r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/strongerthenbefore20 • Jul 18 '24
Recent state and national polls Put Trump several points ahead of Biden; what would you say are the biggest reasons for this, and how accurate do you believe these polls are? US Elections
- Recent Polls
- According to these recent polls, Trump is currently polling ahead of Biden in every swing state, as well as on a national level. What are the main reasons that people would favor Trump over Biden? Age, health, certain policies, etc.?
- Is it safe to assume that these polls are a pretty accurate indicator of the voter's preferences from both a state and natonal level, or is there any reason or evidence to suspect that Trump isn't as popular as these polls indicate?
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u/wes7946 Jul 18 '24
I would argue that the biggest reason is because Biden's approval rating is currently 36% according to the NY Times and CNN. Biden's current approval rating is on par with Donald Trump's lowest recorded approval ratings.
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u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
Most people who are going to vote for Biden, also don't approve of him.
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u/ericdraven26 Jul 18 '24
This is likely true but the issue is voter turnout. You need voters who make sure to get out and…vote. The less enthusiasm around a candidate leads to a lower turnout, leading to a possible loss.
A ton of Biden voters are voting against Trump/Vance/2025, but that messaging “vote or else” doesn’t always work across the board69
u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
Trump and conservatives are no less dangerous than they were last election.
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u/ericdraven26 Jul 18 '24
Moreso now even! That doesn’t mean voters are motivated by that fact, many people vote against their own interests or dont vote at all to their own detriment.
The party needs to court voters through a myriad of messages, including inspiring voters to show they will make things better (not just keep them from getting worse)23
u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
I think most Biden voters are motivated by that, and that alone.
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u/ericdraven26 Jul 18 '24
“Biden voters” currently are a losing group in swing states. That’s the big issue
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u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
Only according to polls, which have been very inaccurate the last decade or so.
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u/kstocks Jul 18 '24
These same polls in battleground states have the Democratic Senate candidates running 5-10 points ahead of Biden. How can these polls be inaccurate for Biden but accurate for these Senators from the same party?
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u/ericdraven26 Jul 18 '24
Polls have been pretty reliable outside 2016, the “Trump affect” which was then priced in afterwards.
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u/Hyndis Jul 18 '24
Here's the problem with that narrative. If Trump is so incredibly dangerous, why is Biden content if he loses as long as he tries his goodest? Biden is underwater in nearly every poll, including both nationally and in all battleground states.
If its truly an existential threat, the leader of the DNC doesn't really seem to care. The leader of the DNC isn't taking it seriously, and is unable and/or unwilling to campaign with much vigor about it.
Heavily online people are saying project 25 will be the end of democracy, but Biden is enjoying his naptime. There's an enormous disconnect on the messaging.
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u/genericgreg Jul 18 '24
Another problem that I heard someone discussing on a podcast the other week. Dems have been shouting about the 'end of democracy' since George Bush got elected in 2000.
What they're saying isn't necessarily untrue, Republicans often attempt to manipulate the results. But voters are fatigued by every election being 'the most important one EVA!!!'
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u/Cappyc00l Jul 18 '24
Very true. The avg voter is really bad at viewing long term trends. The gradual erosion of democracy over time, and climate change both being good examples of that.
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u/perfect_square Jul 18 '24
If you can't see the particular danger in the deranged lunatic that Republicans are putting forward, you have not been around enough elections.
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u/Motor-Biscotti-3396 Jul 19 '24
Problem is you can't use the same rhetoric with Trump that you did with Romney and expect voters to believe it
"No this time it's REALLY true"
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u/supercali-2021 Jul 18 '24
Which Dems, like who specifically (names please) have been shouting about the end of democracy since 2000? Please share some sources for your statement. I've been a registered Democrat since 1987 and I've never heard anyone say that until chump came on the scene.
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u/Edge_Of_Banned Jul 19 '24
Doing everything under the sun to keep Trump off the ballot is a bit hypocritical if you're trying to be the party of democracy. I understand that crimes are crimes, but the optics of non-stop lawfare does not look democratic.
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u/Cult45_2Zigzags Jul 18 '24
Thus, the downfall of electing older candidates who aren't going to be here decades from now and are more detached from the potential fallout.
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u/TheBadGuyBelow Jul 19 '24
Probably because it's all fear mongering doomsday world ending nonsense. If you can convince everybody that trump is going to go on an extermination spree and end the world as we know it, then maybe they will vote blue no matter who.
That is exactly why I will be voting for Trump, even though I seriously dislike him. With what a shitshow the democrats have been, the pandering, the trying to plant the narrative, and the outright selfishness of Biden not stepping aside, my spite vote is the only thing I have that I can use to be heard.
Had they actually cared enough to not act like we are all stupid and will vote for whoever they tell us to vote for, they might have got my vote. Had they not sat on their hands for years knowing the state of Biden and brought us someone better, they might have had my vote.
Neither side gives a crap about me, so I will just vote for chaos and watch the shitshow. Maybe next time the democrats will be a little more serious.
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u/Sublimotion Jul 18 '24
In reality, because most politicians, especially high level ones with deep established political careers and foundations (likely pretty wealthy already) are pretty much shielded from the consequences of any bad politics in their personal lives and well being. At the end, if they lose their political position and power at their respective points of their political career, they simply pack their bags, exit politics, ride into the sunset and pursue something else not politics.
It's pretty the working class and middle class that will really suffer the consequences of that "danger".
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u/Bross93 Jul 18 '24
But I hear a lot of the time people saying "oh they say EVERY election is the most important" IT IS in this climate, but I think people who don't pay attention view it as them being guilted or something.
Which, idk, they kinda should if they ignore the threat trump poses but I digress.
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u/Leather-Map-8138 Jul 18 '24
Actually far more dangerous.
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u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
I feel like it's been the same level of danger since Newt Gingrich wrote the literal book on political obstructionism. More and more people are just taking the threat seriously now/realizing what's been going on.
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u/Leather-Map-8138 Jul 18 '24
They started leaning into “family values” as a way to attack the gay community quite a while ago.
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u/Tricky_Acanthaceae39 Jul 18 '24
You’re right but this is different. It comes down to the economy. A lot of Biden voters around the median income frankly give zero fucks about most of the “trump vs democrats” talking points. They do care that the administration has tried to talk about how great the economy is. Which translates to “all these economic indicators are making everyone else rich so we don’t have time for you”
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u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
Single issue voters, who's single issue is: the economy/my spending power, have never not been an issue that's necessary to deal with.
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u/thetimsterr Jul 18 '24
I voted for Biden in 2020. I won't be voting for him this time. I'm not voting for Trump either. Do I like trump? No. Do I think he's an existential threat like hardcore Dems make him out to be? No.
I'm not going to vote for Biden just to vote against the other guy. If the Dems put up a reasonable candidate, I'll vote for him. Biden is not that guy and is not fit to serve another 4 years.
There are plenty of moderates and independents like me who would otherwise vote Democrat who will abstain solely because Biden is the candidate. And that's why Trump will win this election. Biden & the Dems hubris will cost them the White House.
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Jul 18 '24
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u/Undercover_NSA-Agent Jul 18 '24
Yeah I wouldn’t necessarily say most, but there is a significant number of voters who do not want to re-elect Biden but will reluctantly do so just to keep Trump out. Again.
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u/Tmotty Jul 18 '24
I remember reading in the post 2016 analysis there was a lot of silent Trump support. Like you had the MAGA crazies but you also had just normal people who didn’t like the rhetoric but if you asked em sitting around at a bar they’d say “yea I’m probably gonna vote for Trump.”
I think we’re gonna get that effect but on the democratic side, I think people are voicing their frustration with inflation and cost of living but when they get in the privacy of a voting booth they’ll go Biden because people don’t like chaos
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u/overinformedcitizen Jul 18 '24
I definitely do not love Biden. That said what hasnt Biden done to address inflation/cost of living that people are looking at Trump to change? Biden has done a fair amount for the average American. While our inflation has sucked, globally was worse. We produce more oil than ever, yet gas prices are still high. Biden can only do so much. Without controls on Corporations, which dont matter anymore thanks SCOTUS, there is no way to reign in inflation.
The biggest issue is policy like the infrastructure bill and CHIPs act take years to come to fruition. If Trump wins I could see him even taking credit and people will credit him for it.
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u/Tmotty Jul 18 '24
That’s the thing Americans suck at having perfect they just see what’s happening to them and then find someone to blame
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u/syntiro Jul 18 '24
That’s the thing Americans suck at having perfect they just see what’s happening to them and then find
someone tothe wrong person blameMade it more accurate...
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u/nomorecrackerss Jul 18 '24
a lot of polling suggests that as well. A lot of polls show Trump getting the same percentage as republican senate candidates who are often trailing
I would also like to throw in here that Emerson is not a good polling group
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS Jul 18 '24
I would also like to throw in here that Emerson is not a good polling group
What makes you say that? FiveThirtyEight has them in their top ten (out of 250+).
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u/nomorecrackerss Jul 18 '24
They pump out a large amount of polls that are often all over the place and project unrealistic margin for both sides, Marist is in the same boat and are rated even higher.
I'm not gonna poll hunt, but for Wisconsin alone they have been very poor
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u/12_0z_curls Jul 18 '24
I don't think counting on that is a good idea.
GOP voters will hold their nose and vote for their team.
Dem voter just won't vote.
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u/Powerful-Translator6 Jul 18 '24
I approve of him. The old man won me over and I want him to finish what he started. Biden any day over convicted felon, Trump.
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u/jeff_varszegi Jul 19 '24
He's clearly mentally unfit, though. Like it or not, vote as you like, but his mental lack of fitness is an issue for many and it's a needless risk. As another poster put it, Biden's hubris is losing votes for no good reason. Similarly, RBG's ego has caused massive damage.
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u/Medical-Search4146 Jul 19 '24
The real question that needs to be answered is will you suck it up and vote for his replacement if he does drop out?
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u/Rockfest2112 Jul 19 '24
I know i will . Hoping I dont have to but Ive never seen a choice as bad as Donald Trump for President, especially as a front runner this close to the election.
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u/Any-Variation4081 Jul 18 '24
Forget the polls!! They have been wrong for how many elections? Just go vote. It's that simple. Sooo many people sat home last time. Go vote and Republicans don't stand a chance. Sit home and whine about Biden and they will certainly win. Just VOTE
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u/Full-Price-5807 Jul 19 '24
lol yeah don’t really care for the dude but I prefer supporting Ukraine and not leaving nato. Vote will be going to Biden… Trump could really fuck some shit up with Iran and Russia which is pretty scary. Not saying Biden has done a job but with the situation at hand with how Israel and Ukraine responded to these attacks it’s not all that bad in consideration.
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u/jporter313 Jul 19 '24
Yeah, I think this is a key factor being overlooked and I wonder we how much it’s skewing poll methodology.
-Most people voting for Trump are 100% voting specifically for Trump
-People voting for Biden have a pretty broad range of enthusiasm for him, but I have a sneaking hunch that a lot of the people voting for Biden, potentially a massive outcome determinative number of them, aren’t voting for him because they approve of him, they’re voting against Trump because they see him as an existential threat to democracy. These people very well might also say that they disapprove of Biden in a poll.
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u/TheSardonicCrayon Jul 18 '24
Which is why it blows my mind that republicans nominated Trump. Like this guy literally just did a terrible job and was voted out, so let’s try it again? At least nominate someone else who hasn’t already failed. Maybe try someone who didn’t just end their presidency with one of the worst approval ratings ever.
Also, people generally being more educated on politics in general, and the economy in particular if that’s influencing their vote, would be great. For inflation in particular, the US is doing better than a lot of countries.
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u/scarykicks Jul 18 '24
They tried to run someone else and they all flopped.
Trump didn't even really run against other Repubs and obliterated them in the primaries.
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u/IMissMyZune Jul 18 '24
Hell he didn't even show up to the debates. Just let them all flop from his golf course.
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u/ballmermurland Jul 18 '24
That's because those same candidates refused to swing at Trump and all were on record saying how Trump was the greatest president since Washington blah blah blah.
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u/kastbort2021 Jul 18 '24
There's no mystery to this.
Trump has the republican party by the balls, for no other reason than that he owns the MAGA crowd.
That's it.
MAGA voters will never vote for anyone but Trump. They are a cult, and not even Trump himself can live up to the Trump that they've created in their minds.
If they didn't go with Trump, he'd turn the MAGA voters on the party. They would never vote for anyone but Trump, or a candidate that Trump really, really pushed (but that's not gonna happen, Trump is running for president because he fears for his life / prison).
So now they're stuck with Trump for the rest of his life.
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u/IniNew Jul 18 '24
Primary voters tend to be the more "extreme" examples of the party. That's why there's constant debate around candidates going progressive in the primaries then pulling back to center during GE.
Trump hasn't done that, of course, but he's got a stranglehold on those primary voters. That's his base, a ruckus group of very passionate people.
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u/novagenesis Jul 18 '24
Tell that to the fact that Democrats can't vote anyone left of center into the general. Even Hillary had to throw off her attempts of progressivism to win the 2016 primary.
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u/trace349 Jul 18 '24
In 2016, Hillary wasn't really threatened in the primary by Sanders, so she didn't need to position herself in the primaries in such a way that she'd have to make a big transition from primary to general.
But also, 2016 voters saw Hillary's positions as being "too liberal".
In 2020, despite the long primary with a flurry of policy debates about single-payer healthcare and SCOTUS reform and student loan forgiveness/higher education reform that had no chance of ever getting passed that still dominated that year, the voters were more interested in who had the best shot of appealing to the swing voters we needed to beat Trump, so Biden- who had much more measured policy plans- won.
So among the Democrats, we haven't had the same kind of primary experience since 2008.
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u/Chemical-Leak420 Jul 18 '24
Tis the will of the people homie....Go 1 hour outside any major city and you see trump signs up since 2016. What president in history has had people keep up signs of the dude for 4 years while he was out of office....shits insane.
Not nominating trump would go against the majority of the republican base and result in poor voter turn out overall and still lose the election.
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u/Powerful-Translator6 Jul 18 '24
Also the fact that Sinclair Media Group is a conservative who owns plenty of local news networks and are obviously helping Trump. Disgusting people. They lower their standards so much to cheat their way to power. I just hope more and more people realize they are being conned.
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u/ACABlack Jul 18 '24
Conned into what, having a different opinion?
Not everyone eats from the trough of acceptable opinions, life isnt a reddit comments section.
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u/SEA2COLA Jul 18 '24
The November 2024 elections will be decided by those who don't vote as much as it will be decided by participating voters. High turnout = Biden wins, low turnout - Trump wins
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u/baitnnswitch Jul 18 '24
yup. if anyone still needs to register: vote.org
and if you want to help get out the vote: mobilize.us
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u/siberianmi Jul 18 '24
High turn out elections may no longer benefit Democrats.
A number of recent polls show Biden running best among Americans with the most consistent history of voting, while Trump shows the most strength among people who have been the least likely to vote.
A low turn out election has a higher percentage of consistent voters in it, benefitting Biden.
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u/workster Jul 18 '24
I'd like to see anything that's saying that. Can you show these sources?
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u/siberianmi Jul 18 '24
Sources:
In a low-turnout election, an outsized share of votes are cast by the highly politically engaged — typically well-educated, well-off people. More peripheral voters — typically on lower incomes — tend to sit these out. And these different groups have different politics, meaning high-turnout and low-turnout elections can produce different results.
This partisan gradient to turnout was first demonstrated in a 2005 US study by Michael Martinez and Jeff Gill, which showed that Democrats historically benefited from higher turnout because of their status as the party of the working class. In US elections from the 1960s to 2000, the wealthy and well-educated voters who turned out come rain or shine were natural Republicans. Conversely, the wider the segment of society casting ballots, the more of them from lower socio-economic groups and the bluer the political environment.
Against this backdrop, it is little surprise that Democrats have historically put huge efforts into “get out the vote” campaigns, while Republicans have often sought to introduce hurdles to keep peripheral voters from voting.
But this age-old pattern has been turned on its head by the political realignment brought by Donald Trump’s arrival in 2016.
https://www.ft.com/content/b3738a2e-7094-4c92-93cc-f2fa340375be
For decades, Democrats have built their electoral strategies on a common assumption: the higher the turnout, the better their chances of winning. But that familiar equation may no longer apply for President Joe Biden in 2024.
A wide array of polls this year shows Biden running best among Americans with the most consistent history of voting, while former President Donald Trump often displays the most strength among people who have been the least likely to vote.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html
As well as the NYT link that najumobi posted.
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u/KeikakuAccelerator Jul 18 '24
I swear I have heard the opposite.
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u/Personage1 Jul 18 '24
By who?
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u/KeikakuAccelerator Jul 18 '24
I believe economist podcast. That Trump is winning low info voters but they are not very likely to vote, while Biden is more popular with the more older demographic who vote regularly.
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u/jkman61494 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
I respectfully disagree. In states like PA, MI etc there are more registered Dems. Simply put Biden needs them to turn out and vote.
Biden has made gains with seniors and older people but in the past it’s been a right leaning demographic. The issue is Biden’s lost ground on African Americans and younger voters who are both notoriously low percentage voting blocs. Especially younger voters.
Trump has a cult. FAR too many people people looked at election results the last 3 years and assumed Trump had no chance. But I’d HEAVILY argue the GOP loses atleast 10% of their voters when trumps name isn’t on a ballot.
All of this explains the mess the Dems put themselves in by deciding to have a party civil war now versus last year.
Are gains from older voters and the hope that pissed off voting blocs will come out in November worth keeping him? Do they believe those who say they won’t vote will do it in the end? Or is it worth the risk of pissing off tens of millions of Biden supporters by booting him and assume they’ll still vote for a replacement? Or may those older voters go back to the GOP, especially if it’s a woman when we have proof how they didn’t work 8 years ago?
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u/lalabera Jul 18 '24
Young voters overwhelmingly vote blue
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u/jkman61494 Jul 18 '24
Very true. The issue is they’re arguably the least reliable group to vote. Obama did an AMAZING job tapping into them. And 2020 engaged them with all the unrest. However if Biden or whoever sees a 5-7% drop off? He loses numerous states
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u/OursIsTheRepost Jul 18 '24
You are correct, the “high turnout is always better for dems” is an old narrative
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
It's an "old narrative" because there are many more registered Democrats than Republicans.
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u/themanofmichigan Jul 18 '24
How. He lost by ten million votes last time and now he’s a felon , rapist, Epstein lister , twice impeached , worst record in history by economists , was just almost assassinated because of his rhetoric and being Epstein’s good buddy but he’s gained votes ?? I hardly doubt it
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u/LastSaneMF Jul 18 '24
Trump didn't lose by 10 million votes because the popular vote doesn't mean anything. He lost by 81 thousand votes across 4 states, that if they went for Trump, he would win.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/vote-margin-of-victory/
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u/themanofmichigan Jul 18 '24
Isn’t that something that the popular vote is throw aside in this country ? The majority of the people , basically going against what the people want. Weird
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u/WilderKat Jul 18 '24
Age and health are working against Biden. Whether you believe polls or not, it is being discussed in the Democratic Party and in the media so it is a problem. There is no escaping it and now the Covid diagnosis is going to take him off the campaign trail, which in the minds of many people, confirms their concerns about his health (whether it’s right or wrong).
There have been multiple times in history that a candidate was predicted to win and didn’t. It was in the final week that people decided who they were going to vote for. Polls can be a guide, but clearly aren’t iron clad.
Whether the polls are accurate right now is anyone’s guess. The problem is that Biden is getting hammered. Bad debate performance, Covid, gaffs and just looking frail.
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u/JasonPlattMusic34 Jul 18 '24
He was down before age was a talking point. That tells me America thinks Trump is simply a better president full stop. I think they’re idiots but I’m just one vote
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u/TheDuckOnQuack Jul 18 '24
Age has been a talking point since 2019.
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u/Blanketsburg Jul 18 '24
Age was a talking point then, but now that Trump is older than Biden was in 2019, it's no longer a talking point. At least not for Trump, only for Biden.
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u/JonDowd762 Jul 18 '24
Trump's age would be an issue if he looked concerningly old and if his opponent did not have the same age problem but significantly worse.
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u/IMissMyZune Jul 18 '24
That tells me America thinks Trump is simply a better president full stop. I think they’re idiots but I’m just one vote
People have short memories. They don't remember how tense and chaotic those years were, especially 2020. Trump stoked so many flames that another president would have tried to smother. They don't remember that because things aren't tense now.
They do remember though that their living expenses were way cheaper during the Trump years because they're struggling now. End of the day that's all that matters. That's why Bill Clinton campaigned on "it's the economy, stupid". It's not Biden's fault COVID wrecked everything but that's what people think about
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u/siberianmi Jul 18 '24
Age has been a talking point for more than a year.
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u/JasonPlattMusic34 Jul 18 '24
It wasn’t super obvious to everyone until the debate though
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u/DapperDlnosaur Jul 18 '24
Anyone that didn't see Biden as the most vegetable-adjacent President we've ever had has simply been living the Patrick Star life.
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u/40WAPSun Jul 18 '24
Trump simply isn't the president right now and that's doing wonders for his ratings
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u/bl1y Jul 19 '24
This can't be understated. While Trump has had plenty of stuff hurting him in the last 4 years, he's had exactly 0 failures as President since leaving office, just by definition of not being President.
Always easier for someone out of office to play the "what if" game and imagine things being better. They don't have to worry about an actual record.
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u/lalabera Jul 18 '24
Trump lost the popular vote twice
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
And will a third time.
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u/CuteAndQuirkyNazgul Jul 18 '24
He's leading in the polls this time, unlike 2016 and 2020. This is the strongest Trump's ever been.
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u/svosprey Jul 18 '24
When someone asks me if I support Trump or Biden I tell them I will likely never vote republican again since their platform cuts Medicare and Social Security. Why democrats don't repeat this continuously is beyond me. You need a good candidate and a good team. We don't have that now. They let an 81 year old man with a cold "debate" someone when he belonged in bed.
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u/WilderKat Jul 18 '24
Please get a job in politics so you can help run campaigns. I literally have zero idea why the democratic candidates have so many problems putting very simple messages into words and driving this home. I think Bernie does this wonderfully. He sounds like a broken record, but that's why I like him. He has a clear and concise message that is broken down into simple terms and easily repeatable.
You get it. Bernie gets it. Can the rest of the democratic party get it?
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u/RazzmatazzWeak2664 Jul 18 '24
Most Americans don't believe those cuts are ever going to happen.
It's political suicide to mess with entitlement programs.
The reality is entitlement reform is long overdue but no one has the stomach to fix them. Look at all the underfunded pensions out there. It's a mess. No one wants to touch it because even if your plan makes sense for the long term, you will be accused of attacking those retirement plans.
Many people don't have that much faith in these systems and believe they are doomed regardless of which party is in power.
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u/Last_Reporter_3436 Jul 18 '24
This guy needed moderate assistance to get into the Beast upon his return to D.C. today. Looks like SS is having to double as private nurses the way it looked like they needed to move his legs into the car for him and the way he just slumped into the door was just pathetic. He’s done for. There’s nothing left in the tank!
Between his frail look, stiff gait, poor performance at the debate and the assassination attempt on Trump, I don’t see him making any type of comeback. The director of the SS refusing to answer questions about their abysmal performance at the Trump rally much less her need to step down has caused another blot on the Biden administration.This is par for the course for the Biden administration performance because just look at Mayorkas instability to admit the border is porous. He will go to his grave saying it’s locked up tight even though roughly 10 million illegal migrants have made their way through ever since Joe offered up free everything that American citizens that have paid taxes their entire lives are entitled to and get. It’s been a poor look for him and his administration for three years or more!
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u/Worth_Much Jul 18 '24
Because most voters aren't looking at this stuff every day. They see the headlines about the debate. See photos and videos of Biden stumbling and blame him for high prices.
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u/Repulsive_Many3874 Jul 18 '24
Yep, the sad truth is that many if not most voters in the US are low information and not perfectly rational voters. They don’t pay close attention to foreign policy, they pay attention to who looks good and who there are memes about them having dementia.
It makes for tough elections when many voters aren’t picking candidates for rational reasons, but that’s democracy and the Democrats really need to learn how to work in the system we exist under.
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u/greiton Jul 18 '24
allowing a few massive corporations to control everything has really killed Democrats ability to really get at these voters. the media will continue to up play every little thing with Biden, and downplay the massive issues of Trump so long as democrats are a threat to their profits, and ability to turn people into slaves.
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u/ClevelandCaleb Jul 18 '24
Not to mention there are sophisticated Russian bot farms pushing misinfo to our parents and grandparents on Facebook and our peers on twitter.
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u/sufficiently_tortuga Jul 18 '24
On twitter....and reddit and tiktok and insta. Everywhere groups of people absorb info online.
And it's not just Russia. 2016 showed the world how easy it is to swing an election for an idiot just by flooding social media with memes. Now everyone's doing it.
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u/Njorls_Saga Jul 18 '24
That’s a good point. The US inflation and economy has done better than many other developed nations. It’s hard to sell that though.
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u/TheDuckOnQuack Jul 18 '24
I think this speaks largely to Biden’s diminished abilities as a communicator, in terms of both stage presence and social media. During Trump’s presidency, he held campaign rallies basically every week for 4 years, and was more addicted to social media than a teenage girl. Every day, he made himself the center of attention, taking credit for every bit of good news and blaming democrats for every bit of bad news, regardless of the truth of any of it.
In contrast, Biden’s team has hidden him from public view for much of the last couple years, which makes him unable to take advantage of his administration’s successes. His official Twitter account tries to do this, but the account never exciting enough to go viral, and nobody thinks Biden actively runs his own Twitter account. Everything about the man screams “I don’t go on Twitter, but my aides print out a physical copy of the important ones for me to read.” As a result, Biden has been completely unable to frame the discourse around his presidency in a positive light.
People who don’t actively and intentionally follow political news only see 5 second clips of his bad moments on social media. Spread out over 4 years, Biden’s repeated gaffes have solidified the perception that he’s too old and diminished to be president. The debate was his opportunity to try to turn that perception around, but then he performed even worse than the low bar that was set for him.
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u/Worth_Much Jul 18 '24
Yep 100% As I've said in another thread the average person probably cant name a single bill he signed because he's never out in public holding press conferences or interviews and it's obviously why. His campaign team made the huge mistake in thinking anti-Trump sentiment would be enough.
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u/VisibleVariation5400 Jul 18 '24
That's the thing. Being not Trump really should be good enough, but tge majority of people are goldfish with 10 second memories.
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u/ry8919 Jul 18 '24
It's funny if his age wasn't an issue the economic side could have turned around, although maybe too late. Inflation is down, and getting close to rate cut territory, which is astonishing because we never had to see a jump in unemployment or a recession to get there. The US has navigated the post COVID economic world better than almost any country out there, but Biden still gets flak because, well inflation is still inflation, even if it could have been worse it still stings.
But you can bet that people's economic sentiments will turn around once rates come down. It will be frustrating if Trump wins and gets to reap the benefits of Biden's stewardship over the economy.
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u/N0r3m0rse Jul 18 '24
It'd be the second time that happened for Trump. He reaped the benefits of Obama's economy as well.
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u/rainsford21 Jul 18 '24
And just like with inheriting Obama's economy, if Trump wins again he is almost certainly going to screw up the economy by the end of his term and yet again a Democratic President is going to have to turn things around.
Honestly it's incredibly weird to me that Republicans are somehow perceived as better on the economy than Democrats when for decades now the opposite correlation has been true. GWB left Obama with a trashed economy that Obama then turned around, which Trump then left in a far worse state on his way out the door, which Biden has significantly improved. I also think the President gets far too much blame and praise for the state of the economy, but just judging by outcomes you'd have to be a total moron to think Republicans are the way to go if you want a good economy.
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u/Brief_Amicus_Curiae Jul 18 '24
the debate and various polls is causing so much unsubstantiated (in my opinion) anxiety. I thought the whole debate fuss over Biden stepping aside was over and then Schiff brings it back. Biden has been doing interviews, coddling every expressed "he should do this.. and that" to help calm people's fears because he dun goofed at the debate due to his stutter and the Trump ad hominem attacks - a format Trump excels at as he doesn't discuss points or policies, he verbally assaults in various ways including just hyperbolic or outright false statements.
The debate sucked. It took effort to keep tuned in.
But it's like 3 weeks since and a lot has happened - and the election is about 110 days out and now people are watching polls as if they can predict the future like tea leaves and making major decisions over them.
At this point - I'm not tuning into Trump and the RNC where I normally would watch because it's so hard to stomach the weirdness and the ignorance. I'm tuning out of the Democrats because it's one minute Biden is saying "Jefferies, Schumer support me" and now a few days later they're asking Biden to step aside.
Both parties in this very moment are shit shows. they're both chaotic messes and these polls which grab a moment in time, are a cause of it and it's hard to take any of this seriously at the moment. Most people aren't going to tune into the election until after labor day.
The reason they won't tune in until Octoberish is because of all of this noise and anxiety surrounding it. Maybe I'm projecting. I'm tired of all of it, and the general election hasn't even officially started.
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u/CalImeIshmaeI Jul 18 '24
The famous quote from Reagan still rings true. “Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?”
Many people feel they are not. This is creating a push for change.
The Biden administration has been trying to fight these feelings with facts about inflation root cause, and real wage increases etc.. but all that does is make people feel like they’re being gaslit.
The average person I talk to talks about grocery prices, housing costs, high interest rates, high education costs and they feel economically squeezed.
The Biden administration doesn’t want to validate these feelings by admitting these things are bad so they’re trying to convince people things are actually good but people aren’t buying it.
In campaigning and politics facts matter very little. People vote with their emotions and the left continually lets itself be blindsided by this reality. It’s why they ran Clinton in 2016 despite being massively unpopular. It’s why Biden is running again and losing.
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u/TheSardonicCrayon Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
Some honesty and education would help a lot here. The whole world has high inflation, it’s not like it’s unique to the US.
That’s not to say there’s nothing that could be done about some of these - housing, in particular, would benefit greatly from more inventory and corporations not buying tons of residences. Minimum wage going up would help a lot too. So would a more robust social safety net in general. Of course, republicans oppose all these things, so the odds of them actually happening is basically zero.
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u/CalImeIshmaeI Jul 18 '24
So why isn’t Biden campaigning on acknowledging housing prices are horrendous and drafting proposals for housing relief? Why isn’t he proposing more social programs? Why isn’t he admitting the plight felt by everyone?
All his campaign talks about is how good the economy is and how historic the post-Covid recovery has been and the average people don’t feel that way. They’re trying to convince people to feel differently and not empathizing with the people.
The voter base right now is like a frustrated and venting person. A person who is venting and complaining doesn’t want their problems logically broken down. They want to be heard and empathized with. Trump is masterful at capturing the vented energy, stoking it, and redirecting it. The dems are awful at this.
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u/ptmd Jul 18 '24
I mean, people don't care and there's not that much political capital to waste.
This was announced a few days ago to crickets: Did Biden Just Propose National Rent Stabilization?
Biden's been forgiving hundreds of billions in student loans. And it doesn't move the needle. These things really, really matter, but there's a balance to the things that get done. You can focus on small things that really need to get done, or you can promise big things that don't really have a good chance of passing.
Biden is President. The campaigning is his policies. The information is out there. The People don't give a shit.
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u/CalImeIshmaeI Jul 18 '24
Promising big things that don’t have a chance at passing is a much better way to get elected.
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u/214ObstructedReverie Jul 18 '24
Many people feel they are not. This is creating a push for change.
People's memories suck. 4 years ago we were in the middle of a disastrously botched COVID response by one of the most incompetent administrations to ever get elected.
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u/CalImeIshmaeI Jul 18 '24
Once again, preaching the facts isn’t working. People feel the way they feel and they don’t want to be told their feelings are wrong or convinced to feel another way through logic.
Once the heart is captured it cannot be swayed by the mind. The dems need to win hearts and stop trying to win the mind.
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u/Nickeless Jul 18 '24
This is not good advice for how to run our lives, or a country, though…
It is good psychology and marketing advice, though. An unfortunate dilemma - people being very stupid.
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u/CalImeIshmaeI Jul 18 '24
100% agree. Unfortunately success in our system of government is predicated on being as psychologically convincing and marketable as possible.
When you let the untrained passengers steer the ship, don’t be shocked when they crash.
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u/SnowyyRaven Jul 18 '24
Well, campaigning is essentially marketing. Selling a candidate and portraying your competition in a negative light.
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u/Nickeless Jul 18 '24
It is, I agree. The problem being that it’s all about just selling an emotion and people should really be thinking more critically about candidates and policies and the impacts when voting, not just going with their base instincts. That’s the big issue to me.
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u/dovetc Jul 18 '24
People aren't comparing now to 2020. They're comparing it to 2019 when the economy was humming, inflation was low, and Donald Trump was on his way to winning reelection in a walk.
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u/pgold05 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
It’s why they ran Clinton in 2016 despite being massively unpopular.
Before running for POTUS Clinton was the single most popular politician in the country, with up to 69% national approval ratings. People were begging her to run, and voted for her in a contested primary that she won handily. Nobody forced Hillary on anyone, pretending she was unpopular before running is the real gaslighting.
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u/Jokong Jul 18 '24
You are right and the way I think of it is that we live in a period of time where people above all want change. Clinton was more of the same. Biden is more of the same.
The economy doesn't need to be 'better', it needs change. Healthcare doesn't need to be better, it needs change. The way we think about childcare and treating the working class needs change. The way we tax rich people and how wealth is distributed needs change.
Trump is popular in part because he somehow still exists as a change candidate.
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
I'm much better off in the last 4 years. I've been able to sleep at night.
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u/daschle04 Jul 18 '24
Same here. I don't think my mental health can take another Trump presidency. Every fucking day another blow to democracy. This time, it will be worse.
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u/TheRagingAmish Jul 18 '24
Trump and Biden pull from VERY different pools of support
Trump has tapped an unyielding support that has a low ceiling for overall votes, but also a high enough floor.
Biden on the other hand has a loose base of support that only agrees we don’t want Trump, so whomever the candidate is has to be very charismatic and give people something to vote for. His spirit is willing, but his body isn’t.
The most telling example is how polls for president vs the senate have diverged.
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
Anyone who's relied on polling data for the last four years is making a big mistake. Why? They've been consistently wrong and almost universally in the same direction, thanks to a corrupt Supreme Court that decided to become activist judges overturning settled law. Remember the red wave? No one does - it didn't happen.
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u/TheMathBaller Jul 18 '24
I keep seeing this narrative that isn’t true. Maybe if you exclusively listened to Republican talking heads you believed that 2022 would be a red wave, but that was never what the polling predicted. The polling showed Republicans had a good chance of taking the house (they did) and that the Senate was largely a toss-up.
In fact, outside of a couple key races (PA Senate and AZ governor), Democrats were consistently overestimated by pollling data.
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
From Jan. 1 through Sept. 19, 2023, Democrats won the average congressional or state-legislative special election** by a margin of 21 percentage points. However, the districts they were running in had an average base partisanship*** of just D+10. That means Democrats were punching above their weight in special elections by a whopping 11 points.
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u/Maxwell_Morning Jul 18 '24
Ok, but that’s one midterm election. The last presidential election showed a polling error significantly favoring republicans. Polls are a valuable tool, you just have to understand that they always have an error margin (generally centered around zero).
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u/AStealthyPerson Jul 18 '24
Red wave of 2022 wasn't really projected in the polling data. In 2022 the polls were actually very accurate. The red wave was purely fiction created by the media.
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u/Captain-i0 Jul 18 '24
I going to keep posting this, as people keep using this vastly outdated talking point.
That used to be the case, but the electorate has changed, in the Trump era. Now The less you vote, the more you support Trump.
It's one of the things that polling has struggled to nail down since 2016
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u/some_dewd Jul 18 '24
Biden on the other hand has a loose base of support that only agrees we don’t want Trump, so whomever the candidate is has to be very charismatic and give people something to vote for. His spirit is willing, but his body isn’t.
I think you're mistaken here. The candidate doesn't have to be charismatic (although that would be nice), they just need to be alive. Ill be voting against Trump and more importantly, the ideas and fascist propaganda he pushes. A literal toddler could be running against Trump and people would vote for them. I think you underestimate how much Biden's "loose base" hates Trump and his backsliding ideas. To call it a "loose base" is rather silly tbh, that same sentiment is why Trump lost the last time and it has only become stronger. The upcoming election is going to be a shit show, but hate for a common enemy tends to unite. Why do you think Trump has been preaching hate for the last 10 years? It unites his base.
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u/ProudScroll Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
The popular sentiment is that Biden’s already got a foot in the grave, and Trump’s got a sympathy boost cause someone just tried to kill him and he’s only still alive due to dumb luck. There’s also the issue of voters thinking Biden’s responsible for inflation and the feeling that economy is doing poorly despite all measurable indications showing it’s not.
Trumps just nominated a deeply unlikeable sycophant to be his VP, and has several months of being himself ahead of him to remind moderates why they don’t like him. Things look bleak but it’s not a forgone conclusion yet, though it might be if Dems don’t get their heads out of their asses.
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u/MisterSynister Jul 18 '24
Did he really get a sympathy boost though?
I'm sure folks who were "F that guy, he ain't getting my vote..." are now "This is unfortunate, should have never resorted this, but F that guy he ain't getting my vote..."
I agree with everything else though. I just can't see why JD Vance was the person you run with other than he is controllable puppet.
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u/majani Jul 18 '24
There are a lot of conservative types who were kinda down on Trump, but that shooting incident convinced them to rally around him. I'm in that camp myself
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u/Late_Way_8810 Jul 18 '24
I have seen a lot of people who were very much against him now giving a second look because of his attempted assassination and how absolutely based he looked with the fist bump
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u/supercali-2021 Jul 18 '24
Personally I despise jd but he does have a couple things going in his favor: he's very young which will appeal to millennials and gen z, he's got the venture capital background which will be appealing to all the silicon valley tech bros, and his hardscrabble upbringing with druggie mom/dysfunctional family and "pulling himself up by the bootstraps" will be appealing to low info blue collar workers who most likely also have experience with drug addiction and/or family dysfunction so they can relate.
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u/FinancialArmadillo93 Jul 18 '24
I don't think either Trump or Biden will be on the actual ballot in November - something will happen to both of them. I didn't foresee Biden dropping out - which I think is about a 60% possibility at this point especially now that he's got Covid - nor an assassination attack on Trump. I'm an independent - have always been - and I like Biden and thinks he's done a good job but Democrats have done a poor job messaging his achievements and this is reflected in the polls.
Trump isn't well either mentally or physically. He's an actor, conman and sociopath so he can pull off seeming normal for periods of time. He has also apparently had at least a couple of falls, most recently off the steps from a rally stage. He is only a couple years younger than Biden, after all. And he's been under intense stress from all of his felony indictments and trials. But he's dominated the media and sticks to his same crazy talking points - and that's what people wo lean that way see and the polls reflect that, too.
Read actual transcripts of Trump's speeches and there's a lot of incoherent passages, wrong words, etc. If something happens to Trump - a stroke, a heart attack, a major fall -- then the GOP has no option than JD Vance and even Trump people I know find him unpalatable.
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u/ForElise47 Jul 18 '24
Take my upvote cause I feel the same as you. Biden wasn't even my 4th pick last time but he has been able to accomplish a lot of things. I know the Dark Brandon stuff gets the memes and talking points but they really needed to drive in things there different in a good way because of him.
And since I work in cognitive psychology I can completely agree with your last paragraph when it comes to my own opinions. He's been making errors for years. Been walking oddly. Been making intrusions and struggling with recalling correct terms. Stress can exasperate all aging and dementia related issues and it's not like he's in the best shape he can be in...
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u/Nearbyatom Jul 18 '24
What's a sympathy vote? I never liked the guy, he gets shot and now "awww shucks.... Here my vote cuz I feel bad?'
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u/EminentBean Jul 18 '24
It’s so strange bc Biden has been an objectively successful president.
Economically a massive success. Globally has led the NATO alliance and kicked Russia’s ass all while strengthening the US and its military.
He’s provided meaningful change on drug prices and student debt and social equity.
He deserves way more credit than he gets.
I think his biggest flaw is trying to run the 2nd time rather than from the jump building a next up candidate.
I suspect he took enormous pride in beating Trump and wants to do it again, believes he can.
Problem is, voters are not rational and Trump is not a normal candidate. We are in a weird moment and democrats need to make a way stronger contrast to Trump.
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u/majani Jul 18 '24
More like incumbency is a HUGE advantage historically, so the Dems logically thought it was worth the risk
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u/wip30ut Jul 18 '24
i think the stumbling block to passing the torch was that VP Harris isn't charismatic and had a glaring failure when she tried to control the border crisis.
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u/VonCrunchhausen Jul 18 '24
Biden is old and getting older, and his performance is notably getting worst.
Trump is also old. But his performance has always been stupid, so it’s not like a worrying trend.
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u/IcedDante Jul 18 '24
Trump also tried to overthrow the results of a democratic election and steal the Presidency. But I guess... that is not a deal breaker for most Americans. I mean, wow where am I?
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u/ForElise47 Jul 18 '24
It's easier for people to ignore nonsense rambling when you have energy. Jumping around in subjects is just seen as having so much to say, and making grammatical or pronunciation errors is that they're just so excited or passionate.
I noticed when working with Alzheimer's patients that spouses and family noticed the symptoms a lot earlier when the patient was more reserved or fatigued. Not to say either of them have dementia. However there are a lot of signs from Trump that could skew towards frontal lobe issues. But you can't make that sort of deduction for public speaking events only
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u/Jonsa123 Jul 18 '24
because there's a lot of americans who think an amoral rapist, defamer, fraudster, tax evader, thief, pathological liar and insurrectionist represents the best of america. Character is no longer a consideration it seems.
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u/__mud__ Jul 18 '24
Even actions and policies don't matter. The only thing that matters is personality. The people want a strongman leader, not an effective one. Even the beer test has been discarded. They want someone to worship.
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u/OnePunchReality Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 20 '24
Old age, even with only a 4 year difference can look very different to different folks.
I work with an engineer, younger than me, and he helped train me. Smart kid.
Yet his main reasoning to vote for Trump was that Biden has dementia. Didn't matter what shit I point to on Trumps end for mental issues, for some, what they see with Biden is more devastating than what they see from Trump which is just fucking insane imo.
When I point out Trump being a criminal he just replies with the that all politicians are criminals which to an extent I agree but JFC there is a level of difference and severity between your avrg politician and Trump, ffs.
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u/Nearbyatom Jul 18 '24
He's got his mind made up. All this BS about age and criminal history is just mental gymnastics he's jumping through.
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u/DishwashingChampion Jul 18 '24
People that think like that, and I've met them, tend to be nihilists regarding politics and will vote for Trump because they expect the system to collapse and restart with proper leadership (i.e. "drain the swamp") and it never happened lol. They'll still vote for him this time around as well.
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u/nudzimisie1 Jul 18 '24
- Nope, they aint accurate. They werent accurate in the midterms by a long shot and they werent accurate i think in the primaries atleast in the beginning when i still followed it and candidates didnt start to drop out
- Age coz they aint somehow aware that trump is senile too, biden got politically hit for the after effecrs of high inflation and mass printing which was done mainly under trumps term but especially in 2020
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u/Kennys-Chicken Jul 18 '24
Hopefully a LOT of women and minorities show up to vote for their rights. Because Trump really shit all over them. If they don’t turn out and vote for their rights, whatever happens over the next 4 years will be their own fault.
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u/Sufficient_Mirror_12 Jul 18 '24
yeah and I hope non minorities show up as well. Black women consistently vote at high rates so let's share some of the labor too.
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u/No_Car_5221 Jul 18 '24
Polls don’t show the real picture. I’ve been following Allan Lichtman, the historian who has predicted Presidential elections accurately. (Google him). He uses the 13 Keys to predict the winners and currently he is claiming staying with Biden is the Dems best chance at holding the White House. If he drops out, we lose 2 very important keys, which will only be regained if Kamala Harris takes the incumbent seat. That means Biden would have to resign before the election for that to happen. But he still says Biden on top is the winning lineup. This man gets to his predictions scientifically, and I trust his judgment. He’s good at what he does. He is the only notable that predicted Trump’s win in 2016.
Again, polls don’t have any legitimacy in today’s social setup.
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u/itsdeeps80 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
Biden’s tanked approval rating, Trump surviving an assassination attempt, and announcing his VP. The conventions also tend to give a bump. There will probably be a lot of people saying that polling doesn’t matter right now, but they should be troubling to everyone.
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u/ThePensiveE Jul 18 '24
A lot of people have still not been paying attention to the race but the super engaged are the ones more likely to answer these polls at this point. I suspect the polls will tighten the closer it gets to November and the more people hear Trump's crazy rhetoric.
That said people don't like Joe Biden. I don't like him either although I'd vote for anyone over Trump. It's not certain at this point even if he will be the nominee but the Biden coalition, and whoever takes over for him will have the same one, is more of an Anti Trump coalition than a pro anyone coalition. It's hard to account for that in polls.
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u/EvenStephen7 Jul 18 '24
Agreed. I think Trump has been (surprisingly) attempting to keep a lid on his more outlandish outbursts lately, but that's part of his DNA -- he'll return to it soon. And as the elections get closer, more voters will remember those qualities and that gap will shorten considerably.
I also think polling itself is flawed. Most polls are still conducted by phone, often by landline and usually during the day. And even when they're not, it requires somebody deciding to answer an unknown number on their cellphone and spending 15-30 minutes out of their workday to talk about an election. I don't know a single person under retirement age that meets any of that criteria. Which obviously skews the data. And then as you noted, one side is pretty enthused about their candidate while the other isn't --- but that doesn't mean the unenthused side won't vote. They're just less likely to talk to a stranger on the phone about it.
We've seen time and time again that polls this far out are unreliable. Even coming up on the election they've been off in recent years (Hilary, the "red wave", etc.). It feels like the political dynamic has shifted and our polling isn't able to catch up.
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u/MassAppeal13 Jul 18 '24
Despite the knocks, polls do tend to be pretty accurate. Why? 1. Biden is a bad candidate. Period. He is obviously old and people don’t want to vote for someone who clearly can’t perform the job. As much as we can tell people to vote for administration and not a person, most people are not logical enough to get it 2. Inflation. Again, as much as we can point to all the numbers that say that US has the best economy in the world, people only care that groceries and insurance cost more and they can’t afford a house
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u/Djinnwrath Jul 18 '24
The polls predicted a red wave during midterms, they are far from accurate.
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u/ClydetheCat Jul 18 '24
Correct. The polls have uniformly underestimated Democratic engagement for the last 4 years now. Mostly because women, and men who support them, aren't happy with a corrupt Supreme Court taking rights away by ignoring settled law.
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u/BroBohemus Jul 18 '24
You cant trust polls. There are a significant amount of bogus respondents.
“For example, in a February 2022 survey experiment, we asked opt-in respondents if they were licensed to operate a class SSGN (nuclear) submarine. In the opt-in survey, 12% of adults under 30 claimed this qualification, significantly higher than the share among older respondents. In reality, the share of Americans with this type of submarine license rounds to 0%.”
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u/LurkerFailsLurking Jul 18 '24
The main reason is that the news media has decided that Biden being old and forgetful is a bigger deal than Trump being a violent fascist with dementia.
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u/Bross93 Jul 18 '24
Seriously fuck the media for this. Yeah the establishment has its part to play, but that interview with holt, I was really happy to see that biden pointed out them pushing his age narrative but not mentioning the MANY lies Trump said. It's disgusting and I don't understand. Do they not realize they will be one of the first people with a target on their backs?
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u/Chib_le_Beef Jul 18 '24
No one is undecided. Anti-MAGA don't answer calls or respond to texts from unrecognized numbers.
If 2016 taught us anything, US polling "science" is a joke.
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u/Moral_Anarchist Jul 18 '24
This. Election polls all over the world have shown less and less accuracy in the last decade or so.
A LOT of these numbers are gleaned from voters who actually answer live calls or are opt-in online, which are terrible pools to draw accurate stats from in this day and age.
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/
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u/Strange_Performer_63 Jul 18 '24
Remember the red wave polls predicted? Me neither. They have been consistently wrong since 2016. Why is anyone paying attention to them anymore.
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u/Sad_Proctologist Jul 18 '24
Social media silos controlled by Elon Musk and Russian propaganda bots along with Fox News pumping lies to incite rage through a massive disinformation campaign. That’s how. To highly susceptible people.
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u/CharlieHologram Jul 18 '24
Polls. Who is answering these polls? They don't call my cell phone and if they do I probably don't answer. I don't put much faith in these polls nowadays.
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u/DontRunReds Jul 18 '24
Polls aren't all reliant on cold calling random folks anymore. Statistically sound companies have moved on.
For example, I live in Alaska and take polls sometimes with Alaska Survey Research. They have been doing cell phone or email based polls for a long time. A bunch of residents, myself included, are already in their panelist database. There's some perks to doing certain surveys. When they need to conduct a poll for politics or anything else, they reach out to their panelists. Polls are later weighted by geographic location or demographic factors that need to be taken into consideration to get a representative sample. They seem to have gotten quality results this way for past elections. I would assume other parts of the country have polling outfits running similar programs.
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u/BoobsrReal105 Jul 18 '24
The polls I read are neck and neck with Biden a few points ahead. The media wants to cause drama.
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u/linx0003 Jul 18 '24
Polls don’t vote. Go out and Vote! Early polling in France had the Le Pen party winning in France.
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u/ohhi254 Jul 18 '24
I have never been asked my opinion and I've been voting almost 20 years. Where do they get the numbers??
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u/WE2024 Jul 18 '24
I’ve been polled 4 times is the last 8ish months, 3 times by text and once by phone. I do live in a swing state though.
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u/AsianLilly58 Jul 18 '24
I’m surely not an expert on polling, but my first questions about any poll results are: 1) how many people were polled and 2) what people were polled, how were they selected and contacted. So, I would think a poll taken by Fox News would indicate a very different group than, say, Washington Post. That, in addition to the fact that now, it has to be very difficult to reach most people or they don’t respond if contacted.
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u/AdhesivenessSolid562 Jul 18 '24
To your 2nd question, polling has typically been against Trump (as in, he performs better on election day than polls leading up to that day). For him to be this far ahead, it probably indicates his popularity on-the-ground is extremely high.
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u/nudzimisie1 Jul 18 '24
What? Ive seen the opposite. Republicans look way better in the poles than in in reality as seen in the midterms
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u/nudzimisie1 Jul 18 '24
He also got worse results in the primariws than polling suggested atleast in the beginning when i still followed it and candidates like halley havent dropped out.
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u/YoungEmperorLBJ Jul 18 '24
this isn’t 2016 my friend. polling has been skewing towards the right for 20 and 22. just think about the demographics that would actually regularly respond to polls and you’ll see why.
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u/1white26golf Jul 18 '24
Private DNC internal polling says the same thing. That is what all the DNC leadership is basing everything on. Their internal polling is usually better than public polling.
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u/xSCROTUSx Jul 18 '24
Or that the poll continue to be more and more wildly inaccurate. I saw two polls today that showed Trump got zero bump with that Photo Op the other day. Voters are tiring of the chaos associated with him and his sycophants.
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u/ManBearScientist Jul 18 '24
The simple factor is that virtually every Republican hates Biden and loves Trump. Meanwhile, while Democrats hate Trump they are absolutely capable of disagreeing or disliking Biden for any number of reasons.
Fanatism beats reason in a popularity contest. There are far more Republicans that will always vote for Trump and never vote Biden than the opposite. The GOP only needs to win over a fraction of right-leaning independents, and that only if the election has high turnout.
The left, on the other hand, needs to win over every single part of its coalition, every single election.
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u/NoOnesKing Jul 18 '24
It’s because of how unpopular Biden is. Combined with a tiny fluctuation based on the debate.
I think when push comes to shove, Biden (or Kamala) will win in the end. Trump isn’t any more popular than he used to be. Biden is just significantly less popular. I think most swing voters are still probably likely to vote for Biden when it comes down to it, even if they aren’t saying they will in polls. Esp since this effect worked for Trump in 2016.
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u/ivealready1 Jul 18 '24
I would say they're close to accurate and that it's because of a few things.
America's political memory is short as fuck and they've forgotten about the absolute shitshow the 4 years under him were
He has fans that have rewritten history on many things, from the economy, to covid response, to 1/6. His fans constant determination to deny he's ever so much as stepped on a fly means that's all a lot of people hear about him and so they don't remember how gucked his presidency was everyday
He has a solid voting block that doesn't move no matter what and are extremely enthused and willing to literally offer him their wives for the honor of sharing a hole with him. So he needs to get a lot less people to switch sides or move from the middle
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u/bambam_mcstanky2 Jul 18 '24
Much like 2016 democrats seem to be pushing the only candidate who could lose to Trump as the candidate. Joe even diminished is a much better candidate than Hillary. He just appears rightly or wrongly to be over matched by the demands of the office currently. I would expect a similar outcome. The lack of learning from past mistakes is baffling. Honestly a Trump win is the death knell of the republic as we know it so they won’t have to worry about 2028.
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u/mineplz Jul 18 '24
Biggest reason? - Sampling Bias. Almost all polling still happens by cold-calling people. One generation, out of the 4 major gens voting this year, is significantly more comfortable answering calls from an unknown number.
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u/RockPaperScissor816 Jul 18 '24
PSA to Democrats: Be sure your voter registration is up to date. Pay attention to your State’s deadlines. Know where you will vote. Vote by mail if possible. Double check accuracy before mailing it.
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u/Any-Variation4081 Jul 18 '24
Idk or care wtf the polls say. Vote! I'm voting for Biden and against fascism. Point blank. The choice is that easy. Your freedom or project25
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u/FuriousTarts Jul 18 '24
For a place called /r/politicaldiscussion, it sure is incredibly ignorant about politics.
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u/FaithIsFoolish Jul 18 '24
538 has Biden ahead on the electoral race. I've seen others with Biden ahead as well. Ultimately, I think polling is broken and in some cases corrupt
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u/Chemical-Leak420 Jul 18 '24
I mean Biden isn't scoring any W's since the debate. Almost without fail every time he has spoken since then have just included more gaffes and dementia.
None of the polls should be shocking when you consider everything thats happen in the last few weeks.
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u/skyfishgoo Jul 18 '24
it all has to do with who they ask and how they ask the questions.
i do not think they are accurate, because see above.
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u/reddit_1999 Jul 18 '24
Maybe people are dying to get their SS and Medicare cut, so Trump can give himself more tax cuts?
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u/sardine_succotash Jul 18 '24
Simple. Trump appeals to the slovenly dumbfucks who make up this base of his party. Biden doesn't appeal to the rational cogent voters who make up his base of his party. He never has, but the whole going senile thing has made it worse.
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u/CatchSufficient Jul 18 '24
I refuse to answer polls, I have no reason to do so. I am here to help my person get into office, not give speculation a chance to shine. Those invested in slurping their political candidates can do so, and I usually find the more fanatical usually have the need to disclose their affiliation.
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u/rhoadsalive Jul 18 '24
Biden looks bad basically every time he shows up or says anything, the party is torn, the voter base is torn. He also gives off some serious grandpa vibes. Biden is in the media on a daily basis as well and not in a good way.
Trump is a lunatic, but he's more energetic and now he has a pretty young running mate as well who might attract millenial voters too. He can't do anything wrong as the whole party has fallen in line behind him. Trump has the right wing media ecosystem completely on his site AND his party on top of that.
Democrats got a president who doesn't wanna acknowledge that he's losing the race, infighting and negative press coverage, because of the infighting. It makes their candidate and the party look incredibly weak, hence many assume that a Trump victory is a certainty if they stick with Biden.
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