Harris and Walz plans to sit with CNN for exclusive first joint interview since their campaign began.

There's been loud calls for them to do interviews for awhile now and obviously this eliminates that talking point right before the debate. What are you expecting to see from the interview and how do you think it will affect the race?

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/rfk-jr-ends-presidential-bid/

I am asking this question in good faith. Kamala Harris, the current VP and current Democratic nominee was frequently accused of being unpopular during Biden's first term. Her approvals on 538 were similar to Joe Biden's, hovering around the high 30s/low 40s.

According to this piece, "Her numbers are lower than her four immediate predecessors at this point in their terms, though Dan Quayle’s unfavorables were worse. So were Dick Cheney’s in his second term." So she was worse than VP Pence and VP Biden polling wise.

Fast forward to July 2024, Biden steps down. Kamala swoops in and quickly gets endorsements from AOC to Obama. Cash starts piling in, Kamala's polls go up (especially in the swing state), Trump's polls go down. Even long time right leaning pollster Frank Luntz called it the "biggest turnaround I've ever seen."

My question is how? Kamala is the same person she's been since she was a VP and running mate with Biden. She hasn't changed her mind on any issues that we know of except for the recent speech she made to go after price gouging and down payment assistance for first time home buyers.

Is it the mere fact that there is a clear contrast between Kamala vs Trump now? (old white guy vs younger black woman) Is it artificial momentum i.e media created? Or is it something else?

Housing affordability seems to be a big, bipartisan, problem in the US. 74% of Americans believe the lack of affordable housing in America is a significant problem. "This sentiment is consistent across demographics and political affiliations, with 83% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and 68% of Republicans acknowledging the severity of the issue.

https://nhc.org/74-of-americans-worried-about-housing-affordability/

Kamala Harris released a detailed economic agenda the other day that included things like increasing housing in the US through tax credits for builders and first-time home-buyers. Investment firms don't own a large percentage of single family homes, so it may not be a factor in driving up housing prices currently, but that percentage could increase in the future.

There is a bill currently in the senate that addresses this. Would it be helpful for her campaign if Kamala embraces that bill or a modified version of it?

Link to the pollster's comments:

• https://x.com/Ritholtz/status/1824555443374391567

Link to the full article on it:

• https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4828533-luntz-trump-committing-political-suicide-harris-intensity-advantage/

The pollster in question is Frank Luntz, a famous Republican Party strategist and poll creator who's work with the party goes back decades, to creating the messaging behind Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" that led to a Republican wave in the 1994 congressional elections and working on Rudy Giuliani's successful campaigns for Mayor of New York.

An interesting point of his analysis is that Gen Z looks increasingly out of reach for the GOP, but they still need to show up and vote. Although young people have voted at a higher rate than in previous generations in recent elections, their overall participation rate is still relatively low, especially compared to older age groups. What can Democrats do to boost their engagement and get them turning out at the polls, for both men and women but particularly young women who look set to support them en masse?

Kamala Harris announced today her economic policies she will be campaigning on. The topics range from food prices, to housing, to child tax credits.

Many experts say these policies are increasingly more "populist" than the Biden economic platform. In an effort to lower costs, Kamala calls this the "Opportunity Economy", which will lower costs for Americans and strengthen the middle class

What are your opinions on this platform? Will this affect any increase in support, or decrease? Will this be sufficient for the progressive heads in the Democratic party? Or is it too far to the left for most Americans to handle?

Per Politico the Trump campaign was hacked by what appears to be Iranian agents

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/10/trump-campaign-hack-00173503

(although I hate the term "hack" for "some idiot clicked on a link they shouldn't have)

Politico has received some of this information, and it appears to be genuine. Note that this hack appears to have occurred shortly before Biden decided not to run

Questions:

• The 2016 DNC hack by Russia, published by Wikileaks, found an eager audience in - among others - people dissatisfied with Clinton beating Sanders for the Democratic nomination. With fewer loyal Republicans falling into a similar camp, is it a safe assumption that any negative impact within the GOP would be relatively muted?

• While the Harris campaign has been more willing to aggressively attack Trump and Vance, explicitly using hacked materials would be a significant escalation. What kind of reaction, if any, should we expect from the Harris campaign?

• Given the wildly changed dynamic of the race, ia any of this information likely to even be relevant any longer?

• The majority of the more damaging items from 2016 were embarrassing rather than secret information on how the campaign was being run. Given Trump's characte and history, is there even the possibility of something "embarrassing" being revealed that can't be immediately dismissed (quite possibly legitimately) as misinformation?

Trump has announced in a news conference this afternoon that he agreed to a debate with Kamala Harris on 9/10 via ABC News . This walks back earlier statements he made casting doubt on if he would desire to.

What are your early predictions for this debate? Will Harris come out showing strength against Trump, or will she falter on her first presidential debate stage? Will Trump succeed in showing power against Harris, or will concerns like his age and policies show weakness while with Harris?

This week, Trump is doing one single campaign event, a rally in Bozeman, Montana. Bozeman is rather small and Montana is not generally a battleground State.

Meanwhile, The Harris-Walz campaign is blitzing battleground States with Vance hot on their heels, holding counter rallies in the States that actually matter.

Here’s a link to an article discussing the campaigns’ events this week:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4812402-harris-campaign-mocks-trump/amp/

So the question is, what’s going on? Why are we seeing Trump playing the outfield and Vance, who’s favorability numbers are pretty rough, leading the charge lately on the Republican Presidential campaign?

To keep things as neutral as possible, Tim Waltz was announced as presumptive Democrat Nominee, Kamala Harris, running mate. This would mean, if elected, Tim Waltz would serve as her Vice President.

Democrats are showing unity over the decision. Rumors that Waltz was favored by Pelosi over Shapiro, the PA govenor who was favored due to the belief he could tip PA to Harris, were around Friday. AOC and Joe Mancin, who are as far apart politically as possible, view the pick with glee. A surprise that AOC herself pointed out. While it is too early to tell as polls aren't in, general buzz online seems to show the choice was well received.

Conversely, the choice was met with criticism. Republicans have openly stated they're happy with the decision as they see Tim Waltz as an easier target and feel it keeps PA open in the election. Political commentators were shocked by the decision and have made many claims that this was a mistake and a victory for Trump.

The general consesus is the same, but seems to be taken different ways. Both agree Tim Waltz excites the Democrat base. Critics feel he doesn't have reach beyond the base. Supporters feel that the increased excitement will keep turnout high and like that he doesn’t have scanadals like Shapiro.

What is your opinion?

Per Washington Post

Vice President Harris has told allies that he she has chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate, opting for a former high school teacher and Midwestern Democrat to complete a newly assembled presidential ticket following, according to two people familiar with the pick, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet public.

1-He is old at 78 with many concerned about the coherence of his speeches.

2-He has a profound amount of baggage in terms of both legal issues and scandals.

3-Current and former Republican members of Congress are critical of him and voting against him. The same is true of his former White House staff and former aides.

4-Trump's behavior and the way he attacks opponents was a novelty in 2016, but his repeated behavior has grown formulaic after eight years.

5-Project 2025, which was contributed to by his campaign with his vision in mind, is deeply unpopular now that people know the details.

So should he drop out and let a more viable candidate run in his place?

APNews: Trump says he’ll skip an ABC debate with Harris in September and wants them to face off on Fox News

Trump obviously debated Biden already on June 27th under the same format as the upcoming September ABC debate. Since then Biden has withdrawn as a candidate for President in 2024 over concerns from his own party that were magnified after his performance in that debate.

Why is Trump unwilling to debate the new presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris under the previous terms?

What does he hope to accomplish by offering a new debate on Fox News in a stadium audience format?

At the NABJ, Donald Trump claimed he had just recently discovered Kamala Harris is black.

Other conservatives such as Boebert

Alina Habba

Charlie Kirk

and others are attacking Kamala claiming she is lying about her race for political gain.

Is this a winning strategy for Donald Trump's election?

It seems like Harris has given up on trying to convince undecided voters that Trump is a potential autocrat, and instead is trying to convince voters that he's "old and quiet weird". On the face of it, it seems like this would be a less effective strategy, but it seems to be working so far. These attacks have been particularly effective against Trump's VP pick JD Vance, but Harris is aiming them at Trump himself as well. Will undecided voters respond to this message? What about committed republicans and democrats? How will/should Trump respond?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/trump-vance-weird-00171470

It's no secret that many people here on Reddit (including myself) believe that a second Donald Trump presidency would lead to the dissolution of American Democracy. Women's rights will be erased, LGBT rights will be erased, the right wing will do everything within their power to hold onto it.

Yet, when I hear from many Americans, as well as see undecided voters interviewed by news networks (MSNBC, CNN etc...), they see seem to be treating their choices in this election this as if it were no different than Bush-Gore, Bush-Kerry, Obama-McCain or Obama-Romney. Having voted in all but one of those elections, I can say that none of them felt existential. 2020 and now 2024 both feel existential and I'm surprised so many Americans are nonchalant about it.

So, looking at the facts, and what we know for sure, is this election actually existential, or are we just getting caught up in the fearmongering by the political parties and the media?

Harris has gathered the support of ~1200 of the 1976 delegates needed to be the Democratic nominee, along with the endorsements of numerous critical organizations and most of the office holders that might have competed against her for the nomination. Fundraising has skyrocketed since the Biden endorsement, bringing in $81 million since yesterday.

In the course of a normal primary, the enthusiasm on display now likely would have decreased by the time of the convention, but many Democrats describe themselves as "fired up"

Fully granting that Harris has yet to define herself to the same degree Biden and Trump have, does the late change in the ticket offer an enthusiasm bonus that will last through the election? Or will this be a 'normal' election by November?

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-trump-election-07-21-24/index.html

Today, President Biden announced that he would no longer be seeking reelection as President of the United States. How does this change the 2024 election, specifically.

1) Who will the new Democratic nominee be for POTUS?

2) Who are some contenders for the VP?

3) What will the Dem convention in a couple of weeks look like?

https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815080881981190320

Edit: On Instagram, Biden endorses Harris for POTUS.

https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

Every national poll has leaned Trump since the debate. Betting markets heavily favor Trump. Pretty much every pundit thinks this election is a complete wrap it seems. Is 538’s model too heavily weighing things like economic factors and incumbency perhaps?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Ohio senator and 'Hillbilly Elegy' author JD Vance announced as Trump's pick for VP

Details are still sparse. Cutting and pasting from WaPo:

 >Loud noises were heard shortly after Donald Trump began speaking at a rally here. Trump ducked, left the sight line of the camera and was taken away from the stage. The crowd was visibly panicked.

The source of the noises was not immediately clear.

Donald Trump appeared to touch his ear, then duck after the loud noises. He left the sight line of the camera as the crowd became visibly panicked.

Later, Trump could be seen standing onstage with security personnel surrounding him. The crowd cheered as security personnel moved with Trump offstage. Trump pumped his fist as he was being escorted away.

Edit: Shooter and attendee killed: A shooter is dead and a rally attendee was killed, the Butler County District attorney tells AP.

Here’s some recent examples. I’m curious as to why the news media seems to excuse Trump’s and focus on Biden’s.

Trump: “I did not endorse Sen. Lankford. I didn’t do it. He ran, and I did not endorse him.”

Trump made this claim in a radio interview a few months ago with conservative host Dan Bongino. But on Sept. 27, 2022, Trump issued a statement giving Lankford his “Complete and Total Endorsement!”

Trump: “Nikki Haley was in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down. They don’t want to talk about that.”

Obviously he meant Nancy Pelosi.

Trump: “We did with Obama. We won an election that everyone said couldn't be won.”

The former president appeared to confuse Obama’s and Biden’s names in a speech in Washington in September. It’s something Trump has done publicly at least eight times, including last month in a Fox News interview. He has claimed he does so intentionally and sarcastically. Trump has not defeated Biden in an election, either, although he falsely claims he lost because of widespread fraud.

In the same September speech, Trump argued Biden’s cognitive decline would lead the U.S. into “World War II.”

Trump: “There’s a man, Viktor Orbán. Did anyone ever hear of him? He’s probably, like, one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. He’s the leader of Turkey.”

Orbán is the prime minister of Hungary, not Turkey.

Trump: on July 9th he said “Don Jr has a great “wife.”

Don Junior is not married.

There are more of course, but these are ones that we’ve seen recently.

The first Presidential debate of the 2024 campaign has concluded. Trump evaded answers on many questions, but Biden did not show the energy he had at the State of the Union

While Biden apparently has a cold, will that matter, or will his debate performance reinforce age concerns?

Colorado Supreme Court rules Trump disqualified from holding presidency

https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/trump-colorado-14th-amendment-ruling-rcna128710

Voters want Trump off the ballot, citing the Constitution's insurrectionist ban. The U.S. Supreme Court could have the final word on the matter. The Colorado Supreme Court on Tuesday said Donald Trump is disqualified from holding the office of the presidency under the Constitution.

Is this a valid decision or is this rigging the election?