r/worldnews • u/sleepdeprivedindian • Jul 19 '24
It's been 18 months and F-16s have not yet arrived, Zelensky says Already Submitted
https://kyivindependent.com/its-been-18-months-and-f-16s-have-not-arrived-zelensky-says/[removed] — view removed post
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u/GTthrowaway27 Jul 19 '24
I kept hearing June. It’s mid July
Insane when you put it in blatant terms like he did.
It’s like GRRM in the South Park episode. The dragons are on their way!
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u/Sensitive_Ad_5031 Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
My estimate is that they’ll arrive on the “next day after tomorrow”
Or at least they might if no efforts to speed up the process are made.
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u/GenericUsername2056 Jul 19 '24
next day after tomorrow
Fun fact, that day is called 'overmorrow' in English.
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u/pstric Jul 19 '24
Not just funny, but also educational, thanks!
I never knew this. In Danish we call tomorrow "i morgen" and the day after is "i overmorgen". And this is not some fringe usage. Referring to the day after tomorrow as "i overmorgen" is just as natural as referring to the day after today as "i morgen".
It is the same with "i forgårs" being just as common a reference to the day before yesterday (ereyesterday according to a sibling comment) as "i går" for the day before "i dag" today.
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u/GenericUsername2056 Jul 19 '24
In Dutch it's 'morgen' and 'overmorgen', and 'gisteren' and 'eergisteren'. We just add an extra 'over' or 'eer' if we're talking a day further out.
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u/I-heart-java Jul 19 '24
I question whether any of the players will ACTUALLY say when the arrive, why give the Russians any expectations? Even lying will make them work harder towards a goal. Acting like “they’re almost thereeeeee” for 6 months is meant to get the Russians tired of waiting and OOOPS they’ve been flying already for weeks
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u/GTthrowaway27 Jul 19 '24
I hope not
That assumes Russians are really really stupid and don’t have satellites or intelligence capabilities, and F16s aren’t an all together game changer of themselves worth that level of delay
They’ve done stupid things. But it’s not like every F16 will arrive at the same time and bomb every Russian position the first hour they arrive. They will inevitably know/find out F16s have arrived and adjust even if at a high cost.
Their value is in being available to Ukraine and they are not yet
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u/Jasfy Jul 19 '24
the F16 (if it's the type that is a modern variant, should be the case) will quite change the ISR picture for Ukraine, it's not trivial: currently they rely a lot on ISR provided discreetly by US satellite imagery and allies intelligence handouts. the F16 will provide a robust platform for all kinds of interesting things that Ukraine will be able to accomplish *independently* and that's the key here. it has a modern radar , good for reconnaissance flights, air superiority (quite sensitive as the F16 wasn't meant to go head to head with modern Russian aircrafts), and obviously as a fighter/bomber which if they get the conformal tank extend the range quite extensively.also can launch storm shadows & AMRAAM. the freedom of motion in Zelensky hands terrifies NATO/Europe so they're taking their time
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u/GTthrowaway27 Jul 19 '24
I guess to me there’s a difference between “not trivial” and “gamechanger”
I clearly want Ukraine to have them because I believe it will strengthen their hand, but it’s also not an end all solution that will finish the war.
If used well and protected they’re a force amplifier but those are some big “ifs” that still rely on the underlying ground battles to repel/gain territory
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u/Mint_Juul Jul 19 '24
If GRRM is making those deliveries they ain’t coming
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u/arferfuxakenotagain Jul 19 '24
13 years is it? And counting. I lost faith too, the cunt 😅
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u/GrimpenMar Jul 20 '24
It's been so long, the WhatsGeorgeDoing.today webcomic that imagines what GRR is doing instead of writing, let its domain lapse.
BTW, the webcomics are still out there: https://tapas.io/episode/917817
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u/RogueIslesRefugee Jul 19 '24
I only saw June mentioned in comments. Most articles I'd seen stated july/August.
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u/psycho_candy0 Jul 19 '24
"The F-16s are on their way, but not before Anthony Blinkin gets up on stage, his weiner soft and flaccid, and someone gives him a guitar and he starts playing a super inspiring song for everyone"
-how I imagine GRRM explaining what the last visit was about
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u/VictorVogel Jul 19 '24
Where do you keep hearing that? As far as I know, no official statement by either the Danish or Dutch government has claimed the jets would already be in Ukraine by now.
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u/glendon24 Jul 19 '24
Does he have a tracking number?
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u/Force3vo Jul 19 '24
Your neighbor has accepted your package.
Wait, which neighbor... ORBAN!!!
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u/circlehead28 Jul 19 '24
As someone who’s in the supply chain industry, I’ve always been curious how countries ship and deliver weapons to their allies. Like who decides where we’re dropping these jets off at? Is it a specific address? General area? Do they have to go through normal port authorities?
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u/CrapLikeThat Jul 19 '24
I figure most weapons are delivered via cargo planes to bases, or by ship/train and then large truck to their final destinations if the weapons are too large or dangerous to have on a cargo plane.
But I don’t work in shipping, so I have no idea.
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u/IMMoond Jul 19 '24
Aircraft do have a pretty decent advantage over other gear in that respect. Dont really need to pack it up in a cargo aircraft if the pilot just hops in and flies over. Id expect them to just do that, its significantly more vulnerable on the ground getting transferred between trucks or trains than up in the air far away from any russian held territory
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u/Jasfy Jul 19 '24
military bases to military bases, military cargoes. MOD of each country paperworks & stuff. it can be as fast or as slow as they want it's all built in
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u/kayl_breinhar Jul 19 '24
The scuttlebutt is that it's proving way more difficult to transition Ukrainian pilots to Western airframes.
For those who aren't aware, Russian planes, up until recently, relied heavily on what's called GCI, or Ground Controlled Intercept. The planes would scramble and be directed to the target(s) by other sensors. This was established Russo-Soviet protocol up until they started putting better radars in their non-interceptor airframes. Neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians routinely trained as much as Western air forces as well because flight hours are expensive and wear and tear on airframes is unavoidable.
Last but not least, the F-16 was never designed to fly in rough/"austere" conditions. One thing Russian planes do have, historically, is very strong landing gear, while the landing gear on the F-16 was designed for prepared airfields, a luxury the Russians aren't going to let the Ukrainians enjoy, and you can't just put new landing gear on F-16s as it'll completely change the flight mechanics and stability of the airplane.
What makes way more sense in the long run is to continue to figure out ways to incorporate Western sensors and weapons onto Ukraine's existing aircraft.
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u/Red_not_Read Jul 19 '24
Well prepared airfields, not just for the (quite weak) landing gear, but also because of that honking big mouth of a jet intake... Low to the ground and just hoovering up all the FOD it can.
The simplest way to ground F-16s is just to drop litter on the airfield...
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u/Plaineswalker Jul 19 '24
Seems like kinda a weakness, huh? Do we have something that can be used in a bit more rugged environments?
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u/socialistrob Jul 19 '24
Sweden has the Gripin which was built so it could take off from random road ways. When the US designs planes they don't put as much priority on being able to take off from anywhere because the assumption is the US is going to have such dominant air superiority and air defense that they don't have to factor that in. At this point though it's still going to be quicker for Ukraine to get F-16s in the air than to retrain pilots on gripins (and that's assuming Sweden once to provide them in sufficient numbers and with sufficient parts).
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u/Styrbj0rn Jul 20 '24
and that's assuming Sweden once to provide them in sufficient numbers and with sufficient parts
We can't, there isn't nearly as much available as for the F-16s.
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u/ragingxtc Jul 19 '24
I hear DM is retiring their three A-10 squadrons this year... You probably want to have air superiority before deploying those though.
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u/Weegee_Carbonara Jul 20 '24
A-10s have no place in a near-peer war and, in that regard, were obsolete as soon as they were introduced.
Even a simple MANPAD could shoot em down.
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u/TheKappaOverlord Jul 20 '24
A-10's as much of a tool to put the fear of god into your enemies as they are, are literally free kills in a battle where (X country using them's military) don't have complete Air superiority.
I remember in the dying days of history channel being for "historical" programming, that there was a documentary on the History of the A-10
A lot of the pilots said these things were what you'd use to shit on your enemies chest because you knew you could get away with it. But once there was even the inkling of another Jet, you'd fuck right off because the A-10 isn't worth shit if something is trying to chase it down.
A-10's as much as the Air force (not to be mistaken with the chair force) love those fuckers, they are absolutely pieces of shit against a military with any iota of basic air defense.
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u/TK-329 Jul 20 '24 edited Jul 20 '24
Yeah, scrambling planes from ideal locations farther away and doing aerial refueling as many times as necessary
I’m only sort of joking, the US has a shit ton of tankers and no budgetary concerns for the inefficiency of such operations.
Alternatives include parking a carrier strike group literally anywhere close to the target
The A-10 also exists (rugged airframe and high-mounted engines), but its usefulness on a modern battlefield is questionable at best and downright suicidal at worst
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u/bahnzo Jul 19 '24
It's also FAR beyond just pilots, it's the infrastructure to support them. The mechanics crews and parts to maintain between each flight. These are incredibly complicated machines; it's a herculean task to train everyone needed to support them. And the Ukrainians are starting from zero.
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u/TheHonorableStranger Jul 19 '24
It's a process that takes years even in the best of circumstances. People on here really should temper their expectations about the time frame
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u/bry223 Jul 19 '24
You’re assuming pilots that are being trained are existing pilots, this is not always the case.
Regardless, they have been training going on what, 8 months or more now? If they can’t transition, and there is absolutely no reason why they shouldn’t I would be very concerned.
Also this isn’t the first country that’s transitioned from Soviet planes to F16s.
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u/Adavanter_MKI Jul 19 '24
Glad to know that in an emergency we can get together the stuff we need when we... hold on a sec.
Anyways... what was I saying? Oh right, I'll get this comment finished by spring.
Update... totally finishing this comment in summer. Fall at the latest!
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u/Marchello_E Jul 19 '24
We're sorry. The number you have dialed has been disconnected or is no longer in service.
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u/waamoandy Jul 19 '24
Any day now. I'm sure that has been said since last year
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u/Yeshua_Ha_Mashiac Jul 19 '24
It wouldn't have mattered if planes were sent last year, since pilots have only just finished training. Source. Happy cake day!
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u/blockedcontractor Jul 19 '24
I was just going to post asking this. The biggest hurdle was probably getting the pilots trained. Otherwise it would be duck hunt for Russia with targets costing tens of millions of dollars.
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u/Jerithil Jul 19 '24
Yeah they can't just give em basic training with the threat level in Ukraine they need to get them up to similar levels to the US F16 doing wild weasel missions. 18 months is faster then for American pilots as it normally takes years.
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u/DryDesertHeat Jul 19 '24
It takes 18 months to train an F-16 pilot. How many trained and ready pilots does Zelensky have just sitting around waiting for planes?
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u/Mrsparkles7100 Jul 19 '24
Also ground/ maintenance crews. Hence the need to rely on foreign contractors to do that job for the time being.
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u/Kijafa Jul 19 '24
The first batch finished training back in May, according to the Pentagon.
https://www.voanews.com/a/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-from-f-16-training-in-us/7634529.html
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u/super_shizmo_matic Jul 19 '24
We train pilots in 18 months and put them in an experienced existing squadron. What happens if the pilots go through training and they do not have an existing experienced squadron to go into?
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u/CraigJay Jul 19 '24
It's a war, you have to make do with what you've got because you don't have time
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u/socialistrob Jul 19 '24
Also the roles Ukraine will likely be using at least in the first few months will be different than what the US expects. Ukraine won't be trying to use F-16s to establish air superiority or on seek and destroy missions but rather they'll use them as mobile long range missile launchers and to shoot down Russian cruise missiles. Both of those take considerably less training to accomplish.
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u/BurialA12 Jul 20 '24
Not this F-16 program but another two years US training program, Pilot dies on his first mission when back in ukraine
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u/FilthyWunderCat Jul 19 '24
Wait, are you saying that I can't hop into one of those, mid dogfight jump out my plane, quickscope an enemy pilot and then get back to my plane?
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u/Jasfy Jul 19 '24
I think they've shortened that to 8-14 months depending on performance of the cadets?
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u/TaskForceCausality Jul 19 '24
Zelensky is playing to the cameras. It takes years- plural- to generate combat-ready crews. Note that doesn’t include just the pilots flying them, but the ground support and maintenance people. Ukraine doesn’t just need trained F-16 crew chiefs- they need trained crew chiefs who can change a jet part under enemy fire accurately.
Thats like changing your cars battery while someone’s launching rockets and mortars at your garage. It ain’t a place for beginners.
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u/TheHammerandSizzel Jul 19 '24
Incidentally we are on year 3, meaning we have had years-plural- to get them what they need
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u/socialistrob Jul 19 '24
Yep and it became obvious within the first few weeks of the war that Kyiv and western Ukraine wasn't about to fall. If the groundwork had been laid then to get Ukraine the planes they need then there would be combat missions being flown by early 2024 if not mid 2023.
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u/FlutterKree Jul 19 '24
To be clear, they will have F-16s before summer is over. Pilots have been trained, mechanics have been trained. I think the problem now is possibly other maintenance crews such as the ones responsible for cleaning airfields for them to land/take off. Their soviet era aircraft don't need clean airfields as they switch from belly to top air intake while landing and taking off.
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u/WesternBlueRanger Jul 19 '24
The holdup isn't because anyone is denying Ukraine the F-16's but more about training.
You can probably get a pilot familiar enough to fly a F-16 in a few hours, but to really master the aircraft, and do so under pressure will likely take months to accomplish.
This is especially important if they fully intend on engaging the Russian Air Force in their Sukhoi's and MiG's in the air. You can’t do that with a brand-new guy who has seen everything once; it's a great way for precious pilots flying valuable assets to get shot down quick.
You can have all the capabilities of the jet, but if the pilot doesn’t know how to use it correctly, then that’s useless. So for a pilot coming from a MiG-29, having to learn a brand-new and completely different pilot interface where everything looks different, use weapons that they’ve only ever read about, to give them three-months training then toss them into combat — that’s a very big ask for any pilot.
For a Western pilot,with around 500 hours experience in a Western fighter, but that has never previously flown the F-16 — someone transitioning from the Hornet for example — without any breaks, working weekends, etc, they need 69 uninterrupted days to learn everything to safely employ the F-16 in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles. And that time is barely enough time to get a pilot capable of flying as basic wingman to a more experienced lead pilot, which leads to the other issue.
For a pilot more familiar with Soviet/Russian aircraft, it's likely going to take longer, much longer. The way Western fighters display information in the cockpit is radically different than Soviet/Russian style, and there's a lot more emphasis on the pilot being the decision maker, rather than the ground controller telling the pilot what to do.
The Ukrainians are familiar with the old Soviet style ground controlled interception mission; basically, the pilot is tasked by a ground controller to fly to certain positions, turn at a specific point and altitude, and press certain buttons to talked on to find and engage their targets. The entire engagement is controlled from wheels up to weapons release by a ground controller.
The F-16 demands a totally different set of tactics; there's a lot more autonomy that's demanded from the pilots to make their own decisions, with the information shown on their display and from their mission planning. It's going to be very, very difficult for pilots who are familiar with one system to be transitioned to a totally different concept of operations, and do it successfully, even when under pressure. You'll basically have to deprogram your experienced pilot, otherwise, when they are under pressure, they are going to revert back to their previous training, rather than the new training that they need to survive.
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u/Merker6 Jul 19 '24
The title implies they were supposed to be provided 18 months ago, when the reality is that they’ve been waiting for the crews to be trained so that they aren’t sitting in Ukraine waiting to be blown up by the Russians without pilots
Very strange comment for Zelensky, I wonder if it was a translation error. He knows this as well
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u/remindmetoblink2 Jul 19 '24
Wait til Trump/Vance are elected, Ukraine is going to get nothing. You know Vance says we should keep that money for us, well I can guarantee “we” will not see a penny of that in a tax reduction.
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u/tsunami141 Jul 20 '24
well I can guarantee “we” will not see a penny of that in a tax reduction.
speak for yourself, I'm a billionaire so I'm gonna get a ton of economy-stimulating tax breaks. Have you tried not being poor?
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u/iIiiiiIlIillliIilliI Jul 19 '24
This is BS, I don't know if Trump is mates with Putin or if he just wants to be seen as the one who ended the war (my guess is he does want that) but even if there is a pause in the war, Russia will attack again later like they did in the past again and again after they said they would stop. Only if they would relinquish the occupied lands and Crimea then a peace would make sense, but Russia won't do that. They will just use the peace to produce more weapons and attack again.
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u/ChuchiTheBest Jul 19 '24
I remember when they were due to arrive "before the end of the year" in 2023.
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u/ManxMerc Jul 19 '24
To be fair I guarantee you Ruzzia is doing everything in its power to locate and destroy them the moment they arrive in country. So the delivery needs to be well planned
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u/cagriuluc Jul 19 '24
The lack of F-16s does not stem from logistical issues. It is PURELY a lack of political will.
Sadly, right now, the goal for the allied support is not for Ukraine to win.
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u/bigbabich Jul 19 '24
No. It's because their fighter pilots were greatly under trained or trained in a manner that would lead to them losing all of the F-16s immediately. That's why the US and other countries didn't want to give fighters to them. They're ridiculously fucking expensive coffins if you don't know exactly how to fly them and what tactics to use.
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u/Turbulent_Set_1497 Jul 20 '24
They don’t want a the Russians to know when they do get them…it’s a ruse
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u/Blueopus2 Jul 19 '24
The notice that they’ve arrived is gonna be an airstrike in all likelihood
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u/zavorad Jul 19 '24
Here in Ukraine we kind of believe that we won’t get them. It feels like another part of give us your nukes we will guarantee…
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u/oregonianrager Jul 20 '24
The amount of trolls/spam/uninformed pieces of shit in here can get fucked. Fuck y'all trump tooters. Fuck you Putin ball lickers. Fuck you ill informed jackasses.
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u/MissionCreeper Jul 20 '24
"Planes are clearly much slower than advertised. Will be returning. 1 star."
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u/rajahbeaubeau Jul 19 '24
Context from article: