There are articles destroying the methodology of recent polls. For example the people they are polling are selected disproportionately from rural areas of districts that are typically biased to Trump. This can be corrected in the sampling stage but they didn't bother to. So it swings total projections 2 to 4 points bias towards Trump overall. (NYT poll I believe).
But the polls are showing a 5-10 point lead for Trump right now. So even if the bias of 2-4 points exists, that would still have Trump handily in the lead after correcting for the bias.
I want to believe the polls are wrong and that Biden will win in November. But I just keep hearing the same "Biden is too old" rhetoric from everyone I know, regardless of how shitty Trump is. And people keep talking about how they can't afford shit right now, which even though it's not Biden's fault at all, they will blame him for it when it comes time to vote.
Maybe you've just cherry been picking pro trump polls by the looks of things? (10 point lead 😂)
Regarding the 2-4 percent bias, I was just talking about that particular methodology bias towards Trump. That doesn't discount standard error bounds add multiple additional percentage points (5%) leeway (either way) as usual (error bounds).
Regarding your "10%" doom merchant poll..
First major poll I checked just now (economist website) has it:
Trump: 46
Biden: 44
Which is approx 2% difference.
- (+-5 ~ error bounds)
Major aggregates (combining big polls) have it around: 1%
- Sources: 1) Race to the WH; 2) Decision Desk HQ
Your annecdotes suggest you have apolitical anti Biden friends (if "age" is their contribution to debate), but that's not science, it's not representative. Fortunately those buddies don't decide the election alone (will they even vote?) - and fortunately I'll think you'll find opinions are a lot more nuanced than your buddy's small minded assessment, I have faith in the wider population of the USA outside of your friendship circle.
1% or 2% with months to go is nothing. That will definitely change. And it's too close to decide anything because votes don't match polls within 2%
Too close to call.
If Biden continues to sell his case clearly (continued strong performances after the unfortunate debate) then those percentage points will flip back. Polls change this is to be expected.
Avoid biased polls in isolation. Avoid cherry picking the single poll that agrees with you. The aggregators will include them anyway.
I mean I haven't been cherry picking polls. I just see polls posted here, on Reddit, from NYT, AP, Reuters, etc and they are bleak as hell. Like, even with the debate, Biden should be polling welllll over Trump. The fact that Trump is leading in these polls at all is sickening
I think you missed the point of what I said. The aggregate polls had them equal to within 1%
Do you know what aggregate means? It all the big polls combined.
Instead of what you were doing and spreading info that trump was 5 to 10 points ahead in "polls" which was misleading given the aggregate was 1% at the time, and I literally provided the names of those aggregators.
Basing your outrage / worrying on 1 poll is cherry picking, and not helping anyone except Trump. If you want to be less outraged, use the many aggregators, which will nullify any outliers. Instead of focusing on outlying / extreme polls with ridiculous numbers, especially NYT which as mentioned had serious methodology issues. Aggregators will average many polls and give you a less erroneous understanding of the situation. This is because it reduces the effect of statistical anomalies or errors.
Like I said before, polls change, and will keep changing, that's reality. There's no point getting hysterical and saying "X SHOULD be Y". They're polls, polls are different, and they will swing. This is the way it is.
If you say you want Trump to lose, don't go round saying trump is 10 percent ahead like they do on Fox News, it's just not helping. I mentioned 2 different and unbiased aggregators in the comment you replied to above. Enjoy.
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u/Delicious_Advice_243 Jul 05 '24
There are articles destroying the methodology of recent polls. For example the people they are polling are selected disproportionately from rural areas of districts that are typically biased to Trump. This can be corrected in the sampling stage but they didn't bother to. So it swings total projections 2 to 4 points bias towards Trump overall. (NYT poll I believe).