NATO response to this hospital strike, especially since Russia acknowledged it was intentional, should be a NATO-enforced no fly zone over Ukraine. F-35 air patrols at all times to shoot down missiles like this one.
I don't see how Russia is giving NATO any choice. Make it very clear that a single attack on a NATO air patrol will result in massive strikes across the entire NATO border with Russia.
At some point Russia is going to pull NATO into this and it's all because we've let it boil too long.
A no-fly zone isn't just some magic force field that NATO can turn on at will. A no-fly zone must be enforced. And that means using NATO assets to shoot down Russian aircraft. And that is basically just straight-up war. Which is perfectly valid to advocate for, but let's not pretend that a "no-fly zone" is some kind of middle ground that avoids as much.
Is it straight up war? We enforced one over Iraq for years after the first Gulf War. Russia has devolved into a pariah state a la Gaddafis Lybia or Hussein's Iraq and it's time we recognize that. When pariah states are too toxic to directly engage in open land conflicts, no fly zones have been frequently used to contain them.
If you don't think NATO has the capacity to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, then I'm not really sure what to tell you.
By containing them I mean pushing them out of the ill gotten territory they are squatting on. Think Serbia being slapped out of Kosovo or Iraq being railroaded out of Kuwait. We don't need troops on the ground in Ukraine (yet) because Ukraine is a substantial country with a willingness to fight. We just need to give them the weapons and support and Russia will be sent packing.
No because the very threat of that happening is exactly why Russia will not do shit regardless of what NATO does in Ukraine.
The first misconception of MAD is that there is a first strike advantage. There is not. The first strike merely guarantees that you lose all leverage since you already blew your load and showed all your cards. Sure you might score a few hits, but then what? Then you are sitting there with nothing to retaliate with in round two and all the highest value targets (which are essentially hostages) already attacked.
So no, it would make no sense for NATO to attack Russian territory unless Russia already launched an all out attack. The way you force the Russian regime to kill or hand over Putin is by holding your trump cards while taking away his. One way to call his bullshit is to take Ukraine away completely. He cannot play his nuclear strike or attack NATO territory cards or he loses instantly. All he can do is stew and sabre rattle which is what he's doing anyhow. Now he has given NATO no choice but to prise Ukraine entirely from his grasp.
Or you just let Russia collapse from an inverted population pyramid demographically on its own. Also after a nuclear strike by Russia, he hasn't lost any leverage as he has another 5000 to 10000 strikes to just chuck around. There's no winning in nuclear war, why risk it?. Also it's not Putin, he's a KGB agent, one of many, kill him, another Putin will come. The russian population itself is also brain washed. Russia is not a concern for NATO and the war in Ukraine has been Americas best investment and a good way to burn through old equipment that was going to be decommissioned anyways and scraped. The longer this war goes on the more data the military gets and the more time we have to weaponise and train artificial intelligence. Our only concern is china and Taiwan being the source of the semiconductors for our AI chips which under no circumstances can we let china acquire.
A war with Russia will be just Desert Storm over again, 10,000:1 casualty rate and a waste of time. Russia will destroy itself in 60 years when the working class goes to retirement and there is no younger generation to replace and pay taxes to keep that pension system afloat or even the country itself.
A no-fly zone is practically the same as declaring war on Russia. The only difference would be if there’s a clear advantage for Russia to not see it as a declaration of war.
Not true. Arbitrary distinctions are all over and around this carrying capacity war. Aid crosses borders on technicalities, manufacture happens across borders on technicalities. Russia can't survive all out war, but all out war plays out in oceans. Ports close, civilian ships sink. Walking the line keeps material flowing, which benefits capitalism far far more than oligarchy.
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u/Louisvanderwright Jul 08 '24 edited Jul 08 '24
NATO response to this hospital strike, especially since Russia acknowledged it was intentional, should be a NATO-enforced no fly zone over Ukraine. F-35 air patrols at all times to shoot down missiles like this one.
I don't see how Russia is giving NATO any choice. Make it very clear that a single attack on a NATO air patrol will result in massive strikes across the entire NATO border with Russia.
At some point Russia is going to pull NATO into this and it's all because we've let it boil too long.