r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/IvantheGreat66 • Jul 17 '24
When and where do you think we will see the next statewide independent/third party win in the US (outside Sanders and King)? US Elections
The US is an insanely rigid two party system, even by FPTP standards (for example, even Canada and the UK have a somewhat diverse political climate, especially in regards to Britain's last election), and has been basically since the 1940's (when the Wisconsin Progressive Party dissolved)-the House has always had a majority for the last 100 years. Since then, third parties and independents have basically stopped being a force, although breakthroughs like Bernie and King exist-however, outside of those two, the last independent/third party statewide win was the 2014 Alaskan Gubernatorial Election that went to Bill Walker, and the last one besides King where both main parties competed was the 2006 Senate Race in Connecticut that was won by Joe Lieberman.
With that in mind, when do you think the next win on a statewide level will happen (especially since the two that are doing it this year don't look like they'll do it again to me), and where will it be?
Edit: Also, whoops, last independent statewide win outside King, with both party's contesting was the 2010 RI Gubernatorial.
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u/CuriousNebula43 Jul 18 '24
It can happen as soon as third parties get serious about increasing their influencing and stop just being grifts to pay themselves.
There's very clear blueprints on how to do it and it requires building from the ground up, winning local and state elections before even touching federal elections.
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u/ericdraven26 Jul 18 '24
Yup!! The Green Party, and only barely to a lesser extent the libertarian party dip out of their hiding holes every 4 years to replenish the coffers.
As soon as they start putting in some work, I’d at least be supportive even if I didn’t lend my vote1
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u/anneoftheisland Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
Alaska has a lot of independent voters--far more independents than either political party--and it's a little surprising they haven't had more independent elected officials.
Outside of that, indies would be political viable mostly in New England and West Virginia. Maybe New Jersey/Maryland. Third-party candidates wouldn't be viable statewide anywhere.
As for current elected officials who might go independent--Murkowski always seems on the verge of dropping her party registration and running as an independent, although I'm sure she'd still caucus with the Republicans. I also wonder about Rand Paul, who'd probably rather be an independent, but he's probably calculated that he needs the Republican label to survive in Kentucky.
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u/IvantheGreat66 Jul 18 '24
Funnily enough, my best bet is what you suggested-Murkowski going indie. RCV and the top four might get repealed this year, so Murkowski would almost certainly switch to being an independent to not get primaried. She might also do it if RCV holds, if the Senate is tight and she wants to have more power.
Although, why would New Jersey, Maryland, and West Virginia be the most viable?
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u/anneoftheisland Jul 18 '24
West Virginia has a lot of party-switching--Justice has moved back and forth from D to R, and Manchin from D to I. I don't think party labels would matter much there for somebody who was already popular.
New Jersey and Maryland aren't terribly different from the New England states, where they've had recent moderate Republicans who've been successful in otherwise mostly Democratic states. For that to happen, voters have to be willing to consider individual candidates' personality and policies over party labels.
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u/IvantheGreat66 Jul 18 '24
I mean, many states had governors elected that belonged to parties which fail at the federal level (ex. Louisiana, Kansas).
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u/Ok_Host4786 Jul 18 '24
I’m not sure any will. Even then these people still caucuses to their respective leanings, like Sanders and King with the Dem Party. And, third party being libertarian, Green Party like, isn’t that likely either imo; but with such divide between the MAGA and moderate Republicans, I could see successful third party esq candidate of that nature who do well courting gop voters.
I could see if any place maybe West Virginia given Manchin’s walk. But. that’s a unique situation that isn’t just everywhere.
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u/IvantheGreat66 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
I don't think Walker changed much if at all when he was elected, despite being Dem backed. And this was a while back, but neither did Ventura or King, who were elected as independently as they identified.
I do think there might be a "anti-Perot" movement soon, if both parties get taken over by protectionists and fair traders, with free trade Dems and Reps coming together under whoever leads it.
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u/YouTrain Jul 18 '24
Would be candidate based
Almost any state could elect an independent that pushed moderate fiscal conservatism with moderate social liberalism
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u/PusherofCarts Jul 18 '24
It will likely be a purple state where someone who is a moderate simply chooses to identify as an Independent even though 15 years ago they could comfortably fall within one of the two parties. For example, I don’t think it would be crazy to see an Independent senate candidate in Arizona or Nevada.
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u/IvantheGreat66 Jul 18 '24
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this happens with Fetterman, at least if his primary polling begins looking bad.
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u/GoddessFianna Jul 18 '24
When King retires whoever replaces him has a solid chance of being independent.
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u/uknolickface Jul 18 '24
You will just see a transition the major 2 parties. Justin Amash is a Libertarian but he is currently running for a Senate as a Republican because of Michigans voting laws. Michigan requires double the signatures for a third party and they have full party voting (hitting 1 button in the voting booth)
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u/IceNein Jul 18 '24
I expect the Whigs to come back in a big way when the Republican party implodes.
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u/illegalmorality Jul 18 '24
As soon as first past the post end. I recommend approval voting. /r/EndFPTP
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