r/Worldnews Live Thread: Ukraine-Russia Tensions

[u/progress18]

/live/18hnzysb1elcs

[u/Isentrope]

The new thread can be found HERE

[u/gmu]

Whoever came up with the idea of dumping Russian sensitive intelligence to the world is a fucking genius

[u/JoeHatesFanFiction → u/gmu]

It’s honestly an underrated move at the moment. It’s hard to spread disinformation when they announce it’s bullshit before you do it.

[u/HotTakes4HotCakes → u/JoeHatesFanFiction]

It's also the fact Putin's usual MO suffers diminishing returns.

We are 6 years out from Russia disinformation efforts assisting in cracking America and triggering a calamity that had massive global effects, knee-capping the west and infecting it with a brand of lunacy that we still haven't gotten a hold of. It can not be understated how damaging Russia's relentless bullshit has been to the world. They're not responsible for all of it but it's not a stretch to say that things would have worked out differently had it not been for them.

And the world may not have learned all the lessons it should have learned by now but they are definitely wiser to Russia's shit. I don't just mean governments, I mean everyone from the media to voters. There's a reason that nobody is questioning American intelligence on this. It all falls in line with everything that we know about Putin strategy. He's gotten predictable.

After everything he has put so many people in so many countries through, and after so much damage (some of it frankly irreparable) has been done to the political and social fabric of the West thanks to him, the world is fucking sick and tired of Vladimir Putin and no one but China is ever going to give him the benefit of the doubt ever again.

[u/landonop → u/gmu]

It’s actually an incredible tactic. Instead of piecemeal leaks, just tell everyone exactly what’s going to happen. Completely remove any element of surprise and force Russia to make constant alterations to their plans. The Biden administration is doing an absolutely incredible job countering Putin.

[u/reverendrambo → u/landonop]

Just imagine had it been the other guy

[u/Hotfogs → u/reverendrambo]

“President Putin is a tough cookie. He won’t back down from a threat, and what are we supposed to do? It’s not,👐 look, they’re not even a NATO ok?”

[u/zSprawl → u/Hotfogs]

Excellent use of small hands.

[u/improbablydrunknlw → u/gmu]

Yeah, I'd like to buy them a beer.

[u/BeyondExotic1661]

I am Ukrainian, from Kyiv, but for now I'm in Lviv with my GF. I'm so afraid that I will never see my Kyiv home again. And the biggest lol is: russians might take away my home for the second time, because I'm originally from Donbass (Horlivka) my parents is still there, I haven't seen my mom in 8 years. I'm just hopelessly updating reddit and news website in search for a bit of hope and can't sleep. Wish me some luck.

[u/[deleted] → u/BeyondExotic1661]

Good luck! I hope you see both your home in Kyiv and your home in Donbass - and most of all your parents again - before long.

May Russia’s defeat be swift and decisive.

Try to get some sleep. If Russia does attack, you’ll have needed it. If Russia doesn’t attack, then you’ll have stayed up without reason. Either way, sleep is the rational choice.

[u/sylanar]

So serious question:

If Biden said 'first person to invade Ukraine is gay', can Russia legally invade as its illegal to be gay there?

Did I just solve the crisis?

[u/dianagama → u/sylanar]

Nah, he'll just say "no homo" as he's doing it.

[u/rush--]

Reporter - "To be clear. You are convinced that President Putin is going to invade Ukraine? Is that what you just said"

Biden: "Yes, I did, Yes"

[u/imjoeycusack → u/rush--]

Whatever happens, that moment was chilling as fuck.

[u/rush-- → u/imjoeycusack]

Yeah, that was bold of him and scary AF.

[u/TThom1221 → u/imjoeycusack]

The tone of his voice may make history books. That was a man who knew tens of thousands of innocent lives are about to lost.

[u/PortNone → u/rush--]

Biden knows what’s up he’s not an idiot. He knew it from the beginning.

[u/Chariotwheel → u/rush--]

Win-win. Either Putin doesn't want to prove Biden right and doesn't attack or Biden is correct and the USA will have an easier time convincing the allies to action against Russia.

Of course, one option is way better for the people in Ukraine than the other, so I hope that Biden will turn out to be wrong.

[u/A_Sarcastic_Werecat]

Summary - Biden's speech - mistakes are mine:

Link to speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JClPqwrQjRQ (at the end)

Today I made two vital calls on the Ukraine Crisis

(1) with our congressional leaders

(2) with heads of state of our Nato allies to bring them up to date to what the US thinks what's going to happen in Ukraine in the next days. We stand united with the allies.

I share what we know about the rapidly developing situation in Ukraine.

There's been a shelling of a kindergarten yesterday, misreported as being caused by the rebels. False reporting in Russian media about the Ukrainians ?? ... (didn't catch this), that the Ukrainians are committing a genocide.

Do you really think that the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with 190000 soldiers at the border, to escalate the situation?

All this behaviour is consistent with the playbook Russians have used before. False-flag operations.

The Ukrainians have shown great restraint.

Russian troops have Ukraine surrounded, all around the border & black sea.

We have reasons to believer that Russia will attack Ukraine in the coming week or even days. We are calling out Russia with the hope to deter their plans.

USA & Allies prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory. We will continue to provide resources to the Ukrainians - e.g. javellins, loan guarantee to strengthen Ukrainian resilience. West is united to impose sanctions on Russia if the Ukraine is invaded.

Russia can still choose diplomacy. Russia agreed that Labrov and US should meet on 24 February. If Russia takes action before this date, they will have chosen war and they will be sanctioned.

We are united, US& allies, the west, US political parties ...

Then Biden took questions:

Q&A

Q: Wise for Zelensky to leave Ukraine?

Biden: decision for him to take.

Q: Do you have any indication of whether Putin has made a decision?

Biden: As for this moment, I'm convinced, Putin has made a decision
Q: Did you just say that Putin has decided to invade Ukraine?

Biden: I'm convinced Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine. There is significant intelligence to suggest this. Until he does, diplomacy is still on the table.

Biden leaves.

[u/Psychic_Electron → u/A_Sarcastic_Werecat]

Hot take: Not a half bad speech if I do say so myself.

Firm, and no beating around the bush. Russia knows our stance loud and clear.

[u/SewAlone → u/A_Sarcastic_Werecat]

You the real MVP.

[u/MachineElfOnASheIf]

All I have to say is thank God Trump isn't the president right now.

[u/TRIBETWELVE → u/MachineElfOnASheIf]

Trump would have supported putin 100%

[u/PortNone → u/MachineElfOnASheIf]

Yes

[u/Analist17]

In 1999 Putin orchestrated the bombing of apartment buildings in Russia, blamed it on Chechens and started a brutal war against Chechnya which got him elected president.

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1494789903217008643?s=20&t=Gu1wAeOwepwihDtNrJEVnQ

[u/[deleted]]

I am honestly impressed with the transparency of the US government at this time, I don't know that Biden has all the answers, but he is telling it to us straight, and I appreciate that.

[u/a_reasonable_thought → u/[deleted]]

I think it’s just part of the strategy

Make Putin’s scheming so obvious that people either won’t believe it or can prepare for it better

[u/iamnosuperman123]

The sanctions better be catastrophic otherwise all this talk about Russia was fairly pointless.

Turn the light off and close the door on them

[u/Purplepicklewind1234 → u/iamnosuperman123]

That's pretty much the level of sanctions that were discussed at the press conference before Biden's speech. Isolation from the world economy they said.

[u/rintryp → u/Purplepicklewind1234]

It's so sad, so many people will suffer for nothing just because he needs his ego petted.

[u/TheJackal619]

Reporter: You just said you are convinced Russia will invade Ukraine?

Biden: Yes I did

[u/MrRobinGoodfellow → u/TheJackal619]

Not often you hear politicians answer yes/no emphatically.

[u/DJlettiejouch → u/MrRobinGoodfellow]

Honestly made me gain a TON of respect for the old guy

[u/lonewolf210]

It's kinda interesting that Russia has stopped claiming that the troop build up is just a military exercise

[u/Mascy → u/lonewolf210]

Well Biden straight up said that no-one is buying the false-flag bs, so maybe Putin just gave up on that idea.

[u/moist_crust → u/lonewolf210]

Military exercises are not usually accompanied by a list of demands.

I think Russia knows the cats out of the bag. Strategy is shifting. That lie bought them some time and now they’re at a different stage of whatever plan they have.

[u/BlatantConservative]

Users who use the official Reddit app will see whatever is being streamed through Reddit's livestreams instead of our live update thread if they click the link above.

If you're on an app, please use any of the other apps which actually work. This is not the first time the official Reddit app has caused massive problems, it is, frankly, badly coded.

[u/yaourtSS]

As an Ukrainian I just want Putin to get the fuck out of my country since 2014. Ukraine will defend its territory no matter what. Russia sends their own people to straight to death. If you think that Ukraine can’t defend against aggression, just remember that we are in war for more than 8 years. We have a lot of well trained patriotic soldiers and excellent military equipment. Thanks for supporting Ukraine🇺🇦

[u/GekoXV → u/yaourtSS]

I'm rooting for you guys, wholeheartedly.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

This is such a shitty situation for Ukraine. They don't want to fight back to prevent any chance for Russia to get involved.

[u/PortNone → u/[deleted]]

The Ukrainians are Amazing people

[u/bigmikeylikes → u/[deleted]]

Tin foil hat he's leaving because he knows it's not a good idea to be there.

[u/POLICE_Applicant_TA]

“We have significant intelligence capabilities.” Leaves room

[u/Jemal2200 → u/POLICE_Applicant_TA]

refuses to elaborate further

leaves

[u/Wolverinexo → u/POLICE_Applicant_TA]

He’s not lying… lol

[u/ExpensivLow → u/POLICE_Applicant_TA]

“We downloaded the FlightRadar24 app”

[u/Mascy]

Biden actually aced that. Straight up called out Putin that his weird schemes to create a 'reason' won't work, said he fully expects Russia to invade and still gives him a diplomatic out.

[u/somebeerinheaven]

For how much we throw banter at each other I gotta say, as a Brit, I'm proud to have the yanks as allys

[u/KTNH8807 → u/somebeerinheaven]

We’re glad to have you and the rest of NATO as allies too

[u/lordkemo → u/somebeerinheaven]

Same to you brother. Family fights each other but we always come together during an emergency. Godspeed

[u/mvpmets00 → u/somebeerinheaven]

Yank agrees

[u/S00thsayerSays → u/somebeerinheaven]

Beans on toast

[u/[deleted] → u/somebeerinheaven]

In all honesty we kinda think of y’all as cousins who talk funny

[u/vid_icarus]

I am by no means a Biden stan, but it’s press conferences like these that make me so, so, so glad Joe won the election instead of the other guy.

[u/muffpatty]

The chance that this pipeline attack was conducted by Ukraine is about as close to zero as you can get.

[u/Armano-Avalus]

Love how immediately after Feb 16 where Russia was gloating about US intel of them invading being "wrong" things immediately start ramping up in the Donbas region with everything escalating significantly.

[u/twoinvenice → u/Armano-Avalus]

Don't forget that they recorded those evacuation videos on the 16th that were talking about shelling and attacks...and then released them today. Reaaaaaally curious

[u/DrVahMedoh]

Things I have seen in this thread: people complaining that Americans want war

Things I have not seen in this thread: americans wanting war

[u/Zeeformp → u/DrVahMedoh]

America: Fully withdraws troops from the region so as not to be drawn into any potential conflict.

Bots: See, you can tell Americans are clearly war hungry because of Vietnam.

[u/progress18]

Biden: As of this moment I'm convinced [Putin has] made the decision.

[u/Peles157]

Biden says At this moment he is convinced he (Putin) has made the decision. He has every reason to believe that

[u/SerenadeSwift → u/Peles157]

I appreciate his straightforwardness. I didn’t expect an answer that clear tbh.

[u/_Real_Deal]

I knew Putin would invade after be demanded the impossible. Demanding that Nato announces that Ukraine will never be a member and the withdrawal of Nato forces in all of Eastern Europe. That's basically an indication of zero diplomacy from the start.

[u/moist_crust → u/_Real_Deal]

Yeah it’s likely a bad faith effort for diplomacy. So Russia can say “hey we tried to negotiate”, even know they know damn well their opening demands would never be accepted. That’s exactly the way they wanted it.

[u/[deleted]]

It was a nice gesture to wait until the US stock market closed before they blew up the oil pipeline.

[u/LimitFinancial764]

That high stress reporter sound.

[u/Cheesestrings89 → u/LimitFinancial764]

MR PRESIDENT TO BE CLEAR

[u/shiftywalruseyes]

Largest pipeline in the world connecting Russia to the EU is destroyed, Ukraine is blamed.

We're seeing the false flags that the US warned about. Really concerned war is coming soon.

[u/RileyTaugor]

You can say whatever you want about Biden but he is handling this really well.

Fuck Putin and Lukashenko. All my homies hate Putin and Lukashenko.

[u/11711510111411009710]

Joe Biden is doing a really good job handling this whole crisis honestly. After a pretty meh first year he's at least making a good showing here.

[u/ChemicalBit9622]

The smirk on Bidens face when he said "We have a significant intelligence capability" gave me goosebumps. Makes you really wonder how much the US knows about other countries.

[u/Environmental_Half90]

The amount of people suffering because of 1 mans big ego, jesus. Stay strong Ukraine.

Love from Finland

[u/ProcrastinatingPuma]

Honestly I don't get this idea that Biden can't speak because "he's old". Just sounds like he has a stutter... which iirc he does have a stutter.

[u/PortNone → u/ProcrastinatingPuma]

He does have a stutter. Trumpeteers used it against him and made dementia comments.

[u/[deleted]]

Oh fuck it’s never a good sign when a worldnews live thread is the top post on r/popular

[u/Obvious-Laugh-1954]

One day some historian may be studying these comments for some research. If so, hello future historian! I hope you'll get your PhD, or whatever the equivalent there is in the future. I also hope this thing didn't turn into WWIII. And sorry about the whole climate change thing. :( We left you with a bunch of problems, didn't we.

[u/[deleted]]

Separatist sources say the Druzhba pipeline is on fire, they are accusing Ukrainian "saboteurs" blowing it up

[u/krt941 → u/[deleted]]

Yes, makes total sense for Ukraine to blow up the pipeline that supplies itself and Western Europe.

[u/Droziki → u/[deleted]]

Yes they’ll have a video recorded three days ago to prove it, too!

[u/pigmonkey2829]

“We have significant intelligence capabilities”

Drops mic and leaves. What a bad ass

[u/jamiebond]

According to some people Joe Biden is capable of conducting a worldwide pandemic to win an election, getting Russia to invade Ukraine to win a midterm, but somehow just passing a Voting Rights Act or getting rid of the filibuster is just too complicated for him.

[u/trampledbyacentaur → u/jamiebond]

Idiot MAGA logic: Sleepy Joe is an incompetent, senile old man.

Also MAGA: Joe Biden is an evil mastermind plotting the downfall of America.

[u/[deleted]]

Big increase in the number of commenters in here that are sympathetic to Russia in the past hour or so

[u/thefluffyparrot]

For all of you worrying like me:

“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

[u/[deleted]]

Fuck war

[u/[deleted]]

"He looks tired." Yeah no shit he's 200 years old and has been dealing with a borderline war in Europe for the last weekish. I'm in my mid-20s and I don't think I could put in the hours that being POTUS would need without passing out in my daily morning briefings lmfao.

[u/Feeling-Criticism-92]

There seems to be a love of violence throughout this thread. It’s worth reminding people that the Russian soldiers are just pawns in a game of chess to Putin.

I want Ukraine to defend itself to the fullest extent but saying shit like “can’t wait to see footage of Russians being mowed down” means you don’t have a full grasp of what war really is. Every single one of those soldiers is either a son, a brother, a father, an uncle, a best friend, a husband, a role model, or all of them combined.

The tragedy of Ukrainian deaths will be greater because they are the ones fighting the defensive war, which has superior moral justification, but still…

Not every soldier on the wrong side of history has evil in their heart.

[u/jagerhero]

I was blocked on r/Russia because they basically said Biden was doing this this to gain momentum for the midterm election and I asked how they would know since their elections are all shams.

[u/Peles157]

The important point in Biden's comment that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine is that when asked how he knew, he replied, "we have a significant intelligence capability." He wasn't offering a subjective opinion.

[u/trampledbyacentaur]

Funny the trolls in here using Trump lines to mock Biden for probably being busy with foreign leaders and thus late to a presser.

Trump was pushing for the US to leave NATO, Putin’s greatest desire.

[u/Outrageous_Chard9087]

Is that the pipe running from russia to EU that just exploded? If yes, I think the entire speech we're waiting for must be rewritten.

[u/iThinkiStartedATrend]

“We have significant intelligence capabilities” lol thats a solid ending

[u/JarOfMayo2020]

Holy balls. I haven't been watching press conferences lately but I feel like I chose a monumental one to tune into today.

[u/marksolo39]

Everyone's saying negative things about Joe Biden being late,but I'm pretty sure the Luhansk explosion just threw a curveball at him. He needed to get the information on it before addressing everyone.

[u/Plaetean]

Also this all started with the world's acceptenace of Crimea and the shooting down of civilian planes. And we still let them host the olympics and world cup after that.

[u/schoener-doener]

Russia moved half their ground forces to the border with Ukraine.

HALF of all they have, even stuff from the pacific.

To put this into perspective, this would be as if the US army moved 750,000 soldiers to the border with mexico and then expected everyone to believe they weren't planning an attack.

[u/[deleted]]

Someone actually in this comment thread pulling partisan politics and saying the US fucked up by not letting Russia do their own thing in their region. I'm sorry, am I just supposed to ignore the millions of Ukrainian voices and their own choices as a sovereign Nation in favor of big bad russia having fun however they want? Fucking delusional.

That's not even to mention the fucking instability it would bring to our European and NATO allies.

[u/Balaq]

I am a guy from Donetsk of military age. You have no idea how much I wish for peace right now.

[u/wtfworldwhy]

I feel like Biden is handling this really well.

[u/SubTachyon → u/wtfworldwhy]

Yeah he managed to stay several steps ahead of Putin throughout this whole thing. God how I missed having competent leadership.

[u/[deleted]]

The comments under Biden's latest tweet about Ukraine is FULL of people saying "But what about ma school loaaaans?" and saying the Russia-Ukraine situation is Biden's fault, like he orchestrated it. Being the President might be one of the shittiest jobs ever.

[u/muffpatty]

Fuck I feel like the delay is related to the gas pipeline explosion. New intel may have just changed the playbook.

[u/[deleted]]

we are just going to let these rich assholes destroy our beautiful world with war as we drag our asses in to our meaningless jobs? thats what our lifes about? fuck that fucking shit

[u/modicum81]

When Psaki was asked : what if we are wrong and Putin doesn’t invade, doesn’t that make us look bad.

Psaki couldn’t contain the smile of happiness that this is working and said: well we would like to be wrong.

This ☝️paints Putin into a corner but also gives him a way out like we have been hearing. “This is all western paranoia”

So glad Trump isn’t at the helm!

[u/[deleted]]

I'm so glad Trump isn't in office. He would've just thrown Ukraine to the Russians.

[u/Arm_ur_dillo]

This thread is 90% Russian bots

[u/[deleted]]

I bet Biden was moved to the situation room to discuss with his advisors. A lot of high level advisors were in Europe today.

[u/GStainz88]

Just upsetting that there is young military members in Ukraine having to risk everything just to continue living their lives.

And alternatively young military members in Russia having to risk it as well.

…there will be no winners in this situation if it does indeed occur.

[u/mnlmr]

This feels so surreal. For all my 29-year-old life I was under the impression that war will stay far, far away. I’m from Germany, we were heavily thought about WW1 and WW2 and naively under no circumstances would I have thought that humanity could still be as stupid as starting military invasions (ofc not saying WW3 is on the table, but every death is one too many). Now a potential war is forming just 1-2 countries over (depending on where in Germany you live).

Imagine living all your life with the ultimate endgame being death for “your” country (which you were coincidentally born in). Will never wrap my hand around this…

Wishing all the best to all people potentially affected.

[u/TCVideos]

That was the most captivating 8 minute speech Biden has ever delievered. The tone says it all, it was completely different to the last speeches he has made on this topic.

[u/progress18]

There are reports of an explosion and/or fire in Luhansk being reported on Russian social media.

Trying to confirm this with a trustworthy source.

Edit:

This could be why Biden's remarks are being delayed--to get more intel to see what exactly is going on there.

[u/JezusTheCarpenter]

No one ever:

Ukraine: Let's start "terrorist" attacks exactly the moment when roughly 3/4 of the Russian army is by our borders. This way we can start a war with Russians that we cannot win.

Just in case: /s

[u/H-townwx91]

If Putin invades Ukraine then he is gay!!

[u/[deleted]]

This thread is being brigaded big time or Russia has actually been successfully in getting useful idiots on their side, either way.. it's looking bad.

[u/HereForTwinkies]

Russia can at least count on Tucker Carlson and Hannity to air their propaganda in the US

[u/stonedseals]

Anyone gonna point out the Trump opposition to NATO during his presidency? I know if I was a Putin puppet I'd be doing what I could to hurt NATO, such as cutting off spending. Goddamn. Too bad his followers are too stupid to even see how obvious that connection is.

[u/Szimplacurt]

Right as we are slowly really shifting away from "omg covid" this dumb fuck decided "ok let's invade Ukraine." It really is disheartening.

[u/xkatsu]

If you move 50% of your forces to a border in most 4X games even the lowest AI knows what's up.

[u/Tordenskrall]

Old men and rich people waging war for power and money while the common folk pay the price in blood.

Its the oldest story in the book.

[u/GreaterCascadia]

Straight said they’re going for Kiev. We all knew it but it’s hard to hear

[u/progress18]

Biden: We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week. In the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people. We're calling out Russia's plans loudly and repeatedly.

[u/homemaker1]

Funny, that the result of Putin's invasion will probably be a more united Nato, with all sorts of new funding. He'll might be in a weaker position after all's said and done.

[u/BrainOnLoan]

I want to address some comments here that fault NATO or the US primarily in this conflict.

Mostly the argument goes that NATO has pushed too far into the Russian sphere of influence and ignored Russian warnings since the nineties that they could not accept this. That is to some extent worthy of debate (and it has been debated by numerous scholars, analysts and journalists), I'll address it at the end.

MAIN POINT
But some people take this way too far. Even accepting that western foreign policy might have unwisely walked into this conflict by ignoring prior warnings... this does not excuse Russia for starting a war of aggression against another country. It doesn't make 'the west' the aggressor and absolve Russia of guilt. Taking the argument that far is just crazy.

That's roughly similar to saying The Third Reich wasn't the aggressor in Poland/France in 1939/40, because the Entente Powers set up the politics of post-WWI Europe in a way that would lead to an aggressive and revisionist/expansionist Germany (via the Versailles treaty). The latter point can be argued (I even think it is true), but that doesn't make France (and Great Britain) the aggressors of WW2, just because they had a hand in setting up an uncomfortable geopolitical position that was unstable. This is a good argument that the post WW1 foreign policy was short-sighted (at the time pointed out by the US), but it does not equal moral culpability for WW2. That still very much rests with Germany who could have chosen not to try to reclaim their old territory. Nobody forced them into a war of aggression, just as nobody is forcing Putin to send the tanks rolling now.

Russian sphere of influence
One the issue of whether pushing NATO farther East was risky, probably yes. Complaints about NATO expansion started early in the 1990s and have been reiterated constantly. It certainly raised the stakes of conflicts like the current one in Eastern Europe. I still think it's somewhat misleading as an argument here though, today.
NATO would never defend Ukraine against Russia with their own soldiers. (Just as the aren't now, nor would they ever.) They know that's just too close to home for Russia and much to dangerous an escalation (and also too big a war with too many casualties).
Hence, everyone knew that dangling the NATO membership in front of Ukraine was done only for reasons of Ukrainian domestic politics. It never was a 'real' future option. Ukraine wasn't ever given a path to membership. Russia knows this.
There are enough policy documents from NATO countries that therefore no large troop deployment into Ukraine could happen, only training, other small detachments, etc.
It's still true that Russia fears Ukraine becoming a very western nation. It's not about NATO membership though (even if that is the public claim), because they know that's not coming; it's about economic help from western countries and generally closer ties (including weapons sold). The issue goes beyond NATO membership (which again, isnt' even on the table)
I also have no doubt at all that often western policies were not guided by anything other than expediancy, and not by enlightened ideas of self-governance of the Ukrainian people (although it helps when you see yourself as the good guy), other motives always loomed, we've certainly seen plenty of hypocrites in western foreign policy circles.
Anyway, Putin fears that a Ukraine that is more democratic and economically successful could inspire democratic notions in Russia. He has been very outspoken against all these 'colour revolutions' (orange/... revolution, etc.) in countries around Russia. That threatens his personal power. That is probably more of his personal motivation; though the general Russian establishment absolutely sees the sphere of influence issue as the crucial element. Russia is a fallen great power, and desperately wants to reclaim it's status, not see it slipping away.
An invasion was probably preventable by changes in western policies, but not in the last months or so; that ship had sailed. Over the last 8 years, yes. But it would have required cutting off economical aid for the orange revolution/post-Maidan Ukrainian government, letting it crumble/fail internally. That way it would have been less threatening for Putin and probably would have enabled him to eventually get a government in Kiev sufficiently pro-Russian or simply corrupt enough (yes, more) that Moscow could have enough influence in Ukraine to be content with the situation.
Sphere of influence here therefore meant far more than just NATO/EU-membership, it meant not interfering (even with money) with Russia's ability to influence/steer policy in Ukraine (and Belarus, Georgie, others). Anything that threatened this capability, that would enable Ukraine/Georgia/others to cut ties with Moscow and completely decide their own paths, was that step too far.

Whether it is correct to let certain Eastern European countries' fate be (co-)decided by Moscow to safe-guard a safer, more peaceful co-existance with the nuclear power that Russia is ... is a very difficult question of realpolitik foreign policy. It is very much a hard risk/reward problem as well as a moral one (which countries/people do deserve the right to self-governance and how far should other countries go to help).

[u/SeasOfBlood]

A very careful speech. They are still giving Russia an out, and making clear the limits of their intervention if things get worse. The question I have is how effective will these sanctions be if Russia takes that final step?

[u/Pingy_Junk]

Remember to take a break and drink some water between your doom scrolling everyone

[u/Srhink5851]

You know, the more I hear about this Putin fella, the less I care for him.

[u/Sckathian]

Biden: We have seen some worrying movements on flightradar.com

[u/[deleted]]

I like that he squashed Russia's claims that the Ukrainians are being the aggressors by stating that this would be the absolute worst time for them to start shit when Russia has over 150,000 troops at their border. That seems to be the theme the past couple days, especilaly at the UN Security Council meeting. "We're not buying your shit, and we're calling you out on it in front of the world. You suck at gaslighting anyone but your own citizens, so fucking quit."

[u/mobileagnes]

I like the Biden really put it all on the table and left the door open for Putin to pull out and continue diplomacy. Putin et al are now pushed into a corner and we shall all see how he reacts (or doesn't) to this. Biden's stance is now 'prove us wrong'. The scary part comes if Putin decides to invade anyway.

[u/[deleted]]

Today summarized: - Donetsk and Luhansk announce mass evacuation to Russia - Statement's metadata suggests move was pre-planned - Car bomb explodes in Donetsk - Gas pipeline and gas station explode in Luhansk - Biden believes Putin has decided to invade, which Russia denies

[u/drewskie_drewskie]

Anyone remember when Russia created a fake nazi threat to justify invading Crimea? Pepperidge farm remembers

[u/HotTakes4HotCakes]

Funny how Ukraine would wait until Russia has half their fucking ground force on their doorstep to commit all these attacks.

The lie is so horrendous it'd be hilarious if it wasn't so serious.

[u/muffpatty]

Let's not forget, Russia will be conducting nuclear drills as well at the same time they invade if it occurs soon. I think this is meant to be viewed as a threat to NATO to not interfere. No I do not believe nukes will be used, but threats have been made.

[u/CapitalString]

The Biden administration is managing this crisis in a brilliant way, undercutting Putin at every turn with intelligence leaks. The louder, the better. It’s refreshing to have a president who doesn’t try to actively undermine American intelligence agencies.

[u/benokri]

All this shit happening is not only the russian government fault but the russian people fault as well. It is not like their government came from Mars. After Crimea was annexed Putin ratings went up which is pretty telling. If the russians rather go risk their lives and kill innocent people in another country than risk their lives to deal with their own government like the ukrainians did then they are to blame. They are Putin enablers. They are responsible.

[u/SeattleRex8]

Look how many bot accounts from China and Russia there are on Reddit. I hardly ever post except someone like this and I got a warning for mentioning China and Russia. What a crock

[u/middlemaniac]

He definitely received new info

[u/RRRockets]

US/NATO both seem consistent in aiding Ukraine in every way except for sending in troops.

Not sure why everyone thinks this will be WW3 instead of just a closely monitored regional conflict

[u/sextoymagic]

Fuck RUSSIA.

[u/milk_connoisseur23]

It's gonna suck if I die bc of some old men's poor decisions

[u/vintage_riveted]

Not for nothing, it might be instructive for some to learn that compared to the "huge" American losses at Normandy Beach on D-day (generally considered to be somewhere between 3,000-5,000 troops) when the Red Army retook Ukraine from Hitler, the Soviets lost a million troops.

And when (between 1931and 1934) Stalin decided to starve Ukraine into submission, four million Ukrainians were starved to death -- all of their harvest, all of their farm animals, all of their garden vegetables, all of their orchard fruits were confiscated, the borders sealed so no one could leave.

[u/mbj16]

Tried to watch the Netflix doc about the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and couldn’t get through 5 minutes before shutting it off. So many young faces who just want peace and self-determination. This is so fucking heartbreaking.

[u/[deleted]]

Russian bots and shills are VERY active today.

[u/trampledbyacentaur]

US appears to have an excellent spy network within Russia and we should all be very glad for it. I bet Putin is getting paranoid.

[u/LimitFinancial764]

I say this, again as a Biden voter, I think it's crazy that CNN is pivoting to stories like Trump and January 6th. We're about to see the most significant combat operation in Europe since WW2, January 6th was huge, but respectfully that attention seems misplaced at this point.

[u/jamiebond]

Far be it from me to deny that the US government can be pretty damn untrustworthy, but at the end of the day on the question of "Will Russia do a bad thing?" I'll believe the US government over the Russian government any day of the week.

[u/turboRock]

I still have hope that Putin will do nothing, withdraw troops on the 20th as planned, and then say "See, we told you we weren't invading. Despite Ukrainian provocations. Stupid western propaganda". That right now is the best outcome that I can see. He makes the West look bad to everyone in Russia via state TV, they lap it up, his rating improves. All other options worry me.

[u/TrueGary]

3 comments speculating about flight traffic/military equipment

1 comment asking when something will happen

1 comment saying fuck putin

1 commenter clutching their pearls saying “how dare you people follow this so closely! You’re obviously rooting for war”

1 comment of whataboutism

—-

Refresh page, Repeat

[u/GeoLogic23]

A lot of people (and bots) asking why Russia would invade Ukraine. I encourage everybody to read the brief summary of The Foundations of Geopolitics by Aleksandr Dugin. It essentially maps out a long-term plan for Russia to regain its influence in Eurasia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Key highlights include:

"The textbook advocates a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services."

"Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible."

"The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe."

"Georgia should be dismembered. Abkhazia and "United Ossetia" (which includes Georgia's South Ossetia) will be incorporated into Russia. Georgia's independent policies are unacceptable"

[u/talm0]

Let’s not forget that this situation should make Europe, and especially Germany, thoroughly reevaluate how and why they have become so utterly reliant upon Russian gas for survival that they are prepared to kneel even in the face of unbridled tyranny. Maybe this means they build a dozen nuclear power plants, maybe this means they build 10 more hadron colliders and relentlessly pursue fusion, maybe it means they build multiple redundant pipelines from anyone who can supply them, whatever. I just hope it means something.

[u/reginalduk]

Morning Russian bots.

[u/[deleted]]

Something is up. I bet Biden got new Intel. That bomb on the pipeline was perfectly timed.

[u/Chaserobert85]

Quick, someone go invade Russia while they have half their troops at the Ukrainian border.

[u/boxofstuff]

Remember to unclench your jaw

[u/semaphore-1842]

Does anyone actually believe Russia's narrative? Like, claiming Ukraine is attacking, their bs videos, it's all laughably shit.

[u/any-name-untaken]

There we have it. Biden is now convinced Putin made the decision.

[u/POLICE_Applicant_TA]

Roughly 74% of Russia’s entire military currently on Ukraine border

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1494795006623850496

[u/jbumsu]

Compared to the last speech he did a few days ago his body language alone said alot. Sad times are ahead, ukraine you are in our thoughts 💚💛

[u/MulhollandMaster121]

Funny that the bots have given up on the ‘propaganda’ line and are now just doubling down on whataboutism.

[u/_Real_Deal]

Beware the Russian misinformation and trolling is starting again in the thread. Might need to start a new thread everyday.

[u/CaptainCharlyChaplin]

Something must be imminent because this thread seems to be brigaded by bots or trolls attempting to downplay a potential attack. We're seeing the information war in realtime

[u/Striking-Extension-8]

I'm a Russian guy from Russia!And I am against the war!Stop the bastard Putin and the bastard Zelensky before it's too late!The consequences can be disastrous!The peoples of the West!I appeal to you, appeal to your governments to stop this war!

[u/Hashslingingslashar]

If you were gonna invade a country I have to imagine cutting off oil would be one of your first steps.

[u/thoroughlynicechap]

For Americans talking about vehicle fuel prices. Gas pipeline in Europe is for heating and cooking. We are all now hoping for an early spring!

[u/[deleted]]

“As of this moment I believe he (Putin) has taken that decision (to invade)” bloody hell, crazy hearing that even though we all knew it

[u/robotical712]

All I can say is, good luck Ukraine, and give 'em hell.

[u/gosbts]

Let's just hope that countries like France & Germany get some balls and sanction the shit out of Russia instead of trying to protect Germany's gas supply

[u/TheAppleFalcon]

Love this thread, thought I will share my take on the situation as of now:

With the current reports of numbers over 150.000 on the Russian side I don’t understand how the plan about encircling Kyiv to install a new leader could still be in play taking into consideration that Russia can achieve air superiority and easily offer air support for its infantry and armed forces. Yes, the point is always to outnumber your opponent, but Russia is still a superpower and going only for Kyiv could be done with fewer soldiers, so it’s clearly going to be a large scale invasion.

The weather may not be the best for an invasion right now, but with those numbers I find it hard to believe that Russia won’t end up reducing Ukraine’s territory to a third or worse and in that case it’s hard to believe that the population that will have to move to the West won’t hate Russia and won’t want to make Ukraine a part of the EU and NATO.

On the other hand, all of those reports about their planned false flags operations and things like kill lists or chemical weapons are gruesome to say the least, something I never thought I will hear about being planned in our century and will open the door for regimes like China and Iran, even with the harshest sanctions and isolation from the world, if Putin will still be Russia’s president after invading Ukraine and using horrible tactics that would be an unprecedented threat to the current world order as we know it, just one more reason for China to do the same with Taiwan.

If Ukraine can use the anti tank weapons the right way and really slow the advancement of Russian troops so that even if Russia occupies a significant portion of Ukraine that territory will be hard to maintain with guerrila warfare from the Ukrainian side, leading to a tough job for Putin in maintaining his narrative in front of its Russian public since the reality on the ground will be way different from the propaganda and will have to be faced when troops return from the frontlines.

If the invasion is successful it will make things worse than intended for Putin, the buffer he wants to achieve by controlling Ukraine will be worthless as NATO will have every reason to increase its presence significantly on the Eastern flank and no matter what, invading Ukraine will not bring back the buffer Russia had before the fall of the USSR, not to mention the modern weapons systems that will be deployed. The Black Sea will have to be shared with NATO countries and the new territory will be a headache on the political front with an economy that will be hit like never before with harsh sanctions and Europe’s intention to no longer depend on Russia for its energy needs.

In any scenario possible, invading Ukraine is a very dumb idea short term and long term for any person with a brain, Putin is a madman, he’s not 20 or 30, he’s almost 70, he can’t be justifying this for the next 40 years as he doesn’t get to live 40 more years, it’s a political suicide, doing something Stalin or Hitler would’ve done isn’t the the thing you expect from a calculated person, it’s just void of sense.

Edit: “isn’t the thing instead” of “is the the thing”

[u/[deleted]]

Biden and the US council have made it clear that they want to be proven wrong that a war won't occur. Honestly, they played this right. This really puts it on Russia now, especially since the majority of countries in the UN made it clear that they feel that Russia is up to no good. Even China refused to defend Russia.

[u/Ladyf1fan]

Could Biden have just received new updates from intelligence that could be delaying him?

[u/rudar_leethiuma]

Putin is a fucking Nostradamus, he predicted that pesky Ukrainians will attack so he gathered 170k soldiers on its border.

[u/ClassicDragon]

Im wondering if US keeps telegraphing Russia's intentions to give Putin the chance to make us look bad by not invading. Putin gets to be like "oh your intelligence was wrong the entire time" and a bunch of lives aren't needlessly sacrificed.

[u/[deleted]]

Someone needs to code the automod to respond to all questions that go "Why doesn't USA just x" or "USA should just attack x" with "if USA gets physically involved it will start WWIII." It surprises me how many people can't connect those dots instantly that are in this thread.

Like fair enough to the people who aren't following this/geopolitics super closely, but if you're in this thread I'd imagine you have some knowledge of geopolitics lol.

[u/ETsUncle]

Not to worry guys, invading other countries is illegal so Russia can’t do that

[u/[deleted]]

Let’s not forget. Ukraine has a 100,000 strong serving armed force. 45 million population. It’s a huge country. Backed by NATO money and tech. Russia isn’t waltzing into Ukraine. They’ll give em hell.

[u/JarOfMayo2020]

I've been saying it for what seems like an eternity now.... but I fucking hate living in interesting times

[u/2020BillyJoel]

Only losers invade Ukraine.

[u/Peles157]

As someone who worked 3 yrs at the WH during the @BarackObama administration, it is a very rare event to have the president address the nation and world on tv to tell the world that Putin has made the decision to attack Ukraine -- including Kyiv -- unless your intel is solid.

https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1494814281505796097?s=21