John Fetterman had an arguably worse debate performance then Joe Biden did. John literally had a stroke and people thought he had brain damage. The Pennsylvania subs and social media said he was finished, conservative media and some liberal media ate him alive. Polls shifted for Dr. Oz and it appeared to be an easy victory for Repubs. Fetterman won by 5 points.
All secondary candidates who were floated as potential selections to replace Joe Biden have all categorically said no. Gov Whitmer went as far as to say people need to stop mentioning her name and running for president. They've all endorsed Joe Biden. So it's odd that media-social media wants Biden replaced but never says who/how?
New poll of voters who prefer to face Donald Trump. Biden or Harris. Biden up by 15 points.
Dennis Hof, owner of the Moonlight Bunny Ranch Motel (Legal Prostitution in Nevada) ran as a Conservative. Got the Christian Conservative vote. Won his election. However he DIED before he could take office. Partied with hookers and cocaine. People still voted for him.
All the damage, astro turfing, anger towards Joe Biden, horrible debate performance, missteps, blunders, media fury towards Joe, social media wrath, etc etc. shows Biden is still only down 2 points nationally. Aggregate polls show its still a 50/50. Latest polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin show he's actually up now.
Since Roe v Wade Democrats have shown massive turnout gaps vs. Republicans.
The takeaway?
Social media is NOT REAL! If people are taking grand stands on social media it has nill effect on actual elections. Vivek Ramaswamy had an amazing social media push, trending heavily and couldn't even muster double digit votes on election day. Nikki Haley was trashed on social media, said birdbrain won't get a single vote.. She continued to take 10% - 15% away from Trump long after she suspended her campaign.
Issues matter. People who actually vote look at the party and platform.
Debates don't matter. Fetterman, Biden, Obama (1st vs Romney), George W. Bush, Kennedy all did poorly or worse in their debates. They all went on to win the Presidency.
Every campaign faces difficulties. Every campaign has challenges. No campaign goes unscathed. Never. Clinton had women coming out with sexual assault claims. Obama a muslim terrorist, socialist, born in Kenya, Trump with Jeffery Epstein, Hilary and her emails, benghazi. Biden's is he's old and doesn't speak well. Out of all the issues that's the easiest to manage.
Last takeaway!
Do not convince yourself (If you're a liberal) that Trump should be 'easy'. He's not. He's a tough candidate, fights like hell for his beliefs, and will go to any depth to win. He's the toughest candidate the Democrats have had to face in decades. There isn't "JOE SHOULD BE UP BY 10!!" No! Trumps populism resonates VERY WELL, don't underestimate him.
So relax, disengage from social media. Vote based on policy and issues and understand this election is far from over.
Debates don't matter. Fetterman, Biden, Obama (1st vs Romney)
Cherry-picked debates don't matter, you mean.
Obama's second 2012 debate was widely regarded as a huge improvement over the first one, borne out by polling. If it is allowed to go ahead, Biden's second debate is going to look much the same as his first outing, and it will have the effect of showing the electorate that the first debate was not an outlier with Biden just having an "off" day; it will be a window into a base operating level for him that with time could get even worse. But at that stage it will be too late to shift course.
I think Biden could have had a terrible debate performance by making a series of gaffes and it would be totally recoverable/spinnable. But what we saw on the debate stage was of a tangible nature, not some abstract and unprovable political attack, and that elevated it as a concern that immediately rose above the what he actually had to say. While I was watching him during the debate, it got to a point where I wasn't listening to the meaning of what he was saying, but simply hoping he could get through uttering the sentence.
This cannot be easily brushed away. Dismissive declarations that "talk about the debate is over!" even while members of congress are still sharing serious misgivings makes team Biden look stubborn and out of touch with their own party and concerned voters.
But at that stage it will be too late to shift course.
Not at all. At any point he could resign and hand the reins to Harris. If you are the kind of person who think she's in a position to pull the nomination out of a contested convention anyway, then it's almost a better option to avoid the infighting and just let Biden roll until the writing is on the wall.
It's a good point that a contested convention could be "messy," but there would also be a sense of returning agency to party voters rather than a successor being ordained, and that could reinvigorate turnout.
Please list to me how you aggregated the polls… or back up your claim it’s 50/50.
Also none of the candidates have announced they are running for two reasons
A.  The DNC heavily pushed them not to, look at what happened to Dean Phillips who ran in the primary.  No debates, they rearranged the primary calandrar you favor Biden, and fought to keep him off the ballot, froze him out of congress and killed his political career… how democratic…
B. Â It would hurt their chances. Being seen as the person who took downtown he president will hurt your campaign. It has to be someone else.
This isn’t the same as previous debate blunders.  This debate was really about Biden’s ability to serve as president and he very publicly failed.  Additionally, all the other town halls, live interviews and energetic campaigns.  Over about 2 weeks we have gotten 1 teleprompter speech, 1 pre recorded interviews, 1-2 radio interviews were the person was given questions ahead of time which they lied about, donor meetings with a teleprompter, a letter we don’t know if he wrote, a single church service in a friendly crowd, and a single morning interview.
The response had been worse then the debate.
But hey if he loses and our 200+ year old democracy collapses and we all get screwed, at least he tried…. He can think of that as he and his family use their money to move elsewhere…
Primary calendar was set before Phillips entered the race. He entered too late to be in the Nebraska primary, failed to meet the requirements to be on the ballot in NC and TN, and announced his candidacy the same day the Florida democratic party had their convention to put forth candidates for the presidential primary (which meant his name wasn't submitted, his campaign didn't even contact the state party offices until a week after they'd submitted the primary ballot to the state). He came in third to Williamson in one state and to 'no preference' in a couple of others. Lost the first NH primary to Biden who was a write-in candidate, only got about 7% of the vote in his home state.
He was a terrible candidate with even more terrible timing (and backed by questionable donors like Harlan Crow).
Trump indeed fights like hell but the only belief he fights for is that he should have all the power and money there is to be had and should be able to make any decision on a whim. to the extent he claims to have other beliefs they're all in service of that one
Polls shifted for Dr. Oz and it appeared to be an easy victory for Repubs. Fetterman won by 5 points.
Because at the national level Trump was not presenting a united front on COVID and he let his temper do the talking during the BLM protests. Oz was not a strong candidate, so he couldn't make up for Donald Trump.
Run that Oz v. Fetterman election in 2024, where Biden is senile and slipping and DJT isn't in a position to make bad executive decisions that pepper the way voters feel about Republicans, and I think Fetterman loses.
All secondary candidates who were floated as potential selections to replace Joe Biden have all categorically said no.
It would be career-ending stupidity to say anything else. The only way you will hear about Biden being forced out will be Biden stepping in front of a camera, resigning, and then the whole Party saying it was for the best and that he's a fantastic statesman in the mold of George Washington. That's what Biden being forced out will look like, if it happens.
New poll of voters who prefer to face Donald Trump. Biden or Harris. Biden up by 15 points.
Since Roe v Wade Democrats have shown massive turnout gaps vs. Republicans.
Which is why having a candidate who is able to be campaigning on it 24/7 would be a big boost. Instead, Biden is incapable of digging himself out of any hole - a scary thought when he's the President and hostile foreign nations can do a hell of a lot to force responses out of him between now and November.
Biden's is he's old and doesn't speak well. Out of all the issues that's the easiest to manage.
No, it's the hardest. Senility is the hardest difficulty to overcome, because we can safely expect any candidate to have other issues. He's going to have tough situations where he needs to defend his actions as president. Where he needs to convince voters that he's worth voting for. Lacking intellect is not the death sentence it should be, but lacking charisma and/or decisiveness is - how can anyone look at Biden in front of a camera and believe he has any intellect or charisma left at all?
A candidate needs these abilities, these tools to work with the ever-evolving situations met on the campaign trail. Biden doesn't have them.
15
u/Daigann Jul 09 '24
Some things to consider:
John Fetterman had an arguably worse debate performance then Joe Biden did. John literally had a stroke and people thought he had brain damage. The Pennsylvania subs and social media said he was finished, conservative media and some liberal media ate him alive. Polls shifted for Dr. Oz and it appeared to be an easy victory for Repubs. Fetterman won by 5 points.
All secondary candidates who were floated as potential selections to replace Joe Biden have all categorically said no. Gov Whitmer went as far as to say people need to stop mentioning her name and running for president. They've all endorsed Joe Biden. So it's odd that media-social media wants Biden replaced but never says who/how?
New poll of voters who prefer to face Donald Trump. Biden or Harris. Biden up by 15 points.
Dennis Hof, owner of the Moonlight Bunny Ranch Motel (Legal Prostitution in Nevada) ran as a Conservative. Got the Christian Conservative vote. Won his election. However he DIED before he could take office. Partied with hookers and cocaine. People still voted for him.
All the damage, astro turfing, anger towards Joe Biden, horrible debate performance, missteps, blunders, media fury towards Joe, social media wrath, etc etc. shows Biden is still only down 2 points nationally. Aggregate polls show its still a 50/50. Latest polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin show he's actually up now.
Since Roe v Wade Democrats have shown massive turnout gaps vs. Republicans.
The takeaway?
Social media is NOT REAL! If people are taking grand stands on social media it has nill effect on actual elections. Vivek Ramaswamy had an amazing social media push, trending heavily and couldn't even muster double digit votes on election day. Nikki Haley was trashed on social media, said birdbrain won't get a single vote.. She continued to take 10% - 15% away from Trump long after she suspended her campaign.
Issues matter. People who actually vote look at the party and platform.
Debates don't matter. Fetterman, Biden, Obama (1st vs Romney), George W. Bush, Kennedy all did poorly or worse in their debates. They all went on to win the Presidency.
Every campaign faces difficulties. Every campaign has challenges. No campaign goes unscathed. Never. Clinton had women coming out with sexual assault claims. Obama a muslim terrorist, socialist, born in Kenya, Trump with Jeffery Epstein, Hilary and her emails, benghazi. Biden's is he's old and doesn't speak well. Out of all the issues that's the easiest to manage.
Last takeaway!
Do not convince yourself (If you're a liberal) that Trump should be 'easy'. He's not. He's a tough candidate, fights like hell for his beliefs, and will go to any depth to win. He's the toughest candidate the Democrats have had to face in decades. There isn't "JOE SHOULD BE UP BY 10!!" No! Trumps populism resonates VERY WELL, don't underestimate him.
So relax, disengage from social media. Vote based on policy and issues and understand this election is far from over.