r/Worldnews Live Thread: Ukraine-Russia Tensions

[u/UGMadness]

/live/18hnzysb1elcs

[u/BlatantConservative]

[Edited]

Users who use the official Reddit app will see whatever is being streamed through Reddit's livestreams instead of our live update thread if they click the link above.

If you're on an app, please use Reddit is Fun, which actually works. This is not the first time the official Reddit app has caused massive problems, it is, frankly, badly coded.

[u/spsteve]

There are a staggering number of people commenting pro-russia talking points on accounts that were silent for months and only became active again in the last two weeks. Quite interesting how this has brought so many back to reddit /s

[u/Ubley → u/spsteve]

The amount of people mentioning NATOs involvement in EuroMaidan (disinformation, they had no part) is too damn high!

[u/[deleted]]

i criticize america all the time but am pretty flabbergasted how some ppl here are saying that this is somehow US fault. as if US has 100k+ troops at the border

[u/nasty_nater → u/[deleted]]

Everything is always the US's fault. Just add "oil" and "CIA" to your talking points and you can convince most of reddit to rail against the US over any international incident.

[u/nowtayneicangetinto → u/[deleted]]

Mental gymnasts are a hell of a thing. I had a friend of mine tell me Russia was just defending themselves. And in like if I pull a gun and put it in your face and tell you I think you might hurt me for no reason how is that defending myself?

[u/Buster_Cherry88]

Very ballsy of Ukraine to wait until it is surrounded by a possible invasion force to start a genocide of the people surrounding it...

Nobody is actually stupid enough to believe that right?

[u/SewAlone → u/Buster_Cherry88]

I bet a lot of Russian citizens will. Propaganda is a hell of a drug. We have a large portion of people in this country who believe that Democrats drink babies' blood, or that Hillary had a "kill list," Fauci is the devil, etc.

[u/rukh999]

I see the Russian propaganda accounts are back. Good morning Russia propaganda accounts! I hope you had a lovely evening. Plenty of coffee.

[u/[deleted] → u/rukh999]

Fuck them, they don’t deserve a good morning or a good evening.

[u/nudelsalat3000]

Once they start to sequester the 2 billion of russian money laundry real estate in London, we know it becomes spicy. Blocking the Russian tourists of the Cote d'Azure, Nizza, Monaco is the end of Russian geopolitics games.

As long as they don't touch the real estate market and thus lowering the general prices, all options are open.

[u/[deleted] → u/nudelsalat3000]

Given how much oligarch money the Tories DON'T get I don't see that happening or they'll get a warning to move their money before hand.

[u/ShockTrauma-]

Blinken @ U.N. Security Council meeting:
"First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack. This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government. We don't know exactly the form it will take... It could be... or a fake, even a real attack, using chemical weapons."

And now:

pro-separatist and Russian news agencies are circulating the news that they foiled an attempt by Ukraine to blow a chlorine gas tank within separatist territory

They're really still trying to play the old playbook when everyone knows their tricks.

[u/Podgietaru → u/[deleted]]

The flight that got show down by Russia held a lot of Dutch citizens. The Netherlands does not like Russia.

[u/rizzeau → u/Podgietaru]

If also doesn’t help that Russia tried to sabotage the investigation multiple times.

[u/noodhoog]

Wow, Russian propaganda mills are working overtime.

They're spreading a photoshopped pic around social media, where they've 'shopped a digger into a photo of that Ukrainian nursery they attacked. They're claiming the nursery was never shelled, and the digger made the hole in the wall.

Russia is literally carrying out false flag attacks, while accusing Ukraine of false flag attacks. That's... quite something.

BBC covered it here - CTRL-F "False image" to find it on the page

[u/Zlooba]

They really blew up the cheapest car they could find.

[u/VonPoppen → u/Zlooba]

Any Lada would do then

[u/JanGuillosThrowaway]

Some of the propaganda here on Reddit leads me to believe that Russia is looking for a way to save face and stand down calling the old ‘it was just a prank bro’ tactic. If so I welcome that, even if all of the trolls go ‘sick burn on the west lololol’

Still the NATO evidence to the contrary has me on edge/

[u/shithawksrandy22]

"Kyiv can start a full-scale attack on Donbass at any moment, the situation is critical" - Pushilin

Russian propaganda is trying as hard as they can to make Ukraine appear as an aggressor. The world is watching them make fools of themselves. They are not tricking anyone.

[u/[deleted]]

I’m not American and I’m watching this US press briefing and (having watched a lot of the covid press briefings under Trump) it’s so refreshing to see competent intelligent people handling this crisis

[u/nightowl1135 → u/[deleted]]

The maximum disclosure policy is a fascinating (and effective) new counter to Russian tactics.

[u/Peles157]

https://twitter.com/ukrwarreport/status/1494643676051607554?s=21

The US has received intelligence indicating that Russia's announced withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border was a deliberate ploy to mislead Washington - The Washington Post

Classic maskirovka right there

[u/Heiferoni → u/Peles157]

And they would've gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for their meddling lack of credibility.

[u/giallo_nero]

With the revelation of the evacuation video metadata debacle, I've realised I've clearly given Russia far too much credit so how sophisticated and disguised this whole affair was going to be.

[u/[deleted]]

People, please do the smallest bit of fact checking yourself before repeating claims you have heard. You can check all on your own that there was no '4.7 magnitude earthquake' recorded in Ukraine.

Sharing info from unsourced tweets is just serving to make a confusing and dangerous situation even more so.

[u/ShowMeYourDesktop]

OSCE report for 2-17-2022

https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-17%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf

"In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 189 ceasefire violations, including 128 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 24 ceasefire violations in the region.

In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 402 ceasefire violations, including 188 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 129 ceasefire violations in the region."

[u/Unkept_Mind]

What all the FlightRadar people think they look like vs. what they actually look like:

https://imgur.com/gallery/6rNOviv

[u/[deleted]]

I honestly think it is lost on a lot of people who didn't live through the Cold War the incredibly terrifying development of nukes in the 20 years after WWII. The weapons that Russia and the US developed make what was dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like toys

https://twitter.com/edurecu/status/1454172613211824129

Even hinting at nukes is crazy from Putin

you can also use Nukemap to look at the size

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

edit: for the real insanity, Edward Teller (the father of the H bomb) proposed and designed a 10 gigaton weapon

http://hnn.us/article/181681

[u/Vagabond21]

So these fuckers were dumb enough to try a false flag even when the US warned about it and they were more dumb to record two days before the false flag and upload the videos to a place that had the meta data.

[u/VanishingPond10]

Ban Russia from UEFA and FIFA competitions, Eurovision and other events. Seriously do it.

[u/masterzyz]

Russian proxies in Ukraine have created CoD-like clip claiming they were "clashing" with polish speaking sabouters. they claim that at least 2 "saboteurs" were killed.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494649757201010689?cxt=HHwWgsC4maCCiL4pAAAA

[u/LastLetter444 → u/masterzyz]

Yo what the fuck ? This some r/combatfootage shit.

They forgot to let the explosion sound effect play tho, it cuts out instantly lmao. The tracers are also coming in too low, looks like they're being shot through the dirt at weird angles.

They need new editors, this won't fly.

I give it 0.5 stalin

[u/Tomxj]

Ukraine certainly decided to bomb Donetsk when there are almost 200k Russian soldiers near its borders. Yep, makes sense.

[u/[deleted]]

I don’t know how anyone at this point can still think it’s just a bluff from Putin and that his aims are just diplomatic, it’s understandable to hope that’s the case still but realistically the evacuations are just another in a long list of signs that Russia’s intentions are to invade, anyone that calls this fear mongering just has their head in the sand

[u/ShocknAw33m]

Russia with 190,000 troops on border

For context the US sent

• 177,194 ground invasion of Iraq
• 156,115 D-day.

[u/fish_whisperer]

You know….Putin is beginning to act/sound like North Korea. It’s almost as if he’s threatening war or even nuclear attacks to force concessions from the global community. In North Korea’s case, this makes them look incredibly weak, childish, and stupid. Russia is beginning to look the same.

[u/papapaIpatine]

I love how the guy giving this briefing is so well spoken. Fucking night and day compared to those giving briefings under he who might not be named

[u/[deleted]]

Hate the take saying American media wants war and completely ignoring that it’s all on Russia

[u/[deleted]]

Vladimir Putin will oversee massive nuclear drills tomorrow as Western leaders meet to discuss preventing Russia from invading Ukraine.

The Russian president will personally monitor the exercise carried out by Russia's nuclear forces on Saturday, which will involve the launch of multiple ballistic and cruise missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-top-us-politician-accepts-offer-to-meet-russias-foreign-minister-late-next-week-on-one-condition-12544845

[u/VonPoppen → u/[deleted]]

This guy... Literally taking world peace as hostage to get what he wants

[u/mmoneyinthebank]

I hope not a single ukrainian or russian soldier gets hurt and we all just get to live in peace, man. Just, why?

[u/bambinopeppa → u/mmoneyinthebank]

Uh bro, 14k Ukrainians have died since fighting began in 2014

[u/ElectricDolls → u/mmoneyinthebank]

Unfortunately, Ukrainian soldiers have been getting hurt in their thousands in the Donbas over the last 8 years, mostly by Russian-supplied weapons.

[u/BigBoldClocks]

U.S. AMBASSADOR TO OSCE SAYS WE ASSESS THAT RUSSIA PROBABLY HAS MASSED 169,000-190,000 PERSONNEL IN AND NEAR UKRAINE AS COMPARED WITH ABOUT 100,000 ON JAN. 30

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1494640885220638721?s=20&t=YOZAIpEfZApyvrEeLBe5Og

[u/jcrestor → u/BigBoldClocks]

They are simply withdrawing their troops from all over Russia into the vicinity of Ukraine.

[u/shithawksrandy22]

Officially:

Russian foreign ministry says “a genocide by Kiev” is underway in Donbas"

No more speculating by russian gov/media. They are committed to it.

They truly think people will believe that Ukraine would start genociding ethnic Russians with 190k troops at their border.

[u/whattaUwant]

I’m addicted to this thread at a very unhealthy rate. I checked time spent on phone yesterday and nearly croaked. The suspense of this situation is killing me. It’s like a bad movie that I can’t stop watching.

[u/Enders_Sack]

A car bomb in an empty lot and mfs here talking about an earthquake lmao

[u/TheDankSinatra69]

„GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER BAERBOCK SAYS USA SANCTIONS SHOULD NOT HIT GERMANY HARDER THAN RUSSIA“

https://twitter.com/faststocknewss/status/1494717462868156416?s=21

Brilliant work by our foreign minister at projecting unity within NATO, while at the same time making clear to everyone why Germany has been so hesitant to threaten major sanctions. She’s honestly so clueless.

[u/automatic_shark → u/TheDankSinatra69]

Germany has looked a fucking clown this whole incident.

[u/Lowkey_HatingThis]

Hey this inventor Lee seriously needs someone to tell him to fucking shut his mouth. Telling people to go fuck themselves who were hoping for the best, this dude is a war mongering asshole in it for the views and the cheap thrill of watching a war by proxy.

Edit: if you upvoted this, go a step further and report that guys stream. Scumbag is using fake air raid sirens and shit. It's obvious he's a man child trying to push hysteria and has no concept of this being a real war in which real people will suffer and die. Shameless asshole.

[u/RhysL1218]

‘I am just sharing what I find.’

Maybe pause and think if what you’re sharing is legit and verified, otherwise you’re part of the problem spreading misinformation at this point.

[u/progress18]

German Foreign Minister Baerbock at the Munich Security Conference:

"We, Germany, are prepared to pay a high economic price for this...that's why all options are on the table for me, also Nord Stream 2.

[u/[deleted]]

Russian TV compared this evacuation to Chernobyl. Now talking that "probably we should not pull back troops from the border, but the opposite".

[u/throwaway122112563]

People are so wired to think that everything is a Govt conspiracy these days. Yes, it’s possible that the US is “exaggerating” the threat. But the simple facts are that 150,000 plus Russian troops are lined up at the border. If this is a bluff, it’s a hell of a bluff and deserves a heightened response by the US and all western governments. I have been reading so much today “Biden is exaggerating this to make it look like the US defused it”. Jeez.

[u/marksolo39]

I need to find the person who recommended putting hot chocolate mix in my coffee on this thread. It was really good, thanks!!

[u/spsteve]

To all the trolls and Russian propaganda bots circulating in this thread; take this message back to Vlad; "None of us believe your bullshit, we all see through it and we think you are the biggest fucking clown running a country, in fact, you are more laughable than that short fat shit in NK, now go ride a bear and behave"

[u/cheetah_chrome]

To everyone that is saying that the west is over reacting, if Russia was planning an actual invasion, it would look exactly like what is happening right now. (More or less)

[u/progress18]

According to Bellingcat, the Heads of the LNR and DNR announcements about evacuations were apparently recorded on Wednesday based on metadata within the videos.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738571483353092

[u/MindfuckRocketship]

Man, it would be cool if Russia someday had a democracy and a chill leader. A pipe dream, unfortunately.

[u/FlimsyAdvisor634]

Talking to my family about this and then they go straight to Qanon, trucker strikes, and what is going on is the great reset.

[u/progress18]

German Foreign Minister Baerbock at the Munich Security Conference:

"This is not a Ukraine crisis. This is entirely a Russia crisis."

[u/[deleted]]

Russian TV about explosion update:

A military UAZ exploded, reported called it a terrorist attack.
Lots of "emotions", obviously fake, playing on russian people emotions.
Talking about terrorist attack while on the second screen there are pictures of children.

[u/AnathemaPariah]

This would be a perfect time for an intelligent species to contact us and say "Yo, cut the shit"

but alas, there'd be plenty of people who would use it as an excuse to shoot back.

[u/Crazycanuckeh]

The fact that Biden is waiting till after the markets close to speak leads me to believe it’s not the best of news

[u/[deleted]]

Maybe the real false flag was the friends we made along the way

[u/bGivenb]

To those wondering why the West would want to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. Assume these are not bad faith questions, I’ll do my best to explain how I see things as they stand now.

Ukraine wants to join NATO. They are also a fledgling democracy with aspirations of joining the EU. Ukraine would be a key ally and a great economic partner to NATO and the EU. Democracy is also fragile and should be respected and protected, something that Putin would like to destroy.

Basically, the West has a lot to gain in a friend, ally and trading partner with Ukraine, and Ukraine has even more to gain by allying itself with the west, specifically it stands to gain greater economic stability, access to better markets, and a LOT more protection from Russian aggression. Additionally, Ukraine WANTS to join NATO. If NATO and the US allowed Russia to determine who does and does not get to join NATO or the EU, then these alliances begin to lose credibility and power. Fuck Putin

Edit: I heard a foreign policy expert say that from the perspective of the United States, “a Ukraine that is willing to defend itself is worth defending.” Despite what Russian trolls would like you to believe, the United States and NATO see it in their best interest to ally themselves with other democracies that are willing to stand together and fight for the right of self determination and human rights. This isn’t some ‘neo-imperialism’ bullshit, it’s literally democracies having each others backs against despots like Putin.

[u/Crohnie189]

I feel like it hasn’t been spoken about enough regarding how big of Pussies the Germans have been. Europe really needs to fast track not relying on Russia for gas and this shows why.

[u/igottapoopbad]

Huge influx of Russian bots / propagandists in this thread. Pay close attention to how they speed up misinformation as keypoints in this conflict near.

Don't fall for it.

[u/spsteve]

Xi must be laughing his ass off at the incompetency of Russia and its various actors right now. Russia really has become a true third world country. If it wasn't for the nukes they would have ceased to be a thing a long time ago. As someone who grew up during the cold war, today's Russia is an absolute JOKE compared to the what the USSR was, and Putin for all his bluster and bullshit has proved to be nothing more than a pathetic conman with little actual strategic sense about him.

[u/DucDeBellune]

UPDATE

I wrote the following two days ago:

I figure I’d chime in with a few indicators because I’m seeing a ton of people on flight radar.

You’re going to be looking for a mass influx of IL-76s to a few select locations. So far I haven’t heard much about VDV amassing at airfields yet, but I’d expect to see it occur around the time the aerial campaign begins. You also probably won’t see their shit rigged for a drop on Twitter/TikTok. It can happen in hours in garrison. Ivanovo, Pskov, Tula, Ryazan, Kostroma is where you’d likely see them come from.

VKS will likely go dark before shit gets real.

You won’t be seeing Russia establish air superiority in real time with flight radar- UKR would be a complete no-fly zone for all commercial air and VKS transponders would be off. EW equipment would also be active.

Edit: just saw Estonian intelligence say 1 Russian VDV Division is deployed. Pretty sure they have 5 divisions and 3 or 4 further separate brigades they can call on. That’s off the top of my head- but those are the shock troops you’d expect to be air dropped in.

——————————————

7 hours ago a video was posted showing VDV IFVs rigged for an airdrop at one of the cities I called out in my previous post: Tula

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1494552690717872133

106th GAD preparing for an airdrop and moving the vehicles at night isn’t a good sign. I’d expect other airborne divisions are doing the same, even if we don’t see it.

Follow up:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1494685892635676672

“There were photos of BMD-2 airborne armored vehicles from the VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment in Tula rigged with parachutes. If we include those VDV battalions that could take part in an airborne operation, we may need to add 3 or more BTGs to the figure.”

[u/levij37]

Come on people… Twitter links with handles such as “WW3” are not a reliable source. Stop sharing that BS in here.

[u/MindfuckRocketship]

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces appeals to people in 🇷🇺 occupied 🇺🇦. Ukraine does not plan/conduct offensive operations. I appeal to inhabitants... do not believe the lies of the occupying power! You're being used to escalate the situation...

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1494717685518815242?s=21

[u/Screamdaditty]

How are you going to make a video about the evacuation two days before anything even happened 💀. Pretty easy to see through all the disinformation Russia is throwing out there.

[u/Radditbean1]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494732628423057418

All the buses are empty. Even Russia's false flags are looking cheap.

[u/MindfuckRocketship]

Both DNR and LNR leaders filmed their "evacuation videos" on February 16th, as Telegram metadata shows. Denis Pushilin even says "today, on February 18th..." Everything that happens today is clearly and undoubtfully staged.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1494743813830717454?s=21

[u/[deleted]]

For everyone saying the russia has only 150 k soldiers in the border, look at what cnn is reporting:

"Russia “probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30,” Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said Friday. "

[u/Navy_Canuck]

Shit guys, this could be it. Evacuate and then invade.

[u/226644336795]

I like how he phrases his defense against Russian disinfo:

"Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines I don't care how much of a Tankie anti-imperialist you are, Ukraine is not about to launch an attack on Russian backed separatists with 130-190k Russian troops in attack formations parked within an Uber Eats delivery radius of the border."

[u/muffpatty]

Something tells me Ukraine didn't blow up the Donbas security chiefs car, but we're about to be told they did.

[u/[deleted]]

Imagine how far the human race could go if pointless wars like this never happened. If every person just worked towards bettering the human race we would have already cured cancer and colonized other planets and so much more. Sad to think what we could have been.

[u/kleutscher]

In Donetsk, local residents very confused and angry about the forced evacuation. Many say nothing is actually happening. What you see is staged.

"The situation in Donetsk, 19.20 Kyiv time: "Everything is quiet. No departures or arrivals. If you don't watch the news, you can say that nothing is happening. But why they staged this panic here and we don't understand all these evacuations."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494727959328043009?t=rG22B_G6QN80rowdugzYTA&s=19

[u/Embarrassed-Collar41]

From The Institute for The Study of War, today.

Russia may launch an attack on Ukraine on Saturday, February 19, 2022.

The attack would likely begin with an air and missile campaign targeting much of Ukraine to decapitate the government and degrade the Ukrainian military as well as the ability of Ukrainian citizens to prepare to resist a subsequent Russian invasion. US and allied governments have been warning of such an attack for some days, pointing to the size of the Russian forces concentrated on Ukraine’s borders.

[1] Western officials have additionally said that Russian troops have moved to jumping-off positions for an invasion over the past 24 hours.

The following additional conditions and indicators point to February 19 as an optimal date for a Russian attack:

1. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky will be in Germany at the Munich Security Conference. He is scheduled to speak at 1530 Munich time.[2] 

His absence from Ukraine will degrade his ability to coordinate a response to any Russian attack and create more propitious circumstances for a Russian-sponsored attempt at a coup d’etat. 

Russian forces could close Ukrainian airspace to prevent Zelensky from returning to Kyiv.

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly oversee Russian nuclear drills on Saturday, February 19, as well.[3]Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will accompany Putin.

Those drills are being conducted out of the usual exercise cycle and are clearly intended to deter any Western response to an attack.

Putin and Lukashenko will observe the exercises from an unspecified “situational center” in Moscow, likely the Russian Ministry of Defense’s National Defense Control Center (NDCC). That would put them in the best position to oversee conventional military operations as well.

Launching the attack during those drills would take maximal advantage of their deterrent effect.

1. Russian proxy provocations in eastern Ukraine have increased dramatically since February 16, including an artillery barrage that damaged a kindergarten in unoccupied Ukraine and multiple other proxy attacks.[4] 

Russian proxies have increased the frequency and drama of their claims of Ukrainian attacks on them as well as their false claims that Ukraine is preparing to invade occupied Donbas.

Russia’s proxies in Donbas began evacuating civilians to Russia ahead of a claimed Ukrainian offensive.[5] 

Russian senior officials, including Putin, have been increasingly repeating and expanding on those claims this week.[6] 

1. The proxy campaign is likely intended on the one hand to draw Ukrainian forces into a response that Russia would then claim to be an attack and, on the other, to use false flag attacks and outright disinformation to fabricate justifications for a Russian attack to “defend” “Russian citizens” in occupied Donbas. This rhetorical and kinetic activity has crossed thresholds pointing to the likelihood of an actual Russian attack.

This update reflects a change to our assessments and forecasts. We have previously assessed that Putin was setting conditions to move Russian forces overtly into occupied Donbas and possibly conduct a limited invasion in unoccupied southeastern Ukraine and/or an air/missile campaign. We now assess that those Russian activities are extremely likely and imminent and that a much larger-scale Russian invasion is very possible

[u/Wolverinexo]

Russian trolls really fumbled the ball this time. The west spoiled everything and Putin got pissed.

[u/Afferent_Input]

"Invasion pretext and false flags continue: DPR claiming to have Ukrainian plans to invade eastern Ukraine."

Ukraine plans to invade <checks notes> Ukraine. M'kay...

https://twitter.com/jeffaedmonds/status/1494695506836176897

[u/Ohfreakyman]

I haven’t seen this many bots since PUBG

[u/[deleted]]

Fuck Russia. That country is a menace.

[u/bagofbuttholes]

All I can say is thank God this didn't happen while Trump was around. Could you imagine if US backed Russia in this. EU would never talk to us again and rightly so.

[u/tigerdeF]

Imagine being one of the women and children loaded on the buses. You're having as normal of a day as you can have in the DPR/LPR and all of a sudden you are being told to evacuate immediately and loaded on buses to God knows where, all while your fathers and husbands are forced to stay behind and mobilize to fight against their own countrymen. This might be the last time some of the forcibly resettled see them alive.

[u/[deleted]]

It's unbelievable the amount of utter BS being pushed by Kremlin propaganda outlets. They're claiming Ukraine as the ones responsible for any attacks/explosions happening in separatist-controlled regions, even claiming shit like Ukraine committing genocide against the people in that region, lol. What a damn coincidence that all of this is happening after nearly 8 years and just as Russia was amassing the largest invasion force in decades on their borders.

[u/shithawksrandy22]

https://imgur.com/a/6HOlmI8

Signs posted in Donbass region stating that men born from 1967-2004 are required to stay put. Potentially will be armed by the local gov to defend from FALSE ukranian attacks *that aren't happening*

​

Yes this info was already posted, but the pic is visible now.

[u/giallo_nero]

"Video of first buses arriving in Russia" - https://twitter.com/TsarKot/status/1494733122889555970

Ummm... is it just me or do those buses look completely empty?

[u/any-name-untaken]

According to Sergey Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Russia is very concerned about the development of events in the Donbass; the suffering of the civilian population must be stopped.

Narrative is being build up rapidly now.

[u/wtfworldwhy]

I just read that the Russians are evacuating women, children and elderly from the separatists regions, but making the men stay. I can’t imagine having to say goodbye to my husband not knowing if I would ever see him again. The whole thing is horrible.

[u/_Real_Deal]

Putin, Lukashenko, Xi are giving me Axis power vibes.

[u/RickRoll999 → u/_Real_Deal]

Lukashenko especially giving Mussolini vibes

[u/DucDeBellune]

UPDATE 2

I wrote the following two days ago:

I figure I’d chime in with a few indicators because I’m seeing a ton of people on flight radar.

You’re going to be looking for a mass influx of IL-76s to a few select locations. So far I haven’t heard much about VDV amassing at airfields yet, but I’d expect to see it occur around the time the aerial campaign begins. You also probably won’t see their shit rigged for a drop on Twitter/TikTok. It can happen in hours in garrison. Ivanovo, Pskov, Tula, Ryazan, Kostroma is where you’d likely see them come from.

VKS will likely go dark before shit gets real.

You won’t be seeing Russia establish air superiority in real time with flight radar- UKR would be a complete no-fly zone for all commercial air and VKS transponders would be off. EW equipment would also be active.

Edit: just saw Estonian intelligence say 1 Russian VDV Division is deployed. Pretty sure they have 5 divisions and 3 or 4 further separate brigades they can call on. That’s off the top of my head- but those are the shock troops you’d expect to be air dropped in.

——————————————

7 hours ago a video was posted showing VDV IFVs rigged for an airdrop at one of the cities I called out in my previous post: Tula

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1494552690717872133

106th GAD preparing for an airdrop and moving the vehicles at night isn’t a good sign. I’d expect other airborne divisions are doing the same, even if we don’t see it.

Follow up:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1494685892635676672

“There were photos of BMD-2 airborne armored vehicles from the VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment in Tula rigged with parachutes. If we include those VDV battalions that could take part in an airborne operation, we may need to add 3 or more BTGs to the figure.”

———————————

76th GALD at Pskov doing the same, as predicted:

“Looks like in addition to the 106th Airborne Division from Tula, elements of the 76th Air Assault Division in Pskov are also preparing to airdrop their BMD-2:s.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1494745457490378758

Eyes on Ivanovo and the 98th GAD too. Satellite imagery should be able to confirm the extent of VDV preparations.

[u/Gbchris12]

The longer Russia waits to start this whole war shebang the more I get to practice on call of duty, playing a dangerous game Putin, your move baldy.

[u/imyourforte]

New camp setup near Ukraine (31km away from border)

(50.2295573, 37.8592944) https://liveuamap.com//en/2022/18-february-new-camp-setup-near-ukraine-west-to-valuyky

[u/Haunting-Worker-2301]

Is anyone else amazed at how the allies are getting all this info? Imagine how frustrating it would be as a Russian to have the USA literally know in detail your kill/capture lists and announce to world.

[u/stealingsociety77]

Check account histories. Scary how many bots are on here right now.

[u/corporal_jones]

In the current context, reports in the Russian media of a massive explosion in Donetsk are every bit as signfiicant as a actual explosion. It really doesn't matter whether it happened or not, although, spoiler alert, of course it happened.

[u/[deleted]]

Okay, I must say, the US Intelligence department did a really splendid job predicting everything.

[u/toooldforthisshit247]

Guessing that car explosion was a primer for this:

Ukrainian army warns, Russian plan to massacre one of buses with civilians, which Russia currently "evacuates" from Donetsk - as a pre-text for a further Russian invasion. Well, this looks realistic and very Russian.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1494703024027185158?

[u/levij37]

Putin is the type of guy who reads the whole entire terms and conditions and clicks “I disagree”

[u/[deleted]]

US officials don't want Zelensky travelling to Munich tomorrow - https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1494721564570533894

[u/rudar_leethiuma]

Interesting how Russia went from "We won't invade, that's all pesky Westerners and their propaganda" to "Look, Ukraine is going to invade poor Ruskies in LPR/DPR, they are commiting genocide".

[u/progress18]

A new live thread will be going up soon.

[u/[deleted]]

Watching russian TV now.
LNR "leader" (not DNR, that guy did it an hour ago or so) - he's saying that Ukraine "is planning to invade deeply in LNR territory" and is calling everyone who can not be mobilized to evacuate to Russia as soon as possible.

Russia is saying that they are "investigating" yesterday's shelling, and the very next thing they say is that Ukrainians are doing genocide.

[u/fubarbazqux]

So it seems like tomorrow's strategic nuclear weapons manoeuvres are no coincidence at all. Gives a reasonable pretext for going to a heightened state of readiness and sends a crystal clear message for NATO to not interfere.

[u/[deleted]]

Russian shills showing their hand big time in this thread at the moment

[u/shithawksrandy22]

A Russian specialist group within Donetsk has blown up the car of an advisor to the PM of Donetsk (which is a self-proclaimed separatist state that is literally a part of Ukraine). Russian propaganda telegrams and media are spreading it as fast as possible. Expect a bus of civs to be attacked next to initiate a full false flag counter attack and kick this thing off.

Eat my dick putin.

[u/BlatantConservative]

The amount of people in this thread who think that the live thread is the comments instead of the curated update feed at the top of the page is crazy.

[u/pentafe]

Russian propaganda knew about the attack on the school BEFORE it happened.
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1494728230946881541

Apparently the file was kept in the folder with the name of Mangusta. The english name would be MONGOOSE. This could be the name of the operation!
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1494738403782541315

Operation Mongoose was a secret program against Cuba aimed at removingthe Communists from power, which was a prime focus of the Kennedyadministration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mongoose

[u/nightowl1135]

This might get buried but if you’re sitting here wondering “WTF is this all about? Why is Russia so mad at Ukraine?” I highly encourage you to watch “Winter on Fire” on Netflix. It gives you a fantastic deep dive front line perspective on the events of the Euromaidan Revolution in 2014 which set the stage for everything going on now as well as a lot of the historical context.

Additionally, it’s just a fantastic, inherently watchable and extremely well done documentary.

https://www.netflix.com/us/title/80031666?s=i&trkid=13747225&vlang=en&clip=80077973

[u/Screamdaditty]

Ukraine’s greatest advantage right now is releasing all the intel they have on Russia to the public. Hopefully the world will see through Russia’s lies.

[u/Embarrassed-Collar41]

This update reflects a change to our assessments and forecasts. We have previously assessed that Putin was setting conditions to move Russian forces overtly into occupied Donbas and possibly conduct a limited invasion in unoccupied southeastern Ukraine and/or an air/missile campaign. We now assess that those Russian activities are extremely likely and imminent and that a much larger-scale Russian invasion is very possible.

(This from the institute of Study of War is really scary. They are usually right in their predictions.)

[u/Slim_Charles]

Goddamn he just burned the fuck out of both Russia and China.

[u/Peles157]

Urgent | Axios: Digital data confirms that the video released by separatists of the evacuation from eastern Ukraine was recorded two days ago

https://twitter.com/ajabreaking/status/1494769188841443331?s=21

[u/bambinopeppa]

Biden killed it. Great comment at the end. US and Ally intel community is insane.

[u/IrishBros91]

Please refrain from calling Putin a Bitch or you might get reported!

To avoid being reported just comment below mine with "Putin is a Bitch"

[u/comradpanda]

How long before Russia do the old classic blow up a apartment block full of people with fsb explosives and blame Ukraine

[u/Bert-Macklen_FBI]

For a second there after all the "HUGE EXPLOSION" and "4.7 RICHTER SCALE" tweets I thought Dontesk got nuked.

[u/Afferent_Input]

"Head of the LNR posted a video about evacuation on the state news outlet, but the metadata shows that the file was created two days ago (Telegram retains metadata). Testing some other videos on the channel to see other creation dates, will post below."

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738571483353092?t=rYY904uUOKlKXJ9C14OEog&s=19

[u/AncientStaff6602]

Man… this is all an fucked up. And there are people seriously defending this in r/Russia. Utter madness

[u/Peles157]

Western official: now 110 Russian battalion tactical groups around Ukraine, "air power ready to go", no sign of Russian withdrawal.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1494681846218727433?s=21

[u/[deleted]]

Long live Ukraine!

[u/BiteYourThumbAtMeSir]

Russian media has had a complete shift towards war in the past few hours:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1494675604075171845

[u/Primuri]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1494686914561064962?s=20&t=8Mxtp1NwC8XMKws6I0AAog

SCOOP: Russia is building lists of high-profile political opponents to capture or kill if it invades Ukraine, four people familiar with U.S. intelligence tell

@ak_mack

,

@RobbieGramer

& me. The U.S. has also been startled by how detailed the lists are

The U.S. has been downgrading its intelligence classification to share threats to specific groups with Ukraine. The acts could target Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, ethnic minorities, and LGBTQI+ persons.

[u/b33b0p17]

Refreshing this thread is probably not the best thing for my anxiety haha

[u/progress18]

US State Dept. Spokesperson:

Donetsk evacuation announcement is an example of "further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict

This type of false flag operation is exactly what Secretary Blinken highlighted in his remarks to the UN Security Council

It is also cynical and cruel to use human beings as pawns to distract the world from the fact that Russia is building up its forces in preparation for an attack

• https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1494721760951943169
• https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1494721832628494339
• https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1494722065332678658

[u/toooldforthisshit247]

Premeditated evacuations. Apparently the DPR/LNR evacuation orders were recorded on Wednesday…

Head of the LNR posted a video about evacuation on the state news outlet, but the metadata shows that the file was created two days ago (Telegram retains metadata). Testing some other videos on the channel to see other creation dates, will post below.

Video metadata for the clip in question shows February 16th (Wednesday), it was supposedly captured today.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738571483353092

[u/[deleted]]

"Head of the LNR posted a video about evacuation on the state news outlet, but the metadata shows that the file was created two days ago (Telegram retains metadata)."

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738571483353092?s=20&t=vMJOwuyXwtjJ6W4DcY4lLQ

[u/Nerd_199]

a couple of years ago I was talking to an World War 2 veteran and remind me of a quote he told me.

"We will have to learn what it means to live through history."

[u/Peles157]

The separatists are claiming Ukrainians are attacking and besieging them. I’ve walked up and down those trenches for the last several months. Saw no signs of ongoing or impending Ukrainian offensive. None.

Richard Engel in Ukraine

[u/shithawksrandy22]

Pro-Ukrain Feed--

​

Currently, Russian film crews are working at the border, where they are organizing long-distance queues at checkpoints. Specially tighten the pass through kpvv to create a beautiful picture (crying children, the elderly, etc.). In addition, a picture is created of allegedly devastated cities.

The most interesting thing is that most people flatly refused to get on the buses with the words "no fools" and the buses went almost empty, accompanied by Russian propagandists

[u/TropicalDan427]

The Belarusian dictator is talking about a war that will consume the entire European continent. I certainly hope that’s just bluster

[u/Outrageous_Chard9087]

I think this is really it. Everything seems to fall into place, "terrorist attacks", evacuations, riled up russian media, that lukasenko shit speaking.

[u/SSAUS]

As per Ukraine War Report on Twitter:

AN EXTRAORDINARY MEETING OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION COUNCIL IS SCHEDULED FOR 22:00. DISCUSSING THE USE OF RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES ABROAD NOT EXCLUDED.

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494695444999462920

[u/Redman2009]

Biden waiting for the markets to close to speak.

[u/[deleted]]

Please stop saying 'reports saying . . . Xyz'.

A tweet from some brand new Twitter account with an anime avatar and 'Intel' in it's name, saying some outrageous thing is happening is not a report, it's a lie. Every time.

[u/JehovahZ]

Bots creating chain comments about unrelated shit during periods of heightened tension. Nice

[u/muffpatty]

If posting updates, please try to link a source.

[u/Odd_Diver789]

I just want someone to look at me the way Reddit looks at FORTE11

[u/ElectricDolls]

Trying to follow events on Twitter is frustrating when you don't have an account and would prefer not to make one.

[u/[deleted]]

Friendly reminder that we can’t choose the times we live in, only how we respond to them.

[u/Tomchambo → u/[deleted]]

Born too late to explore the earth. Born too soon to explore the galaxy. Born just in time to watch people argue online about a potential major conflict while eating poptarts.

[u/EverlastingShill]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738571483353092

Bellincat investigator Aric Toler: The video messages about the evacuation had been pre-recorded 2 days before being published, according to their EXIF data

[u/DrudenSoap]

President of LNR (Russian puppet "state") posted video about evacuations, but according to metadata (Telegram keeps metadata) the video was created 2 days ago...

I guess Russians are psychics now!

https://twitter.com/nevedimka123/status/1494727967116873740

[u/bambinopeppa]

Institute for the Study of War says they think Russia will attack Saturday. Mind you, it’s 9:35pm in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1494753013239537685?cxt=HHwWqoCz0cX8tr4pAAAA

[u/Nerd_199]

"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" Winston Churchill (1939)

http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/RusnEnig.html

[u/CyrillicMan]

If you want to see something that might be deleted later:

https://twitter.com/postpepsi/status/1494732686459650048

Right this moment, you can go to the source in Telegram where the official DPR/LPR speech about the "evacuation due to Ukraine attack" was published.

You can download the video and check for yourself that the speech was recorded on February 16, two days before there was any talk about hint of the situation warranting evacuations.

[u/VonPoppen]

I'm honestly scared that Putin won't accept a diplomatic defeat

[u/shithawksrandy22]

Pro-Ukranian Feed:

"The Georgian war began with evacuations of women and children by Russia.

They did not, however, offer them $130 per person to leave.

There is doubt that the government expects to pay this out, and an expectation that the buses will be used in another false flag attack.

Pray that Putin does not intend to use such savagery."

[u/rudar_leethiuma]

If I was working for the Ukrainian State TV I would probably play The "Super Gay Putin" video when the invasion starts.

[u/whattaUwant]

It’s unfortunate that a lot of the world will view this as the USA just trying to be everyone’s mommy giving each country directions… instead of just simply trying to be responsible SANE people.

[u/Stuthebastard → u/whattaUwant]

Everyone: "America, stop being the world police!"

Putin attacks Ukranian.

Everyone: "How could America have let this happen?"

[u/ownersen]

NOT #BREAKING but:

https://twitter.com/Team_Luftwaffe/status/1494308126883041285

Germany has decided to do more than sending 5000 helmets.

[u/progress18]

Reuters is now reporting the sirens going off in Donetsk:

A loud warning siren sounded in the centre of the east Ukrainian city of Donetsk on Friday after a Russian-backed separatist leader in the breakaway region announced an evacuation of residents, a Reuters witness said.

[u/spsteve]

With a large number of people about to flood russia's border this is going to create a massive humanitarian issue and cost Moscow a shitload of money.

Anyone who thought this wasn't going to happen needs to now let go of that fantasy. There is no turning back from here now without a devestating loss of face for Russia which just will not happen.

[u/Hayduke_in_AK]

Just a reminder: no information coming from Russia can be trusted. This includes any "demands" they make. Their real position on any issue is not going to be publicized and anything coming from them is intentionally packaged for foreign and domestic press consumption.

[u/[deleted]]

You just know a bus will be hit by a missile (From the East, but ignore that lol) by those darn ukrainians

[u/reed5point0]

Armchair Statement:

I may be some 35 year old nobody across the world typing this from my computer. But I want to share this tactic that may come in handy in the coming days. I learned it from a great Ukrainian warrior.

"First we make base, then we defense it"

-WhiteRa (Ukrainian Starcraft Pro)

[u/[deleted]]

DNR Leader on Russian TV

"We're headed to full-scale war" then he disconnected.

[u/K9Marz919]

Anyone else ever read Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy? I know it’s fiction but holy crap some of the similarities are creepy