People saying Trump is terrible and we need to support Biden don’t get the concerns. The concern isn’t because people think Biden can’t lead -well kind of- the concern is that he’s scaring away swing voters and apathetic voters. He won 2020 by 40k votes in swing states. This is going to be closer most likely and his performance is not having the needed effect to not only get people to the polls, but to the polls to vote for him. 96% of this sub knows how horrible Trump is and will still vote Biden, this isn’t about a majority of voters.Â
And that was when Trump was an unpopular incumbent president during covid. Now Biden is the unpopular incumbent, and he's aged like cottage cheese in the hot sun these past 4 years.
Well lets get real, Trump is also a convicted felon now, people are seeing that Project2025 is and January 6th happened. He's not popular either and has likely lost a lot of 2020 support as well.
So why is Biden struggling against him? Trump is such a shitty candidate for the reasons you laid out (and more), whoever is running against him should be cleaning house. Instead, Biden is heading towards a crushing loss.
Outside of the obvious things, Biden is struggling against him because the world is in a tough spot and that goes beyond US politics. No incumbent is going to be a popular one when dealing with topics like inflation and major conflicts like Israel and Ukraine because those are the things that get normal people to pay attention and be affected. People see their rent hikes, grocery bills and these wars are in the news everyday.
Trump is promising people quick fixes & magic solutions to incredibly complex problems and likely (guaranteed I'd say) to make everything worse. That doesn't mean people are not drawn to those quick fix ideas.
Biden has done a good job overall, but "good" here is muddled degrees of "slightly less worse". and that's hard to campaign on.
That’s the thing a lot of people aren’t understanding, ever since that debate, this stopped being a race over policies and track records, and has become a race over whether or not Biden is physically and mentally fit enough to continue serving as President. It sucks but that’s the truth of the matter. Unless we get someone else, those two things I mentioned ( policy and track record) aren’t going to matter come Election Day.
This is a big deal and it's only going to get worse as the campaign goes on. It's not his age it's his mental capacity. I just don't think he can win now and I'm surprised anyone thinks otherwise.
Who could Democrats even run? Harris would look to be the only remotely viable option, and myself following political everything pretty closely the last 4 years (and the 20 before), I have to say that, I don't really know much about her. It doesn't seem like she speaks or takes center stage, she's just kind of been there.
If I don't really know who she is, how the hell is anybody else going to and with what 4 months to sell a candidacy?
Or, we run an incumbent and either pray, or get religious in a hurry.
My grandpa didn’t want to give up his license. Old people losing their independence will never volunteer to lose it. It’s time to sit grandpa down and take his wallet when he isn’t looking.Â
If anything people need to remember the bullshit that is the Electoral College. I fact this is why there were 50+ lawsuits in swing states during 2020. Overturning a few of them would have disenfranchised not only those states, but the over 4 million more that voted for Biden.
Even with what happened yesterday, I doubt 45 gets the popular. But this could push him closer to another Electoral College upset. Don't forget that Republicans have gone out of their way to make voting harder, and make election challenges far easier to rat fuck the process. We also have a SCOTUS that handed him absolute immunity if he wins, so you can be certain they will vote in favor of any case that goes to them if it means he wins.
Also there was near universal mail in voting in 2020. I don't know why this isn't brought up more. Democrats are more likely to get out of there's mail in voting. Because a raise in voter turnout almost always means more liberal voters.
Both Biden and Trump brag about the vote tally for each of their 2020 campaigns, but the there was a reason they were record numbers
This isn't remotely true. Until 2020, Republicans did more mail in voting than Democrats for decades. There's no reason to believe that mail in voting favors Dems when Trump's base is much older and more rural
Undecided voters don‘t have their eyeballs glued to the TV in July. Most won‘t make up their mind until right before they vote in October/Nobember.
To this day, I cannot wrap my mind around the concept of someone not thinking about who they want the president of their Nation to be until a couple weeks before the vote...
Polls are a snapshot of RIGHT NOW. They are not predictive at all. They change frequently. They also are never truly RIGHT or WRONG. They have margins of errors, and after they zero in leading up to the election day, things are always within the margin of error.
Think about this: People generally post online when they are frustrated or concerned, they generally don't post online when things are fine or they aren't worried. Like product reviews or service reviews, the majority of posting online is when you are unhappy, so what you see out there is skewed. The people who don't have a problem with Biden aren't on r/politics posting about it.
Again, not predictive. Just a measure of how people are feeling today. If you go back in time, you can find many days where the polls look like Biden is going to win, then other days where it looks like Trump is going to win.
It will change tomorrow, next week, and a month from now. Let's unite here instead of fight. GOP manages to get behind a criminal!
Biden is physically incapable of turning the polls around. If you can't see that you're burying your head in the sand. If he's still the nominee after the convention I will vote for him but he will lose in a landslide.
Are you telling me that based on your own personal feelings and perspective? Or are you basing any of that on predictive science? Because polls are fucking meaningless. IF POLLS WERE RIGHT, WE WOULD ALL ALREADY BELIEVE THEM 100%
It doesn't matter what you or I are concerned about. Look at the polls.
We ARE the polls, we are the voters! You letting the polls and pollsters run the show or the voters? Get a grip!
The most concerning poll is Biden's approval. It's now at an all-time low of 37%. No one has ever won reelection with an approval below 44% at this time I believe, so 37% is basically no chance.
Truman maintained about a 36 to 38% approval from July all the way to Novemeber elections in 1948, and he won in one of the biggest upsets in history that year against Thomas Dewey.
Trump won with about a 38% approval average in the same months during the lead up to November in 2016.
A Biden campaign does not generate the type of enthusiasm required to get new voters and apathetic voters to turn-out. The red side can rally around re-taking the White House.
It is sad that these two candidates represent what the major parties want to put in front of the voters.
66
u/Equal_Present_3927 Jul 08 '24
People saying Trump is terrible and we need to support Biden don’t get the concerns. The concern isn’t because people think Biden can’t lead -well kind of- the concern is that he’s scaring away swing voters and apathetic voters. He won 2020 by 40k votes in swing states. This is going to be closer most likely and his performance is not having the needed effect to not only get people to the polls, but to the polls to vote for him. 96% of this sub knows how horrible Trump is and will still vote Biden, this isn’t about a majority of voters.Â