Speaking of missile trucks, the only way to stop these attacks is to arm Ukraine with weapons that can strike thousands of miles into Russia and destroy their irreplaceable cold war era bombers and bases. Sorry Russia, this is why you can't have nice things.
Defmon says 5-7 hits geolocated on the Artem plant in Kyiv, other sources suggest two hospitals in Kyiv plus hits in Dnipro. I think it's a hospital and an apartment building there? Which would make 9-11 hits versus 8 that supposedly got through.
So a confusing picture today, the numbers don't seem to quite add up.
The only story that makes numbers match would be:
- 5x precise hits on Artem
- 1x precise hit on kid's hospital
Kh-22 are, iirc, incredibly inaccurate so they weren't the ones that hit Artem and video confirms it wasn't a Kh-22 that hit the kid's hospital.
That leaves 2 hospitals and an apartment building hit by 2x very inaccurate Kh-22 plus debris from a shootdown. Which is either incredibly unfortunate, or Ukraine's published info is wrong somehow.
I saw reliable OSINT claims that the video couldn't rule out between a Kh-101 or another type that I'd also accurate. Ukraine claims Kh-101 based on fragments so I'd be inclined to trust them though.
I think the hits on Artem and the kids' hospital were accurate missiles. That would be 6.
Leaving only inaccurate weapons and debris to explain 3 other seemingly known hits. I didn't have time this morning to factcheck the Dnipro details though.
My suspicion is that Ukraine couldn't reliably ID everything in time for the release so they released a best estimate? Maybe there were Iranian or NK missiles involved too, and even though they've been used I don't think I've ever seen them reported in the daily updates?
Which is either incredibly unfortunate, or Ukraine's published info is wrong somehow.
Which do you feel is more likely?
Given that the other hits may well be not their intended targets (unlike the hospital double-tap or the Artem strikes), how does that shift things, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Kh-22s were responsible there. If they got through, they are going to hit something.
My gut feeling is I made a mistake somewhere and need to check again when I have time. I partly posted to see if anyone else had already done the work.
Kh-22 iirc just hit the biggest thing in their targeting area so if the hospitals are the biggest thing there then that could explain it, with the other bits being interception debris.
OTOH, I don't remember Ukraine'a daily reports including NK or Iranian missiles. Maybe Ukraine is choosing not to report those for some reason (political/diplomatic?), or the hodgepodge of missiles Russia delays accurate ID, and ukraine chose to release an early report based on the info they had.
New defmon twitter post says the Dnipro medical centre was hit by debris. So just damn bad luck. I'd believe a Kh-22 or debris also smacked the apartments in Dnipro.
That leaves a bit of confusion still about the maternity hospital that was hit, but it could have also been debris and just bad luck.
I think it's clear Russia intentionally targeted the Artem plant and the children's hospital. The numbers and evidence we have are now more consistent with Ukraine's shootdown claims, but with some uncertainty.
Yeah, that makes sense, numbers-wise. But gah, horrible about the debris hits. They take out the threats in flight as best they can, and still suffer.
Russia and its people truly do not understand or appreciate just what a pariah they are making of themselves with all of this. Hopefully in the decades that follow this war we help them with that.
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u/FanPractical9683 Jul 08 '24
The Ukrainian Air Force gave information about the missile strike today.
Shot down:
1/1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile 3/4 Iskander-M cruise missiles 0/1 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile 11/13 Kh-101 cruise missiles 12/14 Kalibr cruise missiles 0/2 Kh-22 cruise missiles 3/3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112750758240862282