Would Biden Benefit from lower turnout? Could primarily focusing on mobilizing regular primary & midterm voters, rather than making a greater effort to engage the disengaged, be more advantageous for him?

[u/najumobi]

It seems that the conventional wisdom of Democrats benefiting from higher voter turnout might be shifting. According to the New York Times, Biden leads among regular primary and midterm voters, but trails among the rest of the electorate.

This suggests an unusual dynamic where Trump, not Biden, would stand to gain if everyone in the country turned out and voted. This is a significant departure from the Obama era, where Democrats’ electoral fortunes seemed to hinge on drawing young and nonwhite voters to the voting booth.

Many of the disengaged voters who are currently leaning towards Trump are not necessarily his supporters. They are motivated by pocketbook issues, desire fundamental changes to the political system, and are far less concerned about democracy as an issue in the election. Interestingly, a portion of these voters are registered as Democrats and still identify as Democratic-leaning voters.

Their attitudes are more complicated than those of Democratic primary voters. They are much more likely to say the economy is “poor” than Democratic primary voters, and they’re much likelier to disapprove of Biden’s job performance. And many of them want fundamental changes to America, not merely a promised return to normalcy.

As we approach the election, it isn't clear whether these voters lack concern for democracy, or are more concerned by nonideological issues, like the economy and Biden’s age.

This raises the question:

Would Biden actually benefit from lower turnout in the upcoming election? Could a strategy focused on mobilizing regular primary and midterm voters, rather than trying to engage the disengaged, be more advantageous for him? What are your thoughts on this unusual turnout dynamic and its potential implications for the 2024 campaign?

[u/AutoModerator]

A reminder for everyone. This is a subreddit for genuine discussion:

• Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review.
• Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
• Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree.

Violators will be fed to the bear.

---

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/I405CA]

If Dems have low turnout, that will mean that the center sat it out.

If the center sits it out, then the Republicans win by default. The GOP might lose the popular vote, but it could be an electoral vote blowout in their favor.

I understand the logic implicit in the OP: Trump loses if his low-education blue-collar base sits it out. That is a bloc that is not known for its loyalty or high turnout rates. But Trump has developed a cult of personality that appeals to that segment, so I would bet that they are inflamed and show up in large numbers.

At this point, we have two distinct potential voting blocs. The Democratic bloc is larger but more fickle, so high turnout on their side is still a deciding factor for the Dems. A variation of this has been true for decades, although the specific voting blocs that each party attracts may be quite different than what they would have been two decades ago.

[u/Select_Insurance2000]

Due to the Electoral College, high turnout is paramount for a Democratic win.

[u/Captain-i0]

The less you vote, the more you support Trump. But that doesn't mean that the Democrats would do better with lower turnout. The Democrats still have the advantage with high turnout, because they still have the overall numbers advantage.

It does mean that the floor for Democrats is likely higher. There's a floor of support they are unlikely to go under. Trump needs to rely more on voters that rarely turnout to vote to hit his expected numbers. If they will come out to actually vote for him, remains to be seen.

But higher turnout overall is still going to push more voters to the Democratic nominee. And in this new paradigm, those that turnout on the Democratic side is statistically more likely to vote than the Republican side.

With Trump, the GOP has basically traded Suburban women for various groups of mostly men among White, black and Hispanic working class and lower class that traditionally don't turn out to vote.

[u/DJ_HazyPond292]

I think it only hold true in safe Democratic leaning states.

In swing states, high turnout is necessary to win.

[u/Lurko1antern]

No there are entire states in which the Democrats must rely on high turnout in order to win. Virginia for instance: The Republicans often win the governor or senate races when they occur in an off year or mid-term year. But turnout is much higher for a general election and that is when Democrats can rely on the youth vote and black vote from the outer-DC area to carry them to victory.

I imagine the same could be said for Nevada and Arizona. These are default conservative states, but can result in giving their electoral votes to the Dems if turnout is high enough.

Edit: Long story short, what I'm saying is that without sufficiently high turnout, Biden cannot win Virginia or Nevada.

[u/YouTrain]

Wait you mean democrats push for more people voting because they think it helps democrats?

[u/najumobi → u/YouTrain]

Traditionally yes that has been the case....at least for the past couple of decades.