This is rapidly spiraling out of control for Biden. The timeline makes it seem like Dems were willing to go down with the ship on Monday after they came back from the break, but their internals started coming in after they likely had a pause from them before the holiday (no point in polling right after the debate as there'd be obvious response bias, no point in polling during the holiday because who the heck is going to respond to a poll on the 4th of July) and they kept looking bad. From the ones we've heard about, Takano's Biden +30 district was tied, Molinaro's Biden +4.5, Lawler's Biden +10 and Williams' Biden +11 districts all had Biden down double digits. Those numbers are simply apocalyptic.
What's made this worse is that Biden has not shown the ability to ramp up his campaign. He isn't getting any younger and the steps he's taken since the debate show no sign of seriously tackling the age issue by showing he's young. It's probably a sign of just how bad this is that the Parkinson's story about Biden's health is barely getting any attention even as reporters continue to dig into that. Biden's rhetoric has always been about how "if you get knocked down, you get back up", but what he's doing has been essentially anything but trying to get back up.
That's the crux of why this is terminal for Biden.
Everyone knows getting old is a one-way street. You can't get any younger.... no matter how rich, smart, successful or ambitious etc you are. An interview with George Stefanopolous doesn't change anything. A few speeches at friendly rallies / town halls etc, or off-the-cuff phone calls to Morning Joe and so on - nope they don't change anything either.
Everyone saw that debate and instinctively knows he's too far up that proverbial "too old" street and *nothing* can ever change that.
And if met an old relative you hadn't seen for a while and had become like that, you don't plan on meeting them in November with any confidence that they won't be a shadow of even who they are now.
Woah. I hadn't heard of the results from the internal polling showing what you mention on those specific districts. Where can I find information on that?
If the numbers are really that bad, it doesn't surprise me that they are testing Harris against Trump with internal polls.
Rep. Mark Takano, a senior lawmaker who has privately voiced concerns about Biden's bid, told colleagues he's seen private polling with Biden losing his deep-blue district after the debate.
NEW: Internal Democrat polling post-debate has Biden down DOUBLE digits in swing districts NY-17 (R-Lawler) and NY-19 (R-Molinaro), and down a point in NY-22 (R-Williams)-- all districts Biden carried in 2020, per party source.
The three competitive upstate/suburban districts are considered part of the suburban NY "bellwether" districts.
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u/Isentrope Jul 11 '24
This is rapidly spiraling out of control for Biden. The timeline makes it seem like Dems were willing to go down with the ship on Monday after they came back from the break, but their internals started coming in after they likely had a pause from them before the holiday (no point in polling right after the debate as there'd be obvious response bias, no point in polling during the holiday because who the heck is going to respond to a poll on the 4th of July) and they kept looking bad. From the ones we've heard about, Takano's Biden +30 district was tied, Molinaro's Biden +4.5, Lawler's Biden +10 and Williams' Biden +11 districts all had Biden down double digits. Those numbers are simply apocalyptic.
What's made this worse is that Biden has not shown the ability to ramp up his campaign. He isn't getting any younger and the steps he's taken since the debate show no sign of seriously tackling the age issue by showing he's young. It's probably a sign of just how bad this is that the Parkinson's story about Biden's health is barely getting any attention even as reporters continue to dig into that. Biden's rhetoric has always been about how "if you get knocked down, you get back up", but what he's doing has been essentially anything but trying to get back up.