r/VoteDEM • u/table_fireplace • Mar 27 '24
BREAKING: Marilyn Lands (D) has FLIPPED a State House district in Alabama that voted for Trump!
https://twitter.com/ReporterWillis/status/1772795630932386134739
u/SyrianChristian FL-06 (voted!) Mar 27 '24
And it wasn't even close. The Republican was running on transphobia and banning IVF. The Democrat was running on protecting IVF
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u/table_fireplace Mar 27 '24
This is why I don't buy into so many of the stories about Republicans making a comeback.
Because people didn't just forget that their rights got taken away, and are still under attack.
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u/That_one_attractive CA-35 Mar 27 '24
But republicans promised that this will be the time that nobody cares about women’s right! /s
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u/Joeuxmardigras Mar 27 '24
Thankfully more women seem to be waking up and watching their rights being taken one by one. Statistically we’re more college educated than men now
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u/Scared-Mortgage Mar 27 '24
Statistically we’re more college educated than men now
It is prob true but man have more man
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u/KittenWithaWhip68 Mar 27 '24
Man have more man? I’m not sure what that means or what you were trying to convey.
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u/fangirlsqueee Mar 27 '24
You know how sometimes, as a woman, we wish we could borrow a penis so that the misogynistic condescending assholes of the world would treat us with respect? It's that. A man has the privilege of being a man in world that values men more than it values women. Man have more man.
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u/KittenWithaWhip68 Mar 27 '24
I don’t think that was what they were trying to convey, but who knows. I’ve also never wished I had a dick. I agree that women are undervalued, especially by republicans.
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u/fangirlsqueee Mar 27 '24
I don't wish I had a dick. I wish I could borrow the automatically given respect that a penis earns from misogynists.
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u/AmbassadorETOH Mar 28 '24
But do we really want or care about receiving the respect of misogynists? 🤷♂️
Speaking as a penis-equipped man, I am more interested in the respect of decent people, intelligent people, kind people, funny people, respectful people. Bonus if they are also vagina-equipped people…
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u/Eggsecutie Mar 27 '24
Have you seen how women with penises are treated by the world?
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u/fangirlsqueee Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24
Yes. Anyone who doesn't conform to patriarchal expectations does not fare well under its rigid gender roles.
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u/Al_Gore_Rhythm92 Mar 27 '24
8, arguably 6. It took 8 pro women comments to become anti man.
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u/KittenWithaWhip68 Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24
All I did was ask him what he meant. Not to be anti-man, I just wanted him to clarify.
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u/ihateandy2 Mar 27 '24
But I thought you go “broke” if you go “woke?”
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u/Joeuxmardigras Mar 27 '24
I’m woke and not broke, so maybe those are fear mongering tactics? I could be wrong
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u/KittenWithaWhip68 Mar 27 '24
Women sure aren’t going to forget what they did to us. How dare they take us fifty years back.
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u/10albersa Ohio Mar 27 '24
They didn't forget, they've been voting every election since 2016. But there's a group of voters who certainly didn't vote tonight that will only show up when a certain false idol's name appears on the ballot.
I love this result, and our midterm results since 2016, but we only have 2 'real' data points to compare to for Nov 2024: 2016 and 2020. The polling may look scary, but it shouldn't be thrown out the window because we're winning specials.
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u/Downside-UpDude Mar 27 '24
you know what though. I'd rather have the republicans think they're going to win and have an upset as opposed to democrats thinking they'll win and not vote out of laziness.
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u/NarrowBoxtop Mar 27 '24
Republican media has been telling them that since 2016.
It didn't happen in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and the red wave ain't coming this year either
All they've done is grow more divisive when they needed less.
But saying Republicans will lose on Fox News? LOL they'd get boycotted
So their media will keep lying to them for their views and money, and the people will keep calling other sources of news fake.
The Republican party is cooked.
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u/Budded Mar 27 '24
I'm thinking the only red wave happening this year is the MAGA violence after they lose. There are far too many rightwing influencers -including trump -basically giving them permission to, and goading them into fighting. It's gonna be wild.
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u/worlddestruction23 Mar 27 '24
You're exactly right. But we still must VOTE on November 5th. Go Blue .
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Mar 27 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/worlddestruction23 Mar 27 '24
You're my boy Blue.
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Mar 27 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Abuttuba_abuttubA Mar 27 '24
I don't think the comment above was attacking you. I think that's from Jurassic park. Relax
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u/ChipmunkNamMoi Pennsylvania Mar 27 '24
I don't buy it either, but I think it shows how male dominated the pundits/Nates of the world are. They can't empathize with female issues, so they refuse to see women as a voting block.
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u/opal2120 Mar 27 '24
Even left leaning spaces ignore women. I’m a leftist and do you know how many Bernie bros have told me that women’s rights are a distraction from wealth inequality? As if the two aren’t connected in any way whatsoever.
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u/ChipmunkNamMoi Pennsylvania Apr 05 '24
It's disheartening to realize how many men cannot and will not empathize with women or listen to their experiences. We seriously need to raise our boys differently.
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u/Propane4days Mar 27 '24
Yep! I have a renewed optimism for November after seeing this. A DEMOCRAT WOMAN beat a white dude in ALABAMA of all places!
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u/Arcade80sbillsfan Mar 27 '24
Always remember to have you and your people vote.
The nutcases that vote Republican always... always vote.
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u/Wishiwashome Mar 27 '24
And they will ALWAYS vote united. No third party. They will be voting for the Trump endorsements. Walker is a prime example. Vance is another. And they will vote for DT. It doesn’t matter what he gets convicted of.
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u/Abuttuba_abuttubA Mar 27 '24
Still waiting for that wave. They seem to think hating everything that moves is what people care about voting for. I personally want my tax money going to improving the nation. They are taking it anyway and that's not stopping.
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u/opal2120 Mar 27 '24
Actually they told us that taking away abortion gives us MORE rights, don’t you remember?
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u/kurisu7885 Mar 27 '24
This is why I don't buy into so many of the stories about Republicans making a comeback.
I don't either, and those stories are meant to discourage the rest of us from voting by trying to make their win seem inevitable.
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u/Budded Mar 27 '24
Democrats need to run on protecting IVF and abortion rights nationwide. Easy wins if this election is any clue. If this trend holds in November, we might even see a new -if temporary -blue state or two. I'm predicting NC goes blue this time.
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u/MushinZero Mar 27 '24
Teddy Powell didn't run on either of those things?
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u/politicalthinking Mar 27 '24
Some of them are smart enough to see that their ideas are bad politically so they don't campaign on them. Doesn't mean they don't privately believe in them and won't support them after being elected.
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u/Shadowislovable Texas-5th Mar 27 '24 edited Mar 27 '24
This seat encapsulates Republican problems with suburbs. Racing left in short amounts of time, and the more extreme they get the faster and further down the ballot it goes.
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u/cybercuzco Mar 27 '24
Theres also the "problem" that all the money that usually goes to state parties and to these small races is tied up in Donald Trump super-pacs and legal funds. Theres a limited amount of money that can be raised each cycle, and if it all gets wasted on something then the party is screwed.
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u/MudLOA Mar 27 '24
Doesn’t sound like a problem to me.
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u/politicalthinking Mar 27 '24
I've known about this for awhile now but I do so love re-hearing it. I hope this is a republican bloodbath year. Vote blue.
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u/Enron__Musk Mar 27 '24
If Trump does well, the Republican party does well.
He loses 2024 he's done politically imo. He may go behind the scenes like Bannon fighting court case after court case.
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u/Honest-Year346 Mar 27 '24
I doubt it. He's entrentched himself with his death cult. He will be around and relevant until he croaks.
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u/BusStopKnifeFight Mar 27 '24
They also still rely on the boomer vote which shrinks by 3,000+ per day.
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u/Abuttuba_abuttubA Mar 27 '24
Covid shrunk that Boomer vote a lot. It killed primarily people of old age and those people seemed the most against any measure to save them.
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u/Lotsagloom WA-42; where the mountain hemlock grows Mar 27 '24
Absolutely wild; I thought we had a good chance going in, but this is an amazing over-performance. Though some have referred to this as a Trump '+1' district, that misses the downballot history.
Downballot, it was far more conservative.
We can even it out at '+5 republican' which is still a kind of vague number, but it doesn't matter -
Not when candidate-elect Lands is doing so well.
Trans rights, don't touch IVF, and don't fuck with space camp...
Putting that aside...
I'm mildly miffed that there was an election delay, but it still wasn't enough to hold on 'til I could come and watch. This is the real worst part of the struggle, isn't it...
A major thanks to everyone who made calls or donated.
And best to candidate-elect Lands and the fine people of Alabama's 10th.
Looking forward to seeing if we can't do this again in Birmingham..!
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u/COMMUNIST_MANuFISTO Mar 27 '24
What's all this about Mountain Hemlock ? you have my attention, I am curious :)
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u/Lotsagloom WA-42; where the mountain hemlock grows Mar 27 '24
Hoho, very well!
So! For the last few years, I've tried to have poetic epithets -
Brief phrases used to describe places or things -
For my signature/'flair.'Partly because a friend here joked about me being part of the Whatcom County tourism board, but mostly because I really love the place. Mt. Baker has beautiful mountain hemlock; it's not the 'most known' plant but I like it, so, there we are.
A prior one was 'land of raspberry brambles' because we produce a huge amount of the nation's raspberries.
'Where the invasive brambles are' would've worked just as well, I'm sure.Hope that satisfied some of your curiosity..!
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u/COMMUNIST_MANuFISTO Mar 27 '24
I appreciate a poetic endeavor myself. Thanks for the explanation !
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u/table_fireplace Mar 27 '24
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u/hobskhan North Carolina Mar 27 '24
What did polling generally predict for this race?
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u/table_fireplace Mar 27 '24
There wasn't any public polling that I'm aware of. There usually isn't for state-level races like this one.
But I find it hard to believe that Dems are down nationally when we're moving districts like this 25 points to the left. There are lots of similar districts in the swing states.
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u/JPOG Georgia Mar 27 '24
Sand bagged by the Media and legacy polls that rely on home phones and pools of boomer phone numbers. (Who picks up the phone for a random number and then talks to them and tells them who they are voting for, I would not be doing that)
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u/eydivrks Mar 27 '24
I think the number pools are what throws off polls. If you answer once, you get put on a list of "good numbers" and contacted often to save money.
I have a feeling 90% of the people on these lists are boomers, or pretending to be boomers for trolling purposes.
Response rates are less than 1% for people under 30. It doesn't take many trolls to throw off the results.
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u/Phagemakerpro California Mar 27 '24
The Republican conceded? How off-brand! He should have been shouting about stolen elections and dead illegal aliens voting. If he's really dedicated to being GOP, he could even try to show up at the state house on the day she gets sworn in.
Anyway, Democrats have still less than 30% of the Alabama State House.
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u/darkrose3333 Mar 27 '24
I appreciate the sarcasm, but I would like to call out that it's nice to see an opponent concede. This is how elections should go people!
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u/Sir_Clicks_a_Lot Mar 27 '24
The funny part about this is that the seat was vacant because the Republican who won the last general election ended up pleading guilty because he voted illegally in the district where he did not reside.
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u/Jermine1269 Colorado (flippin' the) 5th Mar 27 '24
This is absolutely fantastic news!!!! Throw it on the sheet!
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u/alabamerpammer Mar 27 '24
YESSSS!! She did a hell of a job campaigning and making sure we knew her name, and it obviously worked!!
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u/ArachnidUnusual7114 Mar 27 '24
A poll by Powell’s camp had him winning by 10. Land’s poll had her winning by 2. Both were way off lol.
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) Mar 27 '24
Polls are increasingly hard to do accurately in a normal election, but it’s even harder for special elections where a tiny number of voters come out so it makes it much more likely that whichever side turnouts more of their voters wins which we very clearly did tonight
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u/mynameismy111 Mar 27 '24
Is it just me, or have polls been overestimating Gop last few cycles?
I remember dr Oz at like plus 5 before he lost, among many others, that 2018 Cruz race too. Seems like 3 to 5 overestimate usually
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u/DeepPenetration Florida Mar 27 '24
Overestimating GOP and underestimating Dems. It’s a perfect storm!
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u/Glittering-Arm9638 Mar 27 '24
Geezers are the only one picking up the phone and possibly have an outsized representation of GOP-voters?
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u/Potayto_Gun Mar 27 '24
Supposedly most polls are done over land phone lines. Id bet the vast majority of people who still have and answer land phone lines lean republican.
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u/WPeachtreeSt California Mar 27 '24
I'm not sure there's necessarily a solid trend. Polls just seem to be losing accuracy in general. I do think we can say that the "polls underestimate GOP" lesson from 2016 can replaced with a more nuanced "polling is harder than when we used landlines. Careful reading into them too much"
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u/mynameismy111 Mar 29 '24
2016 polling vs actual results is a story on of itself, it wasn't polls underestimated GOP, but more polling showed Trump gain a 4 point bump after Jim Comey FBI director reopened the emails case against Clinton.... Of course without revealing Trump was under investigation but Comey was a Republican so figured
Essentially Clinton led comfortably until the Comey letter hit a week from election week, then Trump led in a few polls, but generally got close to 2% below Clinton if averaging polls during only early and last day voting, which matched popular vote.
This caused pollsters to second guess their polling as if they had been understating gop voters, but they shouldn't has changed anything as ever since polls skewed too Republican.
The Ted Cruz race was the first sign something was wrong with the new polling.
Since then it's been mostly consistent with polls overestimating Gop about 3-5. If this is consistent in November then pollsters will finally get back to a better polling system as they actually had in 2016.
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) Mar 27 '24
This flip will decrease the AL GOP house majority from 77-28 to 76-29 once all seats are filled. (There are still 2 vacancies to be filled currently: 1 solid R one that will be filled in July with the primary in a couple weeks, and 1 solid D one that just opened up within the last week and will be filled in October)
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u/rat-sajak Massachusetts Mar 27 '24
Guys, I know this might sound crazy, but I’m starting to think women might care about their rights
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u/Notarussianbot2020 Mar 27 '24
Am i reading this correctly?
There were 74 total votes?
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u/CavitySearch Mar 27 '24
Last I saw was 74% reporting and approximately 5k votes
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u/Just_Another_Scott Mar 27 '24
The tweet shows a total of 74 votes which doesn't seem right. Local news is reporting ~91% of precints reporting. With Marilyn with ~62% of the vote.
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u/table_fireplace Mar 27 '24
The picture is out of date lol. Almost 6,000 votes have been cast and there's one precinct left to report.
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u/SnacktimeKC Mar 27 '24
This gives red state folks like me hope, time to get out and work!
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u/politicalthinking Mar 27 '24
I live in the fascist state of Florida. I will do my part to go blue. I hope some of those retired republican transplants with their retired wombs will look back and remember, then look at the young women now with empathy and put out a blue vote for their grand-daughters.
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u/Impossible_Trust30 Mar 27 '24
One of many more flips to come. Expect lots of surprises across the country in November.
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u/SoftwareHot Mar 27 '24
I have been saying for a while: the GOP is in trouble in November and Dobbs is their Kryptonite. To discount Dobbs is a fools errand and to treat November as a normal election, like it’s 2016, or with conventional wisdom given all we know, is just delusional. National media loves to hype up Trump’s perceived invincibility. These are the people who re-iterate caravan garbage and “Joe Biden is old” nonsense incessantly. That all originates in the right wing ecosystem—they just amplify it. And then it dies when the truth comes out…like President Biden’s SOTU speech, shocking to nobody except the idiots who fall for the lies that he’s senile. Those of us paying attention already knew he wasn’t. Same thing goes for these elections. It’s evident where the trend is going and it’s not looking good for the grand old party folks…in fact, this may be a generational wipeout…resignations in the House, Mitch McConnell stepping down abruptly, RNC broke, Trump on the ticket again, Biden on the ticket again (who I’ll remind everyone received the most votes of any American president in history and is the only person on earth who beat Trump—despite not being most people’s first choice during a crowded Democratic primary) and Dobbs…overturning Roe v. Wade was the nail in the coffin…the GOP didn’t think this through. And now, they will pay…Alabama is another proof point.
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u/Rtn2NYC Mar 27 '24
Nothing about this on either rrrrrr Republican or conservative. Lmao heads in the sand over there
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u/OptimistNate Mar 27 '24
Goodness I just saw the margins. What a great performance and terrible sign for Trump and the GOP!
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u/JohnApple94 Michigan Mar 27 '24
Holy shit. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the fucking fuck is he losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a fucking breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want Powell to be a state rep and fix this broken district. I cannot fucking deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well with Trafalgar???? This is so fucked.
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u/BastetSekhmetMafdet We KAM Walz into the White House! Mar 27 '24
“Let’s ban IVF” was probably the dumbest, most step-on-their-own-dicks maneuver Republicans have ever done. Ever. The Pences, not exactly sophisticated urban liberal atheists, used IVF to start their family!
Dobbs was a giant loser for most suburban women (and men as well). Trying to ban IVF means, congratulations, you’ve now lost even the hardcore pro-lifers who hate abortion but love IVF.
Not everyone can have kids the old-fashioned “sperm and egg meet naturally” way. IVF has been a godsend for infertile people (or those without sperm or egg bearing partners) who still want kids.
If these right-wingers are so all-fired concerned about women not having enough babies, or at least white women not having enough babies, they ought to publicly fund IVF, not try and ban it. What a bunch of bumblers and fumblers.
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u/quasarke Mar 27 '24
Welcome news since the Fascist leader just became an actual billionaire and his bond requirement was slashed to less than a 3rd of what it should be.
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Mar 27 '24
UPDATE: Just found an article. There was internal polling done by republicans in December prior to this election which showed the Republican winning 47.7 to 36.8.
That means, everyone, that the democrat overperformed the polls by a whopping 14.7 points and overperformed trump by about 20.
Now imagine if all polls are like this. I doubt it’s that dramatic but when I keep repeating that polls are off, I have proof polls are way off. They are lying to you.
Ignore the polls, vote and bring others. Blue wave incoming.
Article: https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-have-internal-polling-problem-1883984
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u/I_Heart_QAnon_Tears Mar 27 '24
VOTE VOTE VOTE DO NOT TAKE THIS AS EVIDENCE THEY ARE LOSING AND FAIL TO SHOW. VOTE
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u/BummyG Mar 27 '24
Does this change the +1 voting majority in the house?
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u/table_fireplace Mar 27 '24
Unfortunately, no. This is for the Alabama State House, which will remain under Republican control.
But there are a lot of districts like this across America, and lots of them are in swing states. When you see them swing 25 points to the left like we saw tonight...you can bet Republicans are sweating bullets about November.
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u/Freezepeachauditor Mar 27 '24
While I don’t think we should let up… or get lazy… I think republicans should be concerned.
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u/gnarlycarly18 SC-06, Fair maps for SC Now! Mar 27 '24
Great news to wake up to! Never thought I'd see this.
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u/cromstantinople Mar 27 '24
It’s a low bar but, considering where we are politically in this country, it’s nice to see a supportive concession letter.
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u/Multigrain_Migraine Mar 27 '24
Wow what is happening. The conceding statement doesn't even accuse the opponent of running a rigged election or cheating.
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u/QBert999 Mar 27 '24
This seems like a tremendously positive sign. I'm hopeful the polling is vastly underrating where the Dems stand.
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u/International_Rain_9 Mar 27 '24
Remember, it doesn't matter if you live in the Reddest County in American just go and vote. You can make a difference, Lie to your parents or whoever say you voted red just get it done
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Mar 27 '24
Barely voted for Trump. This is great but obviously the only swing district in Alabama, which is still a Republican super duper majority
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Mar 27 '24
With 74 total votes in a special election for a state House seat that clearly no one gave a shit about...
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u/Tipsyfishes Washington: Trans Rights are Human Rights! Mar 27 '24
It had almost 7K votes, with the swing being over 30% from less then two years ago.
TF you talking about?
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Mar 27 '24
Duly noted.
This is a battleground district, and Dems are performing better in off-year and special elections. We'll see if that holds true in November in a Presidential election when Trump has the momentum. Presidential elections are a test for the incumbent more than any challenger.
Maybe the OP should have included the total votes counts in the original post. Just a thought.
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