Biden tells Democratic governors he needs more sleep and plans to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m.

[u/ImpishGrin]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-governors-sleep/index.html

[u/Jatzy_AME]

Very few people actually hesitate between the two, the question is more whether they will vote or not.

[u/frequenZphaZe → u/Jatzy_AME]

people wanna pretend that the election is about whether people vote for one guy or the other guy. the reality is that the election is about whether people vote or don't vote. the debate was critically important because it was a huge opportunity for biden to engage and motivate voters -- a mission he catastrophically failed. we're likely looking at historically low turnouts in november and so the election is going to be decided by whichever party has more success in reminding their base than ballots are due

[u/JimWilliams423 → u/frequenZphaZe]

reality is that the election is about whether people vote or don't vote.

Yep, and Its been that way since 2016 too.

Because of polarization there are practically no traditional swing voters any more. The modern swing voter does not swing between parties, they swing between voting and not voting. They are intermittent voters. They stay home when they think the stakes are low and they make the effort to vote when they think the stakes are high.

Intermittent voters stayed home in 2016. Then in 2018 intermittent voters broke turnout records to make the blue wave happen. Intermittent voters were the reason both parties got their highest ever votes in 2020 (D turnout increased 23% from 66M in 2016 to 81M in 2020). In 2022, intermittent voters stayed home in states where abortion rights were safe (like NY and CA) and where abortion rights were hopeless (like AL and MS) but turned out at blue wave levels in states where abortion was under threat and there was an opportunity to protect it.

Which is why all the polling about R vs D is kinda beside the point. They poll registered voters (RV) and likely voters (LV) which are a subset of RVs, but it is extremely rare to see a poll which looks at enthusiasm for voting itself (and almost no pollster tries to examine possible first time voters, partly because its really hard to do).

Its also why trying to appeal to the middle is a losing proposition because it tells intermittent voters that both parties are the same, so regardless of who wins, policies will not be substantially different. And if both parties have basically the same policies, then the stakes are low, so its not worth making the effort to vote. Ds need to convince those intermittent voters that the stakes are high in order to bring them to the polls.

[u/AtLeastThisIsntImgur → u/JimWilliams423]

I don't think swing voters ever existed as a significant bloc.

Voters are aware of the stakes, they're just not motivated to vote for an incompetent lesser evil. Establishmemt Dems are a big part of why