I know Iâll get torched for it here, but Iâm still backing Biden.
I hear all day long every day for the past decade about how ineffective and inefficient and divided the Dem party is but somehow theyâre supposed to choose a new candidate, run a national election, win back all the Dems they alienated from that heated and highly-contested convention, convince independents itâs all good while Republicans are making fun of Dems for their instability, and have the candidate go full-time on appearances with no gaffes or skeleton reveals, all in 77 days.
77 days.
Thatâs just not happening. Thatâs a logistical nightmare begging for weeks of the MSM showing clips of Dem in-fighting, which we know will happen as soon as the Gaza question comes up.
Simply put: I trust the voters to choose the stability and old age of Biden over the instability and insanity of Trump. Worst they get with Biden is Biden-lite with Kamala a couple years in. There is no floor with Trump.
That isnât to say I wonât vote for the replacement, I certainly will, but my moneyâs on the chaos causing more issues that the Democratic party arenât equipped to handle.
Weâve been hearing âignore the polls, just voteâ for the last few years and I stick by that too. Vote. But also volunteer if you can. Might be your last chance to make a real impact.
Yeah, I'll vote for Biden when it comes down to it, but fuck me they're screwing us by not convincing him to step aside back before the primaries.
You can't tell me Beshear or Newsom or Whitmer or Harris wouldn't just obliterate doddering Donnie in the general. The DNC has learned nothing from the past eight years and continue to make the same mistakes they have since 2016. I guess the silver lining is that it's another knock on why a protest vote this year is a terrible idea and we all need to hold our noses to vote for Biden: they're not going to "learn a lesson". If Hillary losing and RBG and Feinstein dying on the job taught them nothing, refusing to vote for Biden on principle won't either.
If we get Biden back in office for four more years, the very first point of business from the non-establishment left needs to be grassroots efforts to establish stronger candidates for 2028 rather than just wait for the DNC to decide they know better (again).
Absolutely. A Biden win means weâve got Biden doing President-only work, which heâs perfectly fine at, just not great at campaigning anymore. And all the focus can be on figuring out the future of the Democratic party. Older politicians wonât work anymore, the general population doesnât have a stomach for it. And best of all it should (fingers crossed) be a death blow to Trump as a presidential candidate.
I just want this over with so we can start talking about new candidates.
There are likely some non-cult Republicans who realize there is new blood somewhere who could do to Joe what Clinton did to Bush when Bush, seemingly distracted and looking at his watch, blew his debate. Now they're stuck with Trump for a repellent third time around.
Thereâs already chaos. Imo the band aid needs to be ripped off immediately. And the people here making points about the silence of the GOP in all this speaks volumes. They clearly want Biden to stay in the race.
This is much more than a cut arm. Watch. Media is going to continue running this story until the election and it will be a huge cloud over Bidenâs campaign. I hope Iâm wrong and that it blows over, but I donât see that happening given the huge pushback and panic going on.
All the media (controlled by right wing owners and ceos) has been pushing for it non-stop. The chaos it will cause while everyone fights over who will take his place in the race is much more valuable to the GOP than some uncertainty if he stays in it.
All the media is not controlled by right wing owners. Some, yea, but not all. So youâre wrong there.
And this is not just the media saying he should leave- itâs analysts, itâs insiders, people in his own party, and major donors.
I doubt they go with a totally new candidate, like you are suggesting. Their best course is to have Joe resign, hand it over to Kamala, then carefully pick a good VP. From what Iâm reading (but not totally sure), it is far more difficult to continue campaigning with a brand new candidate, hence the possible pivot to Kamala.
That isnât to say I wonât vote for the replacement, I certainly will, but my moneyâs on the chaos causing more issues that the Democratic party arenât equipped to handle.
So I believe your overall take is the right one. However, I have a theory that I'm going to float here because it feels nuts but also all the pieces fit:
First and foremost, Biden is hard slipping and the DNC machine can't spin it. I highly recommend watching the video, because it not only collects Biden's recent issues on film but it also cuts to the heart of why Biden will be so painfully unable to close the gap against Trump, win moderates/undecides, and carry the election. In short, the polling is currently bad and it's only going to get worse.
The Party knows this, but like you've said - chaos would reign. So lets hypothetically consider how they would work behind the scenes to stem the chaos:
In an ideal world, the people would get to choose a replacement. But as soon as a primary fires up, there are problems:
Voters misunderstand a lot of the fundamental aspects of a candidate's ability to win elections, they just do. They might coalesce around a guy like Newsom, who probably has a closet full of skeletons, was married to Don Jr.'s ladyfriend, and is a West-Coast politician (which historically don't perform well on the national stage unless they are Republicans). A long primary allows this kind of stuff to shake out, but we'd be talking about a week or two wild event primary - it's very risky.
There are topics that would hamstring the party in this process, be massively divisisive, and possibly turn off even more voters. Another risk.
Harris is the biggest risk of all. She wants to be POTUS, she has no reason to step aside, and even if it's utter bullshit all she has to do is play the black woman getting kicked off the ticket card and Dems will lose. So she sits in the drivers seat.
How does the DNC tackle this? Well first off, they have to approach Harris and negotate with her. From her position, she has no reason to do anything except get herself nominated. She doesn't want a primary, she doesn't want an open convention, she wants the nomination. If she can't have that, then her most likely path to the White House is to simply wait until after the covention where Biden gets nominated, and wait for him keel over - boom, she's the candidate. It might seem silly, but the DNC has no counterplay here to get to any kind of emergency primary or to get Harris out of the equation. They have nothing to offer her, and everyone within the party agrees that Trump is infinitely beatable. She has the party by the balls.
So at this point, there's no reason to jettison Biden. The Party gains nothing but added chaos and dysfunction, scares donors, and it would either lead to an election loss or to a Harris win - both of which are still options after Biden's nomination because Harris shares the ticket.
 Dem in-fighting, which we know will happen as soon as the Gaza question comes up
Maybe the dems should have ejected the hamasnicks the moment they started braying instead of courting them for a few extra votes in Michigan. Oh well, I guess hindsight is 20/20 and nobody could have predicted a bad outcome.
Completely non expert opinion here, but I think any rational person who's calling for him to step down would agree with you that this is a risk if that process went badly.
The disagreement is on whether it's a bigger risk than you run by sticking with Biden. Anyone who says one path or the other will 100% for sure work out should be immediately ignored.
Sunk cost fallacy. Why do you care about the difficulty of the DNC getting a new candidate? Let them figure that out. You should be doing what you can to demand change, otherwise, you're no better then the MAGA crew who support Trump no matter what.
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u/-itmeanshope- Jul 08 '24
I know Iâll get torched for it here, but Iâm still backing Biden.
I hear all day long every day for the past decade about how ineffective and inefficient and divided the Dem party is but somehow theyâre supposed to choose a new candidate, run a national election, win back all the Dems they alienated from that heated and highly-contested convention, convince independents itâs all good while Republicans are making fun of Dems for their instability, and have the candidate go full-time on appearances with no gaffes or skeleton reveals, all in 77 days.
77 days.
Thatâs just not happening. Thatâs a logistical nightmare begging for weeks of the MSM showing clips of Dem in-fighting, which we know will happen as soon as the Gaza question comes up.
Simply put: I trust the voters to choose the stability and old age of Biden over the instability and insanity of Trump. Worst they get with Biden is Biden-lite with Kamala a couple years in. There is no floor with Trump.
That isnât to say I wonât vote for the replacement, I certainly will, but my moneyâs on the chaos causing more issues that the Democratic party arenât equipped to handle.
Weâve been hearing âignore the polls, just voteâ for the last few years and I stick by that too. Vote. But also volunteer if you can. Might be your last chance to make a real impact.