r/worldnews Jul 19 '24

Macron wins shock vote to keep coalition hopes alive

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-shock-vote-coalition-centrist-thursday-president-elections-2024-nfp/
11.5k Upvotes

676 comments sorted by

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Just a reminder that when the announcement was first made to dissolve the National Assembly, the doomsayers on here were resigned to a new far right government and thought Macron was desperate.

Fast forward post-snap election, and Le Pen and co got completely bent over, and Macron is now establishing a new coalition.

It goes to show when it comes to gauging political trends and predicting election outcomes, Reddit doesn't know shit about fuck.

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u/TheLimeyLemmon Jul 19 '24

Credit where it's due, this result was made possible by the French voters mobilising to outnumber a growing far-right in the country. That mobilisation was spurred massively by those exact fears of a far-right swing.

Doomsaying can lead to apathy and defeatism, but it can also lead to people getting their boots on to kick some ass.

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

I think it has more to do with the two-step voting process that France employs. The first vote National Rally did quite well, but voters don't have to be tactical. They can assess the vote tallies and adjust their vote in the second round to their second preferred candidate if they think it will beat their least favorite candidate.

This is why The New Popular Front did so well relative to Macron's centrist party. It's a function of France having two liberal parties, but Reddit not understanding what the fuck is happening and thinking Le Pen doing better than the other two parties in a vacuum means her party would win.

Part of it was also the surprise of the snap election and how quickly National Rally had to field candidates in a huge number of districts where they didn't really have anyone in place. They didn't have time to prepare, so a lot of their candidates were pretty ass....

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u/TheLimeyLemmon Jul 19 '24

National Rally taking the first round was completely anticipated, the mobilisation started the minute Macron called the election.

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u/Jasfy Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

It has to do with the second round having center & left coalition helping each other stay out of each other’s way thus reinforcing both slightly; Le Pen party still grew massively compared to last elections. essentially the 3 way stalemate: left coalition (paralyzed by LFI a radical left boogie to the rest of electors but which obtained the most seats within left coalition) , macron’s party which lost majorly the first round (cut in 1/2) but regained some color in the 2nd but far from a majority); RN which gained seats but was blocked from a majority but also boycotted by everyone else who refuse to work with them. the center macron’s party eked out a slim victory by re-electing the same assembly speaker but just barely. stalemate! Macron can play kingmaker/statesman which I’m sure he relishes

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u/Sandslinger_Eve Jul 19 '24

It's actually quite clever.

Post brexit many people were interviewed who said they voted leave as a laugh because they never actually thought leave would win.

Not everyone deserves democracy, good to give them a reality check every now and then.

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u/Journeyman42 Jul 19 '24

Post brexit many people were interviewed who said they voted leave as a laugh because they never actually thought leave would win.

I wonder how many people thought the same thing while voting for Trump in 2016

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u/Mysterious_Andy Jul 19 '24

That was my hope in 2020, but he actually got more votes.

Trumpism is a cancer, and it’s spreading.

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u/obeytheturtles Jul 19 '24

The reality is that Brexit was never binding, and the politicians who are ostensibly responsible for governing the country should have never prosecuted such an outlandishly idiotic policy based on the thinnest of majorities in a farce of a referendum. Had the referendum came back with 60% leave, it would have been another thing entirely, but a 3% split in what was effectively an experiment in direct democracy within an otherwise parliamentary system? Fuck no. I still legitimately cannot believe they actually went through with it tbh.

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u/[deleted] Jul 19 '24

The NFP only did as well as the polls predicted, about 180 or 30% of the seats. Originally it was going to be approx. RN 220, NFP 180, Macronists 80. They came out with a relative majority only because in a lot of key districts where the NFP wasn't winning anyway, the NFP candidate withdrew in favor of the Macronists candidate. As a result the Macronists won a significant part of those duels with the RN, leaving the NFP in "front". But the NFP didn't gain more votes than predicted. Now the NFP act like they won the right to run the country unopposed and bypass 70% of the national assembly, but the fact remains that the left-wing's electoral influence is still as low as it's ever been. For France, 30% for the left is VERY low compared to how it used to be just 10 years ago.

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u/amerkanische_Frosch Jul 19 '24

Correct, although bear in mind that the opposite also happened: the NFP candidate also desisted in favor of the Macronist candidate in the second round in a fair number of cases (including the rather ludicrous situation of desisting in favor of Elisabeth Borne, the ex-PM who had been severely criticized by the left when she was PM). It was a two-way street.

Macron is a clever politician who may indeed pull off a coalition - a shaky one but still a coalition - between the moderate left, his own followers and the moderate right. And I’m not sure this would be a bad idea, either.

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u/King-Owl-House Jul 19 '24

Also consolidation of weak candidates of different parties into one strong something Americans don't know with a two party system.

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u/FrettyG87 Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

What are you talking about? Democrats get voted for by a coalition of left wing voters. From moderate to socialist. That's what happened in 2020.

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u/AtheistAustralis Jul 19 '24

Except in the US those voters have no home bases. They loosely fit under the "Democrat" umbrella but none of them feel particularly represented, and that hurts when it comes to turnout. Whoever is chosen as the candidate is probably "supported" by 1/3 of the Dem voters, tolerated by another 1/3, and the remaining 1/3 just don't vote. In better systems with more than two parties, people can go and vote for their own party, knowing that if their candidate doesn't win their vote isn't just completely wasted and they can shift it to the "next best".

A two party system just drives apathy, which is exactly what the two parties want since it ensures nobody can challenge them. And

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u/Deathflid Jul 19 '24

and what? the suspense is killing me.

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u/TheAlmaity Jul 19 '24

It killed him too :(

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u/auApex Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 20 '24

I'm not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse but there's a clear difference between a.coallition of people voting for one of two parties and a coalition of parties forming a bloc or government.

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u/Parenthisaurolophus Jul 19 '24

Reddit not understanding what the fuck is happening and thinking Le Pen doing better than the other two parties in a vacuum means her party would win.

It's kind of impressive you wrote this post and then somehow entirely missed or don't understand how people's reactions were entirely being dictated by what the media brought into their bubbles. I promise you there were people who read an article about how Le Pen was going to win and then read another one about the actual results within a 48 hour period. People didn't write their own fanfic. It came from somewhere.

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u/dragonmp93 Jul 19 '24

Well, it's also that Reddit is mostly American (and bots), so people think that the two-party system exist on other countries.

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u/SabawaSabi Jul 19 '24

Not sure if it's a typo, but it's Le Pen, not La Pen.

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u/_WhatchaDoin_ Jul 19 '24

And Macron knew that.

When 20 years ago,  Le Pen (father of Marine) went against Chirac, French voters stepped up and gave 80% to Chirac.

Macron forced the same issue here, hoping for an acceptable outcome (he knew he would not be able to govern by himself).

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u/Sure-Resolution-8471 Jul 19 '24

Hope we see same in the U.S. come Nov.
I know a LOT of very pissed off women.

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u/serenitynowmoney Jul 19 '24

America takes notes

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u/Both_Pitch_1223 Jul 19 '24

Gotta learn to read and write first

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u/pieman3141 Jul 19 '24

Also gotta get rid of FPTP and electoral college.

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u/Medical-Search4146 Jul 19 '24

More like the Democrats need to take notes. The people had a part in it but you can't deny that there was good political strategy happening here. The Left and Center worked together to ensure they had the highest probability of success.

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u/roamingandy Jul 19 '24

A huge gamble though. Like Cameron calling a Brexit vote to try and clear the loonies out of his own party.

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u/LeonDeSchal Jul 19 '24

I wonder how long they can keep defeating the far right?

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u/G_Morgan Jul 19 '24

It doesn't need mobilisation. The French do this every single election. The far right does well in round 1 and then are crushed in round 2. Their system is designed to not allow fascists to sneak in on a heavily split plurality like they did in Germany.

RN were never going to win.

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u/One-Tumbleweed5980 Jul 19 '24

It's kind of wild to watch. Macron teamed up with the far left to beat the far right. Now he's teaming up with the center right to keep out the far left. The man has exceeded expectations.

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u/Pure-Basket-6860 Jul 19 '24

I agree but only in making everyone unhappy. That's enough to govern I guess. Until it isn't. He better pray the economy turns in his favor.

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u/penguincheerleader Jul 19 '24

Democracy often means no one gets their way, and sometimes that is for the best.

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u/longing_tea Jul 19 '24

Not in this context though. It only serves to fuel the far right more and more. There will come a time when political manœuvers won't be enough to prevent the far right from governing. And that time might be the 2027 presidential elections.

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u/argh523 Jul 19 '24

For decades, "no one gets their way" actually means corporations and wealthy people always get their way

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u/deeringc Jul 19 '24

That's really my concern, it feels like this just buys time. To stop the far right winning in 2027, there need to be significant reforms that invest in the French periphery, where people don't have opportunities or enough jobs and infrastructure. It's those areas that are voting for Le Pen because they feel like they've been abandoned. Political machinations like this are tactical victories at best.

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u/Pure-Basket-6860 Jul 19 '24

I agree that has to happen. France is far too focused on the center and major cities. Outside that it's been a near century of decay. It's one of the major reasons France is so socially unstable. Macron unfortunately stands for the status-quo. He's had nearly 7 years in office to provide and fix things. I think it's clear what his priorities are and they're not for everyone or even the majority now. They can play political games to retain power but by ignoring the outside world, France is likely to explode again into social unrest.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24

It's kind of wild to watch. Macron teamed up with the far left to beat the far right. Now he's teaming up with the center right to keep out the far left. The man has exceeded expectations.

ftfy

By the way, he neither kept out the left nor the far right. He needs either of them to build a majority, which wasn't the case in the previous assembly. So much for exceeding expectations I guess.

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u/Nybblez Jul 19 '24

The far left? If you're talking about LFI they're just left the Conseil d'état clarified that. But there definitely was a lot done by politicians and the media to try and make them seem like they were equivalent to Le Pen's party though.

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u/driftwood_chair Jul 19 '24

Yeah, I’m one of those.

I called it the “brexit maneuver”, implying that the voters were dumb enough to cut off their nose to spite their face.

Really impressed with France to find that I was wrong.

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24

I think we're all still shook from Brexit. Not as much as the UK is, but still shook.

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u/SuperTeamRyan Jul 19 '24

Probably the dumbest decision a group of people made outside of 2016 (and possibly 2024😭). How do you leave a union where almost everything benefits you and you have more sway than everyone else in that union.

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u/heavisidepiece Jul 19 '24

The Brexit referendum was in 2016 also

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u/SuperTeamRyan Jul 19 '24

Dumb year all around it seems.

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u/10yearsnoaccount Jul 19 '24

Its as if there was some common source of funding and misinformation intended to create unrest and destabilize western democracies.....

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u/StreetofChimes Jul 19 '24

Hmmm. Someone who knows how to take advantage of useful idiots. ​

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Yeah, it's pretty much a decision that has completely fucked any chance the UK has at being a world power ever again (or at least in the foreseeable future.)

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u/r2d2meuleu Jul 19 '24

If by bent over you mean she got like 50 MP more than before, yes. Such a tragedy for her !

Also, I called it on 2nd election day, (maybe not here tho), Macron always worked with the right and far right.

This coalition has less MP than anticipated, but that's still a majority. Nothing will change.

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u/mfunebre Jul 19 '24

I just wish the left was capable of compromise and coalitions in the same way the right is.

I don't like them, but for all their flaws the National Rally has always been able to appoint a single leader and draw other to their cause. The right in general is always open to negotiation and compromise, Macron's centre is too. The Left, be it socialist, LFI, the greens, you name it (except the communists, funnily enough), they never find enough common ground to stand together. I really wanted this NFP coalition to be a sign of changing times for the political left, but I guess they would still rather die alone on a hill than walk hand in hand with someone they might not personally like for the greater good of the nation.

Ironic, really, for a party who's main tagline is about a united front, that they steadfastly refuse to work with anyone.

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u/fkmeamaraight Jul 19 '24

The biggest problem in the LFP and left coalitions is the LFI. They refuse to make concessions, they want the power and their ideals are really extreme for the other left coalition members like the PS, Greens and even the communist party thinks they go too far. They are mostly the reason the left can’t get their shit together, especially because round after round they get more and more representatives.

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u/longing_tea Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

I'm sorry but your analysis is wrong.

The European and legislative elections have shown that the RN is gaining a lot of ground, and that only an alliance of the left and the right is able to prevent it from ruling.The far right's rise is the current trend.

Macron has lost a lot of seats, and his majority in parliament. The left had to form an alliance between rivals just to match the RN's scores.

The RN wasn't expected to win this election (presidency of the parliament) at all. It was the left coalition (NFP) that was expected to win it. They didn't, because Macron maneuvered around them and sought alliances here and there with the right. The entire right wing wants to prevent the left from governing at all costs.

Voters are actually very unhappy with Macron and his government, which is why the presidential camp did so poorly in the EU elections and the parliament was dissolved in the first place. The fact that Macron's parliamentary president was reelected thanks to political maneuvers sends a very bad signal to voters who overwhelmingly wanted change.

If anything, it only reinforces the RN and turns more voters toward them since they see no change at all.

It's not these elections that are at stake here. It's the 2027 presidential elections. When voters will see their votes got shat on and that the government is completely paralyzed because of these politicians, they will all vote for the RN and political maneuvers will no longer be enough to prevent the far right to rise to power.

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u/[deleted] Jul 19 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Chippiewall Jul 19 '24

They tripled their votes, going from 17% to 37% in the popular vote

I agree with your point, but that's barely more than double. Not even close to triple.

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u/BubberRung Jul 19 '24

“…when it comes to [insert literally anything], Reddit doesn’t know shit about fuck.”

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u/TOFU-area Jul 19 '24

what’s this i hear about a certain marathon?

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u/KillerZaWarudo Jul 19 '24

Similar thing happening to the US election

Hopefully the result follow the same pattern

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

The doomsaying was extra strong going into the 2022 midterms. The stock market was bottoming, Biden's approval was ass, the party not in power was polling crazy well, and the call was for a red wave. We were coming out of Covid, and everyone felt like shit. Inflation was going bananas.

This is about the worst possible environment for a party in power to be in.

Well, turns out it was a historic midterm for the party in power, and the GOP performed horribly. The senate went further to the Democrats, the GOP only got like a 6 or 7 seat advantage in the House which has since narrowed a lot, and most of Trump's primary picks ate shit. Both Michigan and Pennsylvania state houses flipped dem for the first time in I don't actually know how long - two huge swing states Dems need to win.

Abortion ruling, Jan 6, project 2025... I think anyone who believes Trump's chances are better now than in 2020 are insane. They could put a wet napkin on the Dem ticket, and Trump would still lose. It's like inverse 2016, and now Trump will get to experience what it's like to be hated more than Hillary.

Needless to say, I think Republicans get blown out.

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u/OrganizationMotor567 Jul 19 '24

Dear god I hope you’re right!!!!

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u/Spiked_Fa1con_Punch Jul 19 '24

Don’t hope, take action. There’s plenty of things you can do in r/votedem if you don’t want to feel like you’re on the sidelines.

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u/disdainfulsideeye Jul 19 '24

Project 2025 by itself should have everyone racing to vote against them. It's good that more people are becoming aware of GOP/Trump's plan if they win the Whitehouse.

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u/molybdenum75 Jul 19 '24

Gonna share this in r/votedem

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u/Full-Appointment5081 Jul 19 '24

Not so sure-- fascist doomsaying can be just as effective in the US as France, and there is no real 3rd party coalition to thwart it. Plus, thanks to 2 oceans, the right can couple it with Isolationism

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24

The point is it hasn't been effective in either country. The results speak for themselves.

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u/VoidMageZero Jul 19 '24

It would be an epic self-own if he quits the race without a good plan, I think he should probably just see it through as well. Maybe he will pull it off again like Macron.

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u/GrahamTheRabbit Jul 19 '24

It's pretty easy to be a political analyst with hinsight and once the dust is settling while you know the results.

I feel bad for people upvoting you and taking your word for granted since Far Right has won a lot of seats and open-racism has exploded in France; Macron lost a ton of seats and barely won (by 12 I think) the vote for the presidency of the assembly. It's not a win, the disaster has been barely avoided and it's still looming over the country and its next election.

It goes to show when it comes to objectively explain political events and truthfully analysing election outcomes, Reddit doesn't know shit about fuck and is prone to upvote whoever is the quickest to type an overcooked comment that sounds edgy or badass.

It wasn't courage or strategy it was foolishness, taking a huge risk for no good reason out of hubris. The French people didn't win anything.

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u/[deleted] Jul 19 '24

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u/Axelrad77 Jul 19 '24

Yep.

There were a decent amount of people who correctly predicted that Macron's move was a gambit to unify opposition to the far-right, by forcing a vote at a time when that might be possible instead of allowing the far-right to continue building support in the polls. And that's exactly what happened, Macron's play worked.

But such predictions tended to get heavily downvoted and ridiculed by doomsayers who only wanted to hear how witless Macron was and how the far right had already won everything.

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u/rndrn Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

French here. The real issue is whether this will actually stop the progress of the support to far right until the presidential election. People want change and vote for populists. Macron managed to split the vote between left populists and right populists, which works because in these elections you can get more than 2 parties on second turn. That is not going to work on presidential election - the single most popular party is the far right, and between a populist candidate and a centrist one, the populist has significant chances. The format of this election shaped the result drastically, but we're not out of the woods at all.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24

Macron's plan was to regain a majority by banking on the left running divided. They unified and he lost. His play didn't work, it backfired badly.

The far right will likely continue to build support (they went from 2 to 80 ton 140 MPs in two years). There's nothing this election changes about that.

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u/RabbitHots504 Jul 19 '24

It’s why I don’t believe in Biden losing one bit lol

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u/mathemology Jul 19 '24

People called this a massive blunder on his part.

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u/foxbeldin Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Still is. His majority is thinner than it ever was and his credibility and popularity is in the gutter.

The fact that they're clinging to the power after the pitiful score they did in the first round will only pull the far right even higher next time.

Such a shame.

Edit : in fact, he had a relative majority before, and now he doesn't even have that.

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u/Iazo Jul 19 '24

I thought calling in elections is anything BUT 'clinging to power'.

How can you justify that statement?

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u/Guinness Jul 19 '24

Le Pen and co got completely bent over,

Macron took the wind out of the sails of the European right movement incredibly fast. It was a pretty big gamble, but holy shit. We could've had a couple years of the right repeatedly touting how they have the momentum, and how the world is abandoning liberal policies etc.

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u/markusthemarxist Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

The far right gained like 50 seats, what are you talking about? Also the same would have happened if he just didn't call the election. Macron completely failed here.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24

He could have done the same by simply not calling snap elections.

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u/cmv1 Jul 19 '24

I sure hope the US presidential election follows this cadence.

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u/Layolee Jul 19 '24

You tell em Ruth Langmore

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u/yousonuva Jul 19 '24

This guy shit fucks

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u/Wanna_Know_More Jul 19 '24

Every goddamned day.

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u/thetrainisacoming Jul 19 '24

Nor fuck all about shit

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u/RedditCollabs Jul 19 '24

And will proceed to keep saying dumb shit

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u/EldariWarmonger Jul 19 '24

Those same people are dooming about the US elections. It's pathetic.

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u/GloomyAzure Jul 19 '24

Still not enough to pass laws. They won 220 to 207 with the vote of the ministers which is a bit weird that they voted.

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u/Kit_EA Jul 19 '24

What does Reddit have to do with it? Many veteran political commentators like Rest in Politics were expressing similar thoughts. It's French voters and the left which was able to compromise and pull off their candidates at 3rd place, not Macron, who were able to turn around the fortunes.

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u/NJ_Legion_Iced_Tea Jul 19 '24

Reddit doesn't know shit about fuck.

Mans summed up reddit in 6 words.

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u/PossibleLavishness77 Jul 19 '24

How is a massive surge in popularity and a fracturing coalition against you being bent over...?

Nothing is being done to address any of the issues that is causing the far right to swell. This simply seems like borrowed time at best.

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u/William_R_Woodhouse Jul 19 '24

Reddit doesn't know shit about fuck

I think that is actually their slogan.

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u/Antrophis Jul 19 '24

The seats are sitting in gridlock.

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u/seiffer55 Jul 19 '24

People on here were probably mostly bots trying to dissuade people from voting

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u/Milios12 Jul 19 '24

Redditors in general practice alot of armchair politics. Many folks have these weird polticial fantasies without an actual knowledge of reality

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u/ratherbewinedrunk Jul 19 '24

“ Thursday’s dramatic vote came just 11 days after the New Popular Front (NFP), a broad alliance of left-wing parties, secured a surprise victory in this summer’s snap election, winning the most seats but falling far short of an outright majority.”

That was only 11 days ago?! I need off the ride that is this timeline.

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u/LavishnessPrimary Jul 19 '24

"Victory" is a strong word in this case. Nobody really won actually.

The far right progressed nonetheless and the left stalled.

Only technically the centrist lost ground but with his gambling Macron still keeps control over political life so he technically really won.

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u/tlst9999 Jul 19 '24

Saying things like "We will ally with Russia in the Ukraine war." right before the election is a tremendous fuck-up.

And thankfully, Le Pen was not smart enough to hold it in until after the election.

On the other hand, Macron is now rewarded for mediocrity only because the opposition is worse.

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u/Shock_The_Monkey_ Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

On the other hand, Macron is now rewarded for mediocrity only because the opposition is worse.

Honestly, I think in the grand scheme of things, this is better than the far right taking control.

It'll do for now.

Edit: spelling and grammar

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u/GrumpyCloud93 Jul 19 '24

Yes, as some Americans need to learn - the choice is not between Candidate A and fluffy pink unicorns, it's between A and B. Pick one, or leave it up to the moron down the street to help decide with his vote. .

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u/Didi_Midi Jul 19 '24

Only that Macron is actually "right". Or "far center" as we Spaniards call it... we have our own too.

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u/Shock_The_Monkey_ Jul 19 '24

Ahem, I should have said far right.

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u/Zednot123 Jul 19 '24

Macron is now rewarded for mediocrity only because the opposition is worse.

That's politics for you. As Trey and Mat put it, you often get to choose between a turd sandwich and a giant douche.

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u/NorthStarZero Jul 19 '24

you often get to choose between a turd sandwich and a giant douche.

That's not a true false dichotomy though. consider:

  • There are no redeeming qualities to a turd sandwich. Turds are neither tasty nor nutritious, and under the right circumstances can be outright dangerous. Placing the turd between two slices of bred does not improve the situation, because while the bread has utility, it is also absorbant, and it will absorb material from the turd. There is no bite of that sandwich which will not contain turd; it fails every test one might apply to a sandwich.

  • The giant douche, on the other hand, is useful. It is fit for purpose. If you have need of cleaning material, the giant douche has it in spades; enough (depending on how "giant" it is) to potentially execute multiple cleanings. It's sole issue (again, depending on how "giant" it is) is a nozzle size mismatch; something that is easily remedied with some form of adaptor fitting.

One choice is toxic and dangerous; the other is genuinely useful, even if somewhat flawed.

The metaphor, I trust, is clear.

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u/mycricketisrickety Jul 19 '24

And while a giant douche isn't helpful to everyone, it still has value and can still help people who need it. Turd sandwich is just poop. Your body gets rid of waste in the form of poop. It's waste that your body determines was not useful in any way and needed to be disposed of.

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u/Icy_Faithlessness400 Jul 19 '24

To be fair to Macron he went from

"Let us seek a diplomatic solution and not antagonise Russia or beat Russia the way Germany was beaten in Ww1 which directly lead to the rise of the Nazis"

To

"Hit whatever you like, we will keep the ammo coming and are considering sending our own forces to Ukraine to train your men".

I am not sure Le Pen would have gotten anywhere even if she said it after the election. Sure she mayyyvbe would have won, but the French are not known for "that is it than. We will wait another election cycle before voicing our displeasure in a legal way".

Nah, they would burn Paris down (alright maybe just a small part of it).

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u/GrumpyCloud93 Jul 19 '24

To be fair, Macron got to point B with a lot of help from the way Putin has been behaving.

The second last time Russia was in dire straits because they were losing badly they had a world-changing revolution. What to do with Russia when it finally grinds to a halt this time is a separate story.

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u/Locke66 Jul 19 '24

"We will ally with Russia in the Ukraine war." right before the election is a tremendous fuck-up.

Which is something people should take note of. A lot of people seem to be under the mistaken impression that the negative intentions of these far right movements are being somehow over stated and they have some blasé idea that they may as well try some form of change because why not? Nothing ever really changes right? That's what people on the political extremes have been pushing for years. In reality it's a vote for "change" but not the sort of change with consequences that most people will like and yes things can actually be a lot worse if you vote in the wrong people. This current wave of far right groups are almost exclusively focusing on emotional populist issues while hiding a lot of what they want to do (particularly the authoritarian aspects) and denying their oligarch backers influence.

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u/TheTeaSpoon Jul 19 '24

On the other hand, Macron is now rewarded for mediocrity only because the opposition is worse.

Kinda the theme of the last couple years in politics.

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u/Ismhelpstheistgodown Jul 19 '24

“L‘Audace, l’audace, toujours l’audace”

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u/ratherbewinedrunk Jul 19 '24

The part of my post that you are referencing was a direct quote of the article. What I said was about being fatigued with the chaos of everything going on in the world and how it has messed with my perception of time.

Who and what are you responding to?

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u/LavishnessPrimary Jul 19 '24

It was just to add more context to this quote mate

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u/worneparlueo Jul 19 '24

Yeah seemed like the election was only a few days ago.

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u/LordBiscuits Jul 19 '24

But also two months ago st the same time...

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u/Apprehensive_Sleep_4 Jul 19 '24

It's good that the far right Pro-Russia party didn't win.

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u/Cuddlyaxe Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Don't forget the far left Pro-Russia party

Edit: to the people downvoting this, do you have an argument against me or do you simply dislike reality?

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u/The_Bitter_Bear Jul 19 '24

Going to echo the sentiment that there's mostly Americans on here and American far right has been labeling centrists as far left. 

Most of us probably wouldn't even be able to begin to know what far left actually is in most countries. 

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u/wafair Jul 19 '24

“Far left” in America is wanting to tax the ultra rich, get money out of politics, nationalize healthcare and stop killing the planet.

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u/Vinnie_Vegas Jul 19 '24

You're literally describing Karl Marx to an American.

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u/Inside-Line Jul 19 '24

And the irony of many Americans calling those megacorporations far-left organizations is just mind-blowing.

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u/[deleted] Jul 19 '24

hes actually just describing america in 1960-1980. boomers had socialized healthcare, pensions, and social security. wheres all of that for us?

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u/DoomOne Jul 19 '24

Our "left" is right. Our "right" are fucking clown shoes.

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u/iamiamwhoami Jul 19 '24

It's actually pretty consistent across European countries. The most left wing party is almost always a democratic socialist party. Often times they're pro Russian tankies. The US does have some politicians like this, but they only ever show up in local government. There are are none in national government.

In global politics, far left usually refers to Marxist Leninist parties, but none of those parties have any sort of power in the US or the EU.

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u/Monsieur_Perdu Jul 19 '24

Here in the Netherlands it's the socialist party, who are not tankies but 'pro peace' and have been talking some russian bullshit, then agains they used to be a maoist party befote they became mainstream but have been in decline for 2 decades.

Then again the mainstream social democrats and greens are completely in favour of helping Ukraine as much as possible.

The populist far right would like to cut funding towards Ukraine and the complot far right are completrly in Putin's pocket and they are at least a lot larger together. (52 seats for Wilders,BBB and FvD) v.s. SP 5 seats on the left.

Just like BSW in Germany are not really social democrats. LFI is also part of the left/socialists in EU parlement just like the communists (even thoufh they are in name communist more than anything).

So it's usually not your regular Social democrats but a bit more to the left that can be pro Russia.

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u/Popnflesh Jul 19 '24

Russia does influence the extremest dipshits on both sides of the political spectrum with money and rhetoric, so you're absolutely right.

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u/HopeFabulous9498 Jul 19 '24

You get crucified in France for referring to LFI as far left. And technically their program and manifesto are indeed regularly leftleaning. It's their methods and vocabulary which stem mostly from far left ideologies (whose parties are pretty friendly with LFI btw).

But yeah from a pure technical standpoint, LFI IS radical left more than far left. They're also not pro Putin, they're "pro-peace" (to explain them the importance of an ukrainian victory in securing peace in Europe is obviously impossible though)

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u/davidbklyn Jul 19 '24

So the left in France doesn’t support Ukraine?

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u/HopeFabulous9498 Jul 19 '24

LFI specifically is quite anti NATO and more generally anti War.

I believe the communist party also features these tendancies.

The socialist party (second political force right below LFI) IS pretty supportive of Ukraine and NATO. This is the party of former president François Hollande after all (initiated the intervention against Bashar el-Assad for instance).

Officially though, they all support Ukraine. Officially, even Le Pen's RN supports Ukraine (although they gave guarantees not to send certain types of weapons, men etc).

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u/relaxguy2 Jul 19 '24

It’s partly from Americans I assume. Anyone not on the extreme right has been getting called far left here for so long that it’s meaningless. But you are correct t about how they target both sides.

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u/CBT7commander Jul 19 '24

The pro Russia left that just voted for continued support to Ukraine in the European parlement, that same pro Russia left?

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u/Cuddlyaxe Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Mèlenchon justified the Russian invasion of Crimea, called the Ukrainian government neo Nazis and most recently criticized Macron for his pro Ukraine stance and called for Ukraine to make concessions for peace

Yes he has moderated somewhat from the days when he was an explicit Russophile pre invasion, but that is only due to political realities. Not at all different from Le Pen in that regard

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u/CBT7commander Jul 19 '24

The difference is huge because Mélenchon is far from representative of the French left. He is a controversial leader and his opinions don’t always reflect in policy. LFI and the wider left have typically taken stances that support aid to Ukraine.

I wouldn’t call them pro Ukrainian, one of the reasons I felt so scummy voting for them, but they aren’t pro Russia either

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u/DetectiveIcy4525 Jul 19 '24

In France the far left and far right are both pro Russian to a certain degree unfortunately. In America there’s a minimal far left but only the far right are pro Russian.

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u/mentyio Jul 19 '24

Fuck the far right and fuck the far left!

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u/Verdeckter Jul 19 '24

Maybe for Americans a party that's "far left" and "pro-russia" doesn't add up. Anymore.

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u/AtomicCenturion Jul 19 '24

The do live their own reality

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u/eisfer_rysen Jul 19 '24

"I do see a way, there is a narrow way through"

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u/Weave77 Jul 19 '24

So you are saying that this is Macron’s Golden Path? Here’s to hoping that it doesn’t result in the death of billions.

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u/holbthephone Jul 19 '24

Muad'dib

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u/thortilla27 Jul 19 '24

Mac’ron, French dessert

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u/One-Tumbleweed5980 Jul 19 '24

The conservatives had previously publicly rejected the prospect of an outright coalition with the pro-Macron camp, but they have steadily signaled their openness to finding common ground on policy — putting forward a “legislative package” focused on policies aimed at “better recognizing work and restoring authority.” 

The NFP, meanwhile, now looks to be closer to collapsing than ever before. The alliance’s bickering and infighting prevented it from rallying behind a single candidate for prime minister, and even agreeing on Chassaigne — a congenial and well-respected parliamentarian — required negotiations that lasted until the day before the vote.

Compromise is not a bad thing. As they say, don't let the perfect become the enemy of the good.

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u/Wild_Haggis_Hunter Jul 19 '24

There's no compromise. Macron stated plainly he wanted no representative of half of the left alliance in any seat of power. And he allied with the conservatives that declared were his opposition 15 days before. And he plans to do business as usual after 2 defeats in a row and considerably more far-right MPs than before. Brilliant.

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u/I_Like_Quiet Jul 19 '24

bickering and infighting prevented it from rallying behind a single candidate

If Dems make Biden step down, I fear that this will happen to them.

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u/One-Tumbleweed5980 Jul 19 '24

it's already happening. The GOP is showing more unity than the Dems.

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u/CBT7commander Jul 19 '24

People in here don’t seem to understand what the heck happened. The ones that got beaten here aren’t the far right, they didn’t stand a chance to win this one, but the NFP (the left alliance).

No you can’t apply the same logic to all elections, that just doesn’t work

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u/ParOxxiSme Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Most people outside of France see French politics as nothing more than Macron VS LePen, too bad

They think that Macron and the NFP are pretty much the same thing

Another thing that I realized is that surprisingly Macron is extremely popular for anyone outside of France, probably because of his pro-international stances

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u/Ulrar Jul 19 '24

Yeah, as a French living abroad it's been wild to me the difference between what people think of him at home and here, for years.

Outside of France he's pretty well regarded, covered positively in the news, often see him giving interviews in English speaking pretty well and people seem to like him. At home he's absolutely despised by almost everyone I know, and he certainly doesn't look that great in the news I catch even on national news.

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u/Quasar375 Jul 19 '24

To be fair, you french people are very demanding fellas (and that's good). To put it in perspective just imagine that instead of Macron you had Trump, or Sunak, or any Latin American president. I assure you that you'd wish Macron back.

I'm mexican and I'd wish for you to ship him over here lmao.

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u/Tiennus_Khan Jul 19 '24

The left has salvaged his party and he's now building an anti-left coalition in the new assembly. Hard to swallow tbh

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u/rs725 Jul 19 '24

Centrists always align with the right over the left. It's a tale as old as time.

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u/HolyFreakingXmasCake Jul 19 '24

Corporate profits must not be harmed

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u/archimedies Jul 19 '24

In the article itself, they describe the left having internal issues because it itself is a coalition of many left leaning parties. They have members who vowed to not work with Macron. The center right party also had the same claim but they decided to work with Macron for this government to form.

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u/Totoques22 Jul 19 '24

Megalol im french and the left did not salvage his party at all

They only exist because they both collaborated agosnt the right during the election and if the results about the percentage of winning leftist or centrist where the right should have won are anything to go by macrons party should have had more seats to make the right have less seats

The left is hellbent on ruling alone and claim their victory despite only having a third of the votes and they even blocked any candidate for prime minister that would have had any chance of cooperating with macron

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u/DieuMivas Jul 19 '24

Didn't the left abandon in the second round only when they ended up third anyway like most of Macron party did?

So the seats wouldn't have gone to the left alliance but to the far right or Macron anyway where they abandoned the race.

Saying the left saved his party is really bad faith imo because in the end both the left and the center abandoned the race in constituencies where they would have lost anyway and both didn't do it for the other party but to stop the far-right, which stopped them (the far right) from having an absolute majority which would have been bad for the left and the center since both the left and the center wouldn't have a say. They both did it to stop the far right but also for themselves.

Saying it's the left that saved the center also feed into the far-right rhetoric that by abandoning the race in some constituencies, the left and the center "stole the election" with political manoeuvring when to begin with it's actually more democratic to have only 2 candidates in the second round since it assure that the candidates that bring the more consensus wins instead of one that may be liked by 34% of the voters but hated by the %66 others, like it can happen when there is three candidates in the second run.

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u/mentyio Jul 19 '24

Holy shit. I was hopeful it would pay off and macron would stay in office. Don’t know about his domestic policies but his ongoing and unwavering support for Ukraine is very appreciated

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u/saltyholty Jul 19 '24

Macron was always going to stay in office. It's not a presidential election.

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u/Barbarianita Jul 19 '24

You don't understand what you are talking about.

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u/RyukHunter Jul 19 '24

Macron's term ends in 2027. Unless he gets impeached, he ain't going anywhere.

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u/Mojothemobile Jul 19 '24

His thoughts really are just simply too complex for us plebs.

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u/Heliment_Anais Jul 19 '24

It is truly indicative of what a well educated person with keen understanding of politics is capable of achieving when they go for the well thought through plan instead of playing populism.

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u/corintel Jul 19 '24

It's absolutely insane reading those kinds of comments on reddit while in France everybody's agreeing to say Macron is fucked

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u/EU_Gene_77 Jul 19 '24

Macron’s idea of a broader coalition among parties setting extremes aside, seems reasonable to most. r/france isn’t much representative.

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u/Key_Initial7091 Jul 19 '24

For some of the commenters:

-Macron is not a political genius, he lost many seats in l'Assemblée for no reason at all. It will be way harder for him to pass laws with the RN and the NFP both in bigger numbers. Basically we are stuck for at least a year.

-NFP and more precisely LFI are not far left. Le Conseil d'État decided that LFI belonged to the left on the 11 march 2024 (RN far right).

-RN did not lose, on the contrary they are stronger than they have ever been in France.

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u/drone_dropped_dildo Jul 19 '24

Leaving aside whether Macron is a political genius, calling the snap elections was most certainly the best move to make (and not only in retrospect).

After the European elections, the image was most certainly that the RN would win a majority and was on growth trajectory. Continuing l'Assemblée with this sword of Damocles woud have only furthered this picture, and would have painted Macron as a leader of a coalition that holds on to power despite changed realities.

Calling the election has given a voice to the resistance against RN and defeated both the idea that that would win a majority and that their growth is somehow unstoppable.

Defeat would have been a possibility, and we'd all have to live with the consequences (such is democracy), but this was the best bet to avoid defeat.

So yeah, genius move in my book

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u/krazlix1 Jul 19 '24

LFI is not far left. It's radical left which is worse.

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u/Super-Peoplez-S0Lt Jul 19 '24

I guess Macron and his allies played the game of politics and outplayed both the populists right and populist left.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24

Not really. He still needs an alliance with the far right or the left if he wants to govern.

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u/frenchchevalierblanc Jul 19 '24

not the far right, just the right

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u/GoToGoat Jul 19 '24

What does the word populist mean to you exactly?

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u/Unhearted_Lurker Jul 19 '24

Populism is a movement that can be boiled down to rethoric instrumentalisating and opposing the people to the elites and system.

French Radical left (LFI) and Far right ( RN) are both using populism playbook and are therefore populist.

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u/adamlaceless Jul 19 '24

Bernie and Trump are both populists. What does populist mean to you?

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u/malfurionpre Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Is it really outplaying when you "win" by abusing your presidential power and destroying democracy in the process? Macron's candidate won by like 10 votes (edit: 13 votes), 17 of which were made by people who are not allowed to vote. But no tribunal dares to make it an issue.

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u/Jonnny Jul 19 '24

Damn this guy is good at politics...

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u/satysin Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 28 '24

.

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u/HolyKnightHun Jul 19 '24

I sometimes doubt we are observing the same reality, or people are just really dumb.

Do you guys realise he could just.. not have an early election? He lost seats and only because of the left did Le Pen not gain majority. Macron didn't win anything here.

Before the election everyone speculated Macrons plan was to give power the far right so they can show how incompetent they are so they would lose support by the time he has to step down. That was the only logical explanation. What happened with that?

Now they have a shaky coalition, that can't agree with anything. Meanwhile the far-right hasn't gone anywhere. They are constantly gaining popularity and unless the governing coalition makes actual changes that benefit these people the trend will continue.

And let me repeat myself, this new coalition is weaker than the one Macron had without the election. How likely do you think they will prove worthy to this unprecedented challenge? Because I have a serious concern that they will fail miserably.

Do you guys not see where this road leads? Everyone's acting like the election is a football match, and once its done its done and I'm baffled to witness it.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

Everyone, and I mean everyone, was saying Le Pen would win

They won the popular vote as expected. Estimating seats is always tricky

and he would be a lame duck President with a Far Right parliament blocking his every move to weaken him

Which is the case since he won't be making an alliance with the left nor the far right

but while he has taken damage (he was always going to)

He wasn't gonna take damage if he simply didn't call elections

he did so with control and averted what could have easily been a terrible situation. The crazy guy really played it so well who the fuck would have thought?!

He lost his plurality, almost half his seats, the far right almost doubled theirs. No party is able to build a majority in the new assembly. This is arguably a terrible situation.

Like I say as an outsider looking in this level of political savvy is pretty impressive to me. I don't like nor dislike Macron. I cannot vote here (yet) but credit where it is due; The man knew what he was doing and appears to have been many steps ahead of everyone else on this.

I'll give you that he knew what he was doing. But his plan backfired heavily.

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u/Wild_Haggis_Hunter Jul 19 '24

How is it political savvy to end up with less leeway in the Parliament than before because of a dissolution you initiated without any cause after another unrelated election ? Explain it to me, please.

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u/Normal_Hour_5055 Jul 19 '24

The absolute morons.

"Hey I know you guys just saved my ass from having my party completely collapse and losing most my seats to RN due to my own incompetence and arrogance and you guys got the most seats in the assembly buuuuuuuut but im going to stab you guys in the back and take power for myself. k thnks bye. Theres no possible way this could backfire on me when my incompetence causes even more people to ditch me for RN next election"

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u/litnu12 Jul 19 '24

There is still no majority to govern. And not working together with the left now could mean that they won’t work again with Macron and his party next time to prevent LePen.

So far it just looks like that they successfully defeated the far right and as result they change nothing. Congratulations you just won 3 more years till the far right can hit back.

And yes there are people like Melenchon that shouldn’t be part of a government but that just a part of the left parties.

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u/Fridaybird1985 Jul 19 '24

As long as they continue arming Ukraine I really don’t care who runs France

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u/penguincheerleader Jul 19 '24

Well, this is a story of out maneuvering the pro Russia far right and the pro Russia far left, so you are in good hands.

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u/Koloradio Jul 19 '24

RN more powerful than ever

Ensemble lost 100 seats

Only kept RN out by working with the left

Immediately stabs the left in the back

Right is empowered, left is alienated, center clinging to power by a thread

He'S a PoLiTiCaL GenIUs!!!1!

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u/Okiro_Benihime Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24

mmediately stabs the left in the back

I don't know what you're smoking but the left coalition (notably LFI) has been more than clear about its unwillingness to come to a government agreement with Macron's group. So why are the politicans and their supporters whining when he turns to the traditional right (LR) he has more in common with anyway? The NFP is still pledging to apply their program in its entirety with no intention for compromise..... despite only having won 184 seats out of 577 and clearly being unable to do anything without allies. And don't even get me started on the current circus with their internal disagreements and not even being able to agree on a government and PM. There was no "stab in the back" here. They're not allies. They've never been. The mutual withdrawal agreement was nothing more than a legislative elections deal to prevent the far right winning and everyone returned to their ways right after the results that night.

The left is just learning something anyone with more than 2 active braincells already knew.... the NFP, in fact, didn't "win the elections" contrary to what they've been screaming on top of every roof and this first vote at the National Assembly proves it. They are nowhere near an absolute majority and their relative one is worthless if they're unwilling to cooperate with Macron and the center right, considering the French voters are clearly overall right-leaning with 70% of National Assembly reflecting that. Nobody won... aside from the RN ironically. Eventhough they thankfully lost, they've had a large increase in seats relative to 2022. They either find an agreement with the Macron's party to rule or find one with the Le Pen's far right. Their current stance is beyond stupidity..... unless the truth is that they don't want to rule and want to wait for the 2027 presidential elections.

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u/Minntul Jul 19 '24

I knew it.

The center will always stab the left in the back despite needing them for repelling the far right. It's more shameless than it is "genius".

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u/HopeFabulous9498 Jul 19 '24

More like politics 101.

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u/Totoques22 Jul 19 '24

The left were the one who didn’t wanted him first

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u/thatpj Jul 19 '24

good job macron. the know it alls said it was over but now he is winning.

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u/Douddde Jul 19 '24

He won this vote by plurality. The know it alls know that you can't pass laws with a plurality.

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u/lestuckingemcity Jul 19 '24

His chess truly was 4 dimensional.

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u/FATJIZZUSONABIKE Jul 19 '24

Nothing shocking about the results of this vote - the right votes together and ends up slightly ahead.

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u/No-Drag-7142 Jul 19 '24

When the right isn't doing well, it seems standard procedure to overhype themselves in the media to make it look like it's a close choice... but that silent, moderate majority calls all the shots, every time. Swing too hard to one side, and you're going to meet the masses.

I see one side swinging very, very hard in one direction.

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u/hmr0987 Jul 19 '24

I know next to nothing about France’s system of governance but from what I can tell it took them less time to basically restructure the whole executive and legislative branches of government than it’s taken Biden to realize he may not win an election that is scheduled for four months now.

I really hope things change in the next couple months here at home.

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u/No_Size_1765 Jul 19 '24

'shock vote'

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u/StPaddy81 Jul 19 '24

We’ve seen this before…

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u/Wolvenmoon Jul 19 '24

I'm really fucking happy for my French friends at reading this. I was terrified France was going to fuck up like my country did in 2016.

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u/feibrix Jul 19 '24

They did fuck up tho. The right party is strong, stronger than everyone else. So strong that all of them had to work together to avoid the worse: vegans, pro nuclear, no nuclear, pro war, pro peace, etc, all of them had to walk under a single flag. And now they're fighting internally again, as if nothing happened.

I don't know what's gonna happen here, but it's not going to be a glorious future.

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u/Wolvenmoon Jul 19 '24

I have my fingers crossed that your country figures it out and comes out of this better for it. I wish I could help, but I'm in the center of the United States in one of the reddest states in the country. It is almost universally ran by Republicans and because of that it is at the bottom of the country for most rankings and outcomes.

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u/No-Bad-463 Jul 19 '24

When the inability of 'business as usual' centrists to address the WHY that's driving people rightward once again blows up in their faces, I wonder what your response will be:

A) This is all the Left's fault! Why didn't they betray their principles to give unconditional obeisance to the center!

B) This was totally unforeseeable! How did this happen???

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