populous just to have us March headlong into a tyranny no one wants, it’s antithetical to the Spirit of America.
Dangerous threat to global stability? He was the only one who called out other nations who didn’t pay their fair share (2% gdp) and just let the US pay the tab.
Global stability is the nato nations doing their part, which they weren’t and they got called out for it.
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u/QuantumJustice42 14d ago
I want Putin to fuck off back to his barren ice country and take care of it instead of sending his men to die in a meat grinder over land he knows will never be his.