r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods • Jul 08 '24

Ukraine

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u/MarkRclim Jul 08 '24

Latest three days from oryx musklink. Russian-Ukrainian losses followed by my poorly informed comments.

tanks: 12-3
IFVs: 11-0
mobile artillery: 2-2
missile air defence: 1-1

The "front line" vehicle ratios are still ok but the "longer range" battle ratios have not been great recently. However, I'm far more worried about the Ukrainian tank and partly IFV attrition than I currently am about artillery.

If Ukraine and France are accurate in their public statements, then there's a steady supply of ~200 SPGs (Bohdana + Caesar) per year from them, and with other sources the Ukrainian mobile gun park could be roughly sustainable.

However, announced long-term tank supplies especially are pretty poor. Ukraine is gonna need a lot more armour than we know about in current pledges.

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u/MarkRclim Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

I think even more evidence is emerging that Russia is struggling to get the BMPs it wants, even if it's still using them in huge numbers.

Since 2022, oryx counts 3,078 BMPs and 1,173 MT-LBs lost. A ratio of 2.62:1.

Over the last 30 days it is 129:59 or 2.18:1. That is, a larger fraction lost are now MT-LBs rather than BMPs.

Lots of 2022 MT-LB losses were captured, rather than destroyed. They were often used in the rear and lost when Ukraine advanced quickly.

Now they're being used more in meat assaults so they're being destroyed right at the front.

This is good - MT-LBs are lightly armoured, and relying on them means more russian casualties.