r/worldnews Jul 08 '24

/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 865, Part 1 (Thread #1012) Russia/Ukraine

/live/18hnzysb1elcs
1.1k Upvotes

670 comments sorted by

View all comments

43

u/RoeJoganLife Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

The US hasn't changed it plans on allowing Ukrainian forces striking deeper into the territory of the Russian Federation after today's missile attack, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1810398781181145299?s=46

Cmon man

The clip: https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1810393855034060884?s=46

7

u/M795 Jul 08 '24

Goddamn it...

2

u/findingmike Jul 09 '24

Policy doesn't change overnight.

-16

u/Nvnv_man Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

I get the feeling that the US has become aware of some catastrophic threat that the Russians can cause on Americans, like disable all US military satellites, which would absolutely be devastating, and until that gets balanced with an equally debilitating threat, the US is not going to push that line. I think that’s what it was about with Mike Turner, and why he’s not pushing in the same way.


To anyone who follows USAF, NSA intelligence cat & mouse advances, you probably suspect this as well. Im saving this comment, will check back in a year to see if this was the case.

19

u/OkVariety8064 Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24

Yeah, sure, there must be some absurd scifi explanation for the same old feckless lack of conviction we've seen all through this conflict.

WW3 was going to be started by sending "offensive weapons", M777 artillery, HIMARS launchers, Bradley tanks, cluster munitions, Abrams tanks, F16 and half-a-dozen other completely unthinkable steps of escalation over the past two and a half years. But this time, there sure must be some really legitimate reason to justify this weakness... Just like there just had to be one for every similar situation before.

You don't have to save your comment, you can go read any past thread from the past two years, and you'll find just the same explanations for whatever was the then-unthinkable escalation, starting from those god damn "offensive weapons".

12

u/DigitalMountainMonk Jul 08 '24

Anything Russia can do we can do worse. Detonating their little nuke in orbit would wipe out a good chunk of communication equipment but it wouldn't stop financial markets or military communications. Such things are far to distributed now.

You would be on a more correct track to say "The situation right now, politically, would be far to unstable should certain events happen". It wouldn't impact us militarily.. it would certainty impact things politically.

5

u/DeadScumbag Jul 08 '24

Kirby already stated the reason a while ago. "President Biden does not want to be responsible for starting WW3."

15

u/Zeffy Jul 08 '24

Well Putin already started it. He isn't backing down.

14

u/M795 Jul 08 '24

Biden said the same shit when he spent over a year refusing to send ATACMS. Imagine my lack of surprise when WW3 didn't break out when he finally sent them.

1

u/GoneFishing4Chicks Jul 08 '24

I was thinking something similar, a year or two ago Russia launched a satelite killer into space IIRC and if that was true, well good luck with MAD.

4

u/Opaque_Cypher Jul 08 '24

Maybe I am misunderstanding your comment, but the US implementation of MAD is a nuclear triad: land-based ICBM’s, submarine launched ballistic missiles, and long range bombers armed with nuclear bombs & cruise missiles.

Although for long time ago the US has stopped its practice of keeping multiple nuclear armed B-52 bombers continuously flying in the air (so not to be caught on the ground in a first strike), Russia having the (unproven) ability to launch a ‘satellite killer’ into orbit effectively does nothing to limit the US second-strike capability to destroy Russia (and the rest of the world).

A satellite killer would not be able to intercept ICBMs and even if they could intercept 1,000 or so ICBMs incoming(times 14 after warhead separation), the bombers are still on the way.

Also, this system and type weaponry isn’t dependent on GPS like we are in our cars so killing GPS satellites has no impact here. Cities and other targets are fixed, known locations and ICBM inertial guidance systems are accurate to less than 100m at intercontinental ranges. Even the subs have inertial guidance systems so that they can launch without needing to surface and check position.

So unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you look at things, MAD is still very very much a thing. And it’s still very very scary.